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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.53%), Hang Seng (0.00%), Shanghai Composite (0.43%) as of 03:10 ET

Jan 04 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mostly lower Thursday but many were off their lows by the close. More declines for mainland China but an afternoon rally sent the Hang Seng back to the flatline. Australia, South Korea and Singapore all fell, strong gains in India as real estate stocks surged; Japan ended mixed with Nikkei lower, Topix higher. US futures higher, Europe higher in early trades. US dollar lower, Asia forex mixed. Treasury yields higher. Crude higher, precious metals flat, industrial metals mixed.

    • Asia markets responded to a second consecutive down day on Wall Street with some steep losses first thing but a tick higher in US futures and an afternoon rally in Hong Kong provided some support. Bears led by growing skepticism the Fed will deliver a rate cut in Q1, weak economic data out of the US, as well as escalating geopolitical worries; bulls maintain this is merely a healthy market correction and nothing has substantially changed since December when equity markets surged.

    • China equities seeing a volatile day with more pressure on real estate developers. Reuters reported late Wednesday state-owned banks were paring exposure to smaller lenders amid apprehension over asset quality. Adds to concerns about fallout from property market slump, reinforced by weekend data that showed a deep decline in monthly home sales. China 10Y yield at Apr-2020 lows as traders price in additional RRR cuts; the yuan is also weaker this week.

    • Japan final PMIs confirmed manufacturing contracted at its fastest pace in 10 months in December. China Service PMIs grew to five-month high in December to send the composite index to a seven-month high. South Korea's government trimmed its FY GDP forecast and raised inflation expectations amid a flurry of initiatives aimed at curbing inflation and boosting consumption.

    • Japan Airlines (9201.JP) said it would record an operating loss of ¥15B on the loss of the A350 aircraft earlier this week. Tencent (700.HK) bought back record HK$10B ($1.3B) of shares in December. Kolon Industries (120110.KS) is said to be in discussions to sell its film division to private equity group Hahn. Taeyoung Engineering & Construction (009410.KS) largest creditor has urged it to come up with a plan to tackle its debts, suggesting it is unhappy with firm's request to reschedule its repayment plan.

  • Digest:

    • China Caixin Services PMI expands to five-month high in December:

      • Caixin services PMI was 52.9 in December to highest since July, versus consensus 51.6 and 51.5 in prior month. Data in expansion for every month in 2023. Companies signaled strong increases in activity and new business, with the latter expanding at quickest pace since May. Foreign demand for Chinese services increased in year-end with rate of new export order growth at highest level since June. Firms increased staffing levels, marking first upturn in service sector employment in three months, though only at marginal rate. Average input costs increased at faster pace, while selling prices rose at softer and marginal rate amid competition. Business optimism rose to three-month high, though still below historical average, with many see stronger economic conditions with corresponding increase in client spending. Caixin Composite PMI rose to 52.6 from 51.6 in November, highest since June, as both manufacturing and services sectors' supply and demand expanded. Economists noted efforts to increase employment should be strengthened as drop in manufacturing employment dampened overall job market.

    • China 10Y yield drops to lowest since 2020 on PBOC monetary easing bets:

      • China 10Y government bond yield dropped to 2.54% on Thursday morning, lowest since Apr-20, amid growing bets on further PBOC monetary easing in sight following mixed economic data (Bloomberg). Noted bond rally started in Q4 amid PBOC's liquidity support and major banks cutting deposit rates for the third time in 2023, fueling expectations that monetary policy will remain loose to support economic growth. DBS economist added yuan's recent stabilization and low inflation also aid central bank's easing. Analysts said outlook for China government bonds will depend on how aggressively central bank may loosen policy to support still fragile economy. Yicai reported CITIC Securities pointed to period around Lunar New Year (10-Feb) is an important window for PBOC to make a move based on records from past five years. Noted a higher probability for interest rate cuts than RRR cut in Q1. Bond rally expected to continue before actual rate cut.

