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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.42%), Hang Seng +2.52%, Shanghai Composite +1.38% as of 03:10 ET

Dec 28 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities traded mostly higher Thursday. The region was led by the Hang Seng which saw its three big growth-factor sectors outperform; mainland China led by Real Estate. More gains for Seoul, Singapore a notable outperformer. Australia closed on fresh 20-month high, boosted by miners. India's Sensex and Nifty 50 indices reaching fresh record highs. US futures mostly higher, Europe opened with more gains. US dollar lower again after overnight falls, yen, yuan and won all gained. Treasury yields higher across tenors after hitting five-month lows overnight. Crude oil flat, precious and industrial metals small down.

    • Hong Kong-listed shares led Asia higher as the Hang Seng closed at a month-long high. Growth sectors reacted positively to an overnight fall in US Treasury yields as well as improved sentiment in its internet & IT stocks following concessions earlier in the week by Beijing on online gaming. Asia stocks approaching the new year with optimism as tech cycle turns positive, inflation wanes and central banks appear to have capped their rate hikes. Analysts less optimistic on China, despite today's rally, with a Nikkei survey showing economists expect macro growth to slow further next year and its real estate market to remain under pressure.

    • Today, data showed Japan retail sales growth topping expectations, though industrial production fell for first time in three months. A Nikkei survey of business leaders showed expectations of a 5% wages hike next spring, up on the roughly 3% last year. Semiconductors drove a rebound in South Korea industrial production while retail sales also grew. Thailand industrial output dropped for a 14th consecutive month and by more than forecast, its government said it will further increase fiscal spending next year.

    • Banyan Tree (B58.SP) is to buy stakes in hotel management firms owned by China Vanke (2202.HK) for CNY480M ($67M). GOME Retail (493.HK) has partially settled $100M in outstanding bonds through an equity transfer and share conversion. JD.com (9618.HK) said it will raise the pay of many of its front-line employees by almost 100%. Xiaomi (1810.HK) unveiled its first electric vehicle and said it was aiming to be among one of the world's top five carmakers. Korean Airlines (003490.KS) again extended the transaction deadline for the Asiana Airlines (003490.KS) merger until Mar-24.

  • Digest:

    • Japan industrial production registers first drop in three months, South Korea chip production rebounds:

      • Japan November industrial production fell 0.9% m/m, smaller than expected 1.7% decline but reversing October's 1.3% gain. Marked first drop in three months as shipments turned negative and inventories flatlined. Autos, electrical machinery and IT equipment were main drags, offsetting contributions from production machinery and other manufacturing. METI survey projections point to 6.0% rebound in December followed by 7.2% drop in January. November retail sales rose1.0% m/m, stronger than consensus for a 0.5% increase and October's 1.6% decline. Separately, South Korea November industrial production climbed 0.5% m/m, recovering from prior month's 1.6% decline. Gain driven by manufacturing sector as semiconductor production climbed 12.8% following October's 12.6% drop. Strong growth in shipments, reflecting overseas demand for AI chips.

    • BOJ board members divided on stimulus exit timing:

      • Nikkei take on December BOJ Summary of Opinions highlighted board member divisions on stimulus exit timing. BOJ insider noted opinions were arranged beginning from those close to the text of the policy statement. Noted dovish opinions comprised first half of summary, with those members stressing need to confirm virtuous cycle between wages and prices, and to wait on outcome of spring wage talks, before deciding on policy change. Hawkish positions made up latter part of the summary with members noting timing of policy normalization is getting closer. Nikkei noted volume of text was about equal with that from the doves, suggesting BOJ has not formed consensus on stimulus exit timing. However, it also pointed out fact that doves are wanting to monitor future developments marks a change from past meetings when exit discussions were mostly absent.

    • Sovereign and corporate bond markets capping off a strong finish to 2023:

      • Global bonds set to round out a strong finish to 2023 with Bloomberg's Global Aggregate Total Return Index up almost 10% in past two months, highest since 1990. Dovish rate outlook biggest factor behind the bond rally with swaps pricing in at least 150 of rate cuts by Fed, ECB and BOE next year. While expanding supply has been cited as a Treasury headwind over past months, recent auctions have been met with strong demand amid the lower rate backdrop (Bloomberg). Yields extended their move lower over past week after BOJ left policy unchanged, against market speculation of a near-term rate hike. Strength has been more pronounced in corporate bonds with investment-grade returning almost 11% since beginning of November according to Bloomberg's index, highest on record. Junk bonds also seeing a strong run higher with iShares ETF (HYG) up 8% in past two to months to its highest since Aug-2022.

