Jan 02 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open flat to higher as the new year of trading gets underway. STOXX 600 ended the fourth quarter with gains of 6.4%, leaving gains of 12.7% on the year, which is the best performance since 2021. FTSE 100 lagged with 1.7% increase on the quarter and 3.8% on the year as sterling rose ~6% against the dollar in 2023 (best performance since 2017)
Central bank rate cut expectations, soft landing momentum and easing financial conditions continue to underpin markets. Reuters notes futures pricing continues to point to a roughly 85% chance the Fed will start to ease rates in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool, while more than 150 basis points of rate cuts from the European Central Bank have similarly been priced in for all of 2024, and roughly 140 bps from the Bank of England. A FT survey of economists predicts the ECB will begin cutting rates in the second quarter of 2024.
Asian equities trading mixed Tuesday. Mixed reads on China manufacturing sector with official PMIs showing activity shrunk at fastest pace in six months as new order and new export declines deepened. Non-manufacturing activity firmed, as stronger construction activity offset services sector weakness. Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly firmed amid stronger increases in output and new orders and reports of firmer demand. Magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck Sea of Japan, triggering tsunami warning leading to spike in spot power prices.
Macro data releases in Europe include Italy/Norway/Spain/Sweden manufacturing PMIs with final reads for Eurozone/France/Germany/UK, Eurozone Nov M3 money supply, UK Dec house price index - Nationwide
Oil prices moving higher. Focus on news Iran has sent a warship to the Red Sea in response to the US Navy's sinking of three Houthi boats over the weekend. (Bloomberg, CNBC)
In corporate news highlights, Nokia (NOKIA.FH) has guided it will not meet its 2023 financial outlook for sales, comparable OM, FCF. Danone (BN.FP) to sell majority of Horizon Organic, Wallaby to Platinum Equity; terms undisclosed. ASML (ASML.NA) confirms Dutch government partially revoked its export license for some lithography systems
Macro/politics
Top company news
Earnings/updates
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- guides it will not meet its 2023 financial outlook for sales, comparable OM, FCF
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- updates 2023 financial guidance
SBO.NO (Selvaag Bolig) -- sold 435 homes with a total value of NOK 2.58B in 2023 vs year-ago 561 homes gross worth NOK 2.96B
M&A
BN.FP (Danone) -- to sell majority of Horizon Organic, Wallaby to Platinum Equity; terms undisclosed
GLPG.NA (Galapagos) -- signs agreement to transfer Jyseleca business to Alfasigma for €50M upfront payment and potential sales-based milestone payments totaling €120M
LMDX (LumiraDX) -- announces agreement to sell its point of CARE technology platform to Roche
XLS.SW (Xlife Sciences) -- portfolio company VERAXA Biotech AG acquires Synimmune GmbH to expand cancer pipeline
OHB.GR (OHB SE) -- KKR discloses 9.94% holding in OHB SE as of 22-Dec
Other
ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- ASML confirms Dutch government partially revoked its export license for some lithography systems
MKS.LN (Marks & Spencer Group) -- Chairman: Marks & Spencer needs to become global brand at some point - Sunday Times
WPP.LN (WPP Group) -- WPP likely to choose outsider as new chairman - Sky News
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- to pay CLCV €400-600M compensation for misleading mortgage practices - Le Parisien, seemingly citing sources
HL.LN (Hargreaves Lansdown) -- Point72 latest fund to bet against Hargreaves Lansdown - London Times
Estimated (four-day) weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $143.3M, +5.4% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
MKS.LN (Marks & Spencer) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
EZJ.LN (easyJet) -- to neutral from sell at Citi
Downgrades
BOO.LN (Boohoo) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
REP.SM Repsol downgraded to market perform from outperform at Bernstein
SINCH.SS (Sinch) -- to Underperform from Neutral at Nextgen Research LTD
LHA.GR (Lufthansa) -- to sell from neutral at Citi
Data
Nikkei +0.00% to 33464.17
Hang Seng (1.78%) to 16743.78
Shanghai Composite (0.33%) to 2965.14
S&P futures +1.3 vs prior close of 4820.0
€-$ (0.0017) or (0.15%) to 1.1030
$-¥ +0.65 or +0.46% to 141.53
€-¥ +0.43 or +0.28% to 156.10
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