    • South Korea government trims growth forecast, raises inflation expectations:

      • South Korea's government cut its FY 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.4%, raised its FY inflation forecast to 2.6% from previous 2.3%, with country struggling to boost consumption amid narrow export expansion. Finance Ministry's biannual economic policy plan said government to focus on managing risk factors, supporting livelihoods in 2024; will push for greater tax incentives for corporate investment into R&D, increase financing for exporters to KRW355T ($271.26B). Will introduce trade settlement mechanism using won over US dollars for first time. To stimulate consumption, government to freeze electricity, other utility prices; set aside KRW10.8T to counter higher prices including cutting tax on food items. Set goal of 20M overseas visitors with visa fees from several Asia countries eliminated. Liquidity issues at real estate projects to be countered by state run Land & Housing Corp taking over failing construction projects. Debt-to-GDP target reduced in effort to counteract household debt (Yonhap).

    • Index inclusion, RBI pivot and supply restraint seen underpinning Indian bonds in 2024:

      • Indian bonds capped off 2023 with best annual performance since 2020 and are expected to maintain that momentum in 2024 (Bloomberg). Bullish outlook underpinned by Indian bonds' looming inclusion in JP Morgan's Emerging Markets index from 28-Jun with maximum weight of 10% (Bloomberg). Indian bonds saw foreign inflows of $8.4B last year, most since 2017 but inclusion in JP Morgan's index may see inflows swell beyond $20B according to economist estimates (Bloomberg). Support also coming from an expected RBI pivot as economists eye multiple rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, Indian federal budget that will be handed down on 1-Feb is expected to forego major fiscal policy announcements, tempering notion of extra spending ahead of national election. Net government bond supply seen declining by around INR1.6T over next two years, coinciding with stronger demand from insurers and pension funds.

    • China's biggest banks tighten exposure to smaller lenders to rein in credit risk:

      • Reuters citing people with direct knowledge reported two of China's biggest state-owned banks and a leading joint-stock bank have stepped up scrutiny of smaller peers' asset quality over past few months and tightened standards for interbank lending. Article did not disclose names of the banks. Noted the two state-owned banks have decided to reduce interbank limits, set shorter maturity for smaller lenders deemed high risk, while the joint-stock bank also tightened its lending criteria. Move comes amid growing concerns over asset quality in China's smaller banks, dragged by property sector crisis and large local government debt. Also might exacerbate capital woes for these banks which could force Beijing to intervene with more supportive measures. Added some of the small banks deemed risky were in highly indebted regions including three provinces in the northeast, Inner Mongolia and Henan. Rates for negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) have risen steadily since August to highest in December, partly due to liquidity gap. Ten smaller and medium-sized rural commercial banks have also defaulted on commercial papers at least three times over six months in 2023.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +3.7% 500034.IN (Bajaj Finance): reports Q3 provisional new loans 9.9M vs year-ago 7.8M

      • +3.2% 120110.KS (Kolon Industries): reportedly in discussions to sell film division to PE firm Hahn & Company

      • +1.8% 688111.CH (Beijing Kingsoft Office Software): guides FY net income attributable CNY1.24-1.37B vs FactSet CNY1.32B

      • +0.8% 9201.JP (Japan Airlines Co.): expects to record operating loss of (¥15B) due to entire loss of aircraft on 2-Jan

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -2.0% 005380.KS (Hyundai Motor): reports December global sales 342,919 units vs year-ago 345,681 units; guides FY24 sales 4.2M units

      • -1.0% 000270.KS (Kia): reports December global sales 213,543 units vs year-ago 235,052 units

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China December

        • Caixin Services PMI 52.9 vs consensus 51.6 and 51.5 in prior month

          • Caixin Composite PMI 52.6 vs 51.6 in prior month

      • Japan December

        • Final manufacturing PMI 47.9 vs preliminary 47.7 and 48.3 in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (175.88) or (0.53%) to 33288.29

      • Hang Seng: (0.43) or (0.00%) to 16645.98

      • Shanghai Composite: (12.90) or (0.43%) to 2954.35

      • Shenzhen Composite: (15.21) or (0.84%) to 1797.50

      • ASX200: (29.10) or (0.39%) to 7494.10

      • KOSPI: (20.29) or (0.78%) to 2587.02

      • SENSEX: 484.50 or +0.68% to 71841.10

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.10 or +0.07% to 143.3870

      • $-KRW: (3.29) or (0.25%) to 1307.0500

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.30% to 0.6750

      • $-INR: (0.07) or (0.09%) to 83.2209

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1529

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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