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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.28%) to 7711.79, DAX +0.09% to 16766.12, CAC40 (0.26%) to 7523.68, STOXX 600 (0.16%) to 478.23

Jan 02 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended mixed to lower following a positive open. No change in broader market narrative, as New Year trade begins with focus on start of central bank easing cycles. Futures pricing in 85% chance of Fed rate cut in March. ECB tipped to begin easing policy from Q2 and cut by up to 150 bps. At least 125 bps worth of easing seen by BoE, though Times survey of economists suggests markets may be overestimating. Two or three rate cuts seen by majority

    • In geopolitics, Red Sea tensions ratcheted higher after US Navy sunk three Houthi boats, prompting Maersk (MAERSK.B.DC) +6.4% to halt Red Sea shipping until further notice after the attack

    • On the macro-front, final manufacturing PMIs and Eurozone M3 money were released today. Regarding the latter, Eurozone M3 money supply growth came (0.9%) y/y in November versus consensus for 1.0% fall and prior 1.0% drop. Narrower M1 growth, which includes overnight deposits, down 9.5% y/y versus prior 10.0% fall. Breakdown showed ongoing weakness in credit dynamics. Annual growth rate of total credit to euro area residents down 0.6% in November 2023, compared with 0.5% fall in prior month. Adjusted loans to private sector stood at 0.4%, unchanged from October. Also, surveys of economists published in the FT and London Times showed the UK economy will only experience very sluggish growth in the coming year, but the BoE will not rush into cutting rates. The UK economy is at risk of a technical recession and the majority anticipate growth between 0% and 1%. While the BoE is set to cut rates this year, economists predict less easing than the market is pricing in. Out of 41 economists surveyed by the Times, 45% predicted rates would be cut three times or more, while two was the most common forecast. Markets price in at least 125 bps worth of easing. With a general election anticipated at some point in the year ahead, most economists see little to change the long-term prospects for growth until after a new government is elected. As a result of uncertainty, business investment tipped to remain low. Support may come from household consumption from pre-election giveaways and increase in real disposable incomes as inflation eases.

    • In corporate news, during the evening of the 29th of December Nokia (NOKIA.FH) announced it will not meet 2023 financial outlook for sales, comparable OM and FCF whilst - in the same evening - Valneva (VLA.FP) also updated its 2023 financial guidance. Elsewhere, ASML (ASML.NA) confirmed that the Dutch government partially revoked its export license for some lithography systems Eurostar (GET.FP ) services are reportedly back on track after tunnel flooding; still in France, Bouygues' Equans (EN.FP) finalised the sale of its UK district heating and cooling networks to Swiss Life Asset Managers and Schroders Greencoat LLP. In the UK, Diversified Energy Co. (DEC.LN) closed a value enhancing asset sale generating proceeds of ~$200M whilst in the Nordics - Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden(SBB.B.SS) postponed the interest payments on its hybrid bonds and Outokumpu (OUT1V.FH) will temporarily restrict its ferrochrome production due to weak ferrochrome market conditions

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Telecom +1.21%, Banks +0.78%, Autos & Parts +0.72%, Oil & Gas +0.64%, Health Care +0.49%, Insurance +0.31%, Construct & Mtls (0.04%), Basic Resources (0.14%)

      • Underperformers: Technology (1.81%), Retail (1.17%), Real Estate(1.08%), Media (0.98%), Financial Svcs (0.85%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.65%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.57%), Chemicals (0.52%), Travel & Leisure (0.52%), Utilities (0.43%), Food & Beverage (0.38%)

    • Macro:

      • Macron says 2024 to be 'a year of determination' for France in New Year's Eve address (F24)

      • Is Germany's far-right AfD a threat to democracy? (dw)

      • Israel-Hamas war poses long-term security threat, Belgian minister warns (Politico)

      • UK economy will enter 'grey gloom' until polling day, economists say (FT)

      • Italian outcry as MP Pozzolo's gun wounds man at New Year's Eve party (BBC)