    • Foreign investors flee China's stock market amid concern about economy:

      • FT's calculations based on Stock Connect data showed net foreign investment in China-listed shares has dropped 87% from its peak at CNY235B ($33B) in August to only CNY30.7B. 2023 also on track to record smallest annual foreign inflow since 2015, first full year of Stock Connect program. International investors have been persistent net sellers of Chinese equities since August, when Country Garden missing bond payments exacerbated concerns about severity of liquidity crisis in China's property sector. Lack of confidence spills over to broader economy and business environment. Chinese equity benchmarks also underperforming global peers with CSI 300 set to close 2023 down more than 15% in dollar terms versus nearly 25% gain in S&P 500. Global long-only investors remained wary of Chinese stocks since surge in buying Chinese equities a year ago on zero-Covid exit did not go well. Added last Friday's surprise announcement of draft regulations on online games hurt the nascent recovery in market sentiment.

    • Sell-side firms expect China's housing woes to continue:

      • Bloomberg discussed consensus view from ten investment banks and securities brokerages that slump in China's housing construction will continue into 2024 amid falling sales and excess supply, dragging down economic growth. Noted China's real estate investment fell 8% y/y in Jan-Nov, after an annual drop of 8.4% in 2022. Sell-side firms' grim outlook indicates property woes are far from over despite raft of measures from authorities mostly targeted at reviving demand. Property's role as driver of demand for goods and services has been shrinking, estimated at 20% of GDP now, down from 24% in 2018, while Goldman expected further "double-digit" contraction in real estate fixed-asset investment next year. Situation made worse by decline in real estate sales, leaving developers less willing to start construction. Some economists believe Beijing will roll out further stimulus to stabilize market, including further use of central bank or fiscal funds to directly buy-up excess housing.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +9.8% 493.HK (GOME Retail Holdings): partially settles $100M bonds through equity transfer and conversion

      • +6.7% 4631.JP (DIC): activist investor Oasis Management discloses 6.90% stake

      • +5.1% 1258.HK (China Nonferrous Mining): appoints Yang Dayong as president, effective today

      • +4.2% 5809.JP (Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable Co.): ENEOS subsidiary JX Nippon Mining & Metals expects tender offer for Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable to commence in January at the earliest

      • +3.0% 012330.KS (Hyundai Mobis): co-CEO Bae Hyung-keun to step down due to the expiration of term of office; effective immediately

      • +2.5% 1801.HK (Innovent Biologics): enters into agreement with Xuanzhu to investigate combination therapy of Sintilimab injection with KM-501 for advanced solid tumors in China

      • +1.9% 003490.KS (KOREAN AIR LINES Co.): further extends transaction closing for Asiana Airlines merger deal to 31-Mar-24 from 31-Dec-23

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -3.7% 009410.KS (TAEYOUNG Engineering & Construction Co Ltd): reportedly applies for debt restructuring program amid liquidity issues

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan November

        • Retail sales +1.0% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and (1.6%) in prior month

          • Retail sales +5.3% y/y vs consensus +5.0% and revised +4.1% in prior month

        • Industrial production (0.9%) m/m vs consensus (1.7%) and revised +1.3% in prior month

          • METI survey projections +6.0% in December, (7.2%) in January

      • South Korea November

        • Industrial production +0.5% m/m vs FactSet consensus +1.0% and revised (1.6%) in prior month

          • Industrial production +2.5% y/y vs FactSet consensus +3.0% and revised +1.0% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (141.62) or (0.42%) to 33539.62

      • Hang Seng: 418.69 or +2.52% to 17043.53

      • Shanghai Composite: 40.09 or +1.38% to 2954.70

      • Shenzhen Composite: 40.87 or +2.30% to 1817.38

      • ASX200: 53.10 or +0.70% to 7614.30

      • KOSPI: 41.78 or +1.60% to 2655.28

      • SENSEX: 301.25 or +0.42% to 72339.68

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (1.04) or (0.74%) to 140.7950

      • $-KRW: (17.66) or (1.35%) to 1286.1300

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.03% to 0.6849

      • $-INR: (0.12) or (0.14%) to 83.2024

      • $-CNY: (0.06) or (0.77%) to 7.0862

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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