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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.14% to 7733.24, DAX +0.28% to 16748.70, CAC40 +0.33% to 7560.09, STOXX 600 +0.27% to 479.39

Dec 29 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices have ended in positive territory. Very quiet year-end trade with nothing new from a narrative perspective. Central bank rate cut expectations, soft landing momentum and easing financial conditions continues to underpin markets. A FT survey of economists predicts the ECB will begin cutting rates in the second quarter of 2024. Only two of the 48 economists polled thought the ECB could cut sooner, despite markets pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a move in March. There are some thoughts markets may be overestimating the likelihood of an early cut, as ECB officials have been keen to pushback against expectations. Austrian central bank chief Holzmann said Thursday it was too early to start discussing the possibility now (Reuters). However, once the ECB does start the rate cutting cycle, further easing could come rapidly. Almost 42% of economists said they thought the ECB had overtightened and may have overestimated the strength of the euro area economy. Headline inflation has slowed to 2.4% in November and tipped to remain close to 2% for most of the year, though the ECB will be guided by underlying inflation. Looking ahead, economists on average expect the ECB to keep lowering rates until its deposit rate is close to 2.25%. The Welt cited German Banking Association Chief Sewing, who said the economy is likely to stagnate in 2024. Does not expect a rapid and strong economic recovery, but private consumption and investment could pick up again if "the economic and geopolitical risks gradually ease in the coming year and inflation continues to fall.

    • On the macro calendar, flash CPI reading from Spain came in softer than expected. Barclaycard data showed UK spending rose by 4.1% in 2023 due to trips abroad as interest rate rises made households better off. However, KPMG survey suggests UK consumers will cut back in 2024. Nationwide house price index flat in December.

    • In terms corporate developments. Grifols (GRF.SM) entered into a strategic alliance with Haier Group through the sale of a 20% stake in Shanghai RAAS (SRAAS) for CNY12.5B (~$1.8B). London Times wrote that hedge funds holding large short positions in UK retail sector, which are among the top ten most shorted companies. In a Bloomberg interview, Man Group (EMG.LN) executive said that the company will make acquisitions to expand private credit offering, whilst Pendragon (PDG.LN) provided an update on disposal, subscription by Lithia, strategic partnership, and proposed board changes

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Oil & Gas +0.49%, Media +0.45%, Insurance +0.43%, Banks +0.37%, Construct & Mtls +0.35%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.34%, Autos & Parts +0.32%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.32%, Chemicals +0.32%, Food & Beverage +0.29%

      • Underperformers: Real Estate(0.51%), Basic Resources (0.20%), Retail +0.04%, Telecom +0.05%, Technology +0.12%, Travel & Leisure +0.18%, Utilities +0.22%, Health Care +0.24%, Financial Svcs +0.27%

    • Macro:

      • Rate rises hand European banks a €100bn windfall (FT)

      • Make-or-break national election looms over Belgian EU presidency (Politico)

      • UK house prices fall in 2023, to stay subdued next year, says Nationwide (Reuters)

      • Putin Forced to Relocate Ships in Crimea After Ukraine Strikes (BBG)

      • Having children should be women's main mission, Italy's ruling party senator says (Reuters)

      • EU competition chief defends Artificial Intelligence Act after Macron's attack (FT)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Spain Dec Preliminary CPI y/y +3.1% vs consensus +3.3% and prior +3.2%

      • Switzerland Dec KOF Leading Indicator 97.8 vs consensus 97.0 and prior revised to 97.2 from 96.7

      • UK Dec Nationwide House Price Index y/y (1.8%) vs consensus (1.4%) and prior (2%)

      • Netherlands Nov Retail Sales +3.2% y/y vs consensus +4.0% and prior +4.7%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Feb 24): +$0.35 or +0.49% to $72.12

      • €-$ (0.0005) or (0.05%) to 1.1059

      • £-$ (0.0011) or (0.09%) to 1.2722

      • €-£ +0.0003 to 0.8692

      • S&P 500 +0.00%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +3.78%

        • DAX: +20.29%

        • CAC: +16.78%

        • MIB: +28.43%

        • Stoxx 600: +12.83%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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