      • Russia pounds Ukraine with missiles and drones, five dead (Reuters)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +13.4% SAR.LN (Sareum Holdings £0.68, +0.08) -- co-development partner signs licence agreement for SRA737 with private US biopharma firm

        • +11.3% HEALTH.FH (Nightingale Health €1.24, +0.13) -- Terveystalo begins using Nightingale Health's blood analysis technology in regular health checks in occupational health

        • +9.5% SANION.SS (Saniona SEK4.39, +0.38) -- lead compound SAN2465 selected as a clinical candidate for major depressive disorder

        • +8.4% HVO.LN (hVIVO plc £0.26, +0.02) -- signs £6.3M HRV contract with biotechnology client

        • +7.4% AIFORIA.FH (Aiforia Technologies €3.75, +0.26) -- licensing agreement with Mayo Clinic

        • +6.4% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK12,915.00, +775.00) -- halts Red Sea shipping until further notice after Houthi militant attack -- CNBC

        • +6.0% DEC.LN (Diversified Energy Co. £11.82, +0.66) -- closes value enhancing asset sale; generates proceeds of ~$200M

        • +3.7% GOGL.NO (Golden Ocean Group NOK102.10, +3.68) -- new CEO of Golden Ocean Management AS

        • +3.0% NOKIA.FH (Nokia €3.14, +0.09) -- guides it will not meet its 2023 financial outlook for sales, comparable OM, FCF

        • +2.1% AGL.LN (ANGLE £0.12, -0.00) -- contract with Eisai for pilot study

        • +2.1% SBO.NO (Selvaag Bolig NOK33.80, +0.70) -- Q4 sales

        • +1.9% GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS €13.60, +0.26) -- issues Namibia PEL 83 information update

        • +1.5% GLPG.NA (Galapagos €37.53, +0.54) -- signs agreement to transfer Jyseleca business to Alfasigma for €50M upfront payment and potential sales-based milestone payments totaling €120M

        • +1.0% VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car SEK32.88, +0.32) -- France Dec new passenger car registration

        • +0.7% RNO.FP (Renault €37.18, +0.27) -- France Dec new passenger car registration

        • +0.6% OTOVO.NO (Otovo ASA NOK3.40, +0.02) -- launches subsequent offering of 17.4M new shares at NOK 3.45/each

        • +0.1% SBB.B.SS (SBB SEK5.07, -0.00) -- postpones interest payments on hybrid bonds

      • Notable Decliners

        • -4.2% OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu €4.30, -0.19) -- to temporarily restrict its ferrochrome production due to weak ferrochrome market conditions

        • -3.0% WALL.B.SS (Wallenstam SEK53.05, -1.65) -- updates on Q4 commercial premises

        • -2.6% ASML.NA (ASML Holding €664.00, -17.60) -- confirms Dutch government partially revoked its export license for some lithography systems

        • -1.0% COFB.BB (Cofinimmo €70.70, -0.70) -- completes several divestments and meets its 2023 target

        • -0.8% VLA.FP (Valneva €4.68, -0.04) -- updates 2023 financial guidance

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • none

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Dec Manufacturing PMI

        • Sweden 48.8 vs consensus 50.4 and prior 49.0

        • Spain 46.2 vs consensus 47.0 and prior 46.3

        • Eurozone 44.4 vs preliminary 44.2

        • Germany 43.3 vs consensus 43.1 and prior 42.6

        • France 42.1 vs consensus 42.0 and prior 42.9

        • Italy 45.3 vs consensus 44.4 and prior 44.4

        • Norway 51.7 vs consensus 50.7 and prior revised 50.1 from 49.9

      • Eurozone Nov M3 Money Supply (0.9%) vs consensus (1.0%) and prior (1.0%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Feb 24): ($0.81) or (1.13%) to $70.84

      • €-$ (0.0093) or (0.84%) to 1.0954

      • £-$ (0.0104) or (0.82%) to 1.2623

      • €-£ (0.0001) to 0.8680

      • S&P 500 (0.57%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: (0.28%)

        • DAX: +0.09%

        • CAC: (0.26%)

        • MIB: +0.59%

        • Stoxx 600: (0.16%)

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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