Jan 05 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed to lower. Pan-European indices reversed earlier declines, ending around session highest levels. Portugal +0.7%, Finland +0.5%, Austria +0.4% led the outperformers. Sweden (1.1%), Italy (0.6%), FTSE100 and France both down ~ (0.4%) led the underperformers.
Focus on paring back in central bank rate hike expectations. Has been a contributory factor in notable backup in bond yields this week. Markets still pricing in 5-6 Fed rate cuts this year like ECB rate cut pricing but moderated versus levels late last year.
In geopolitical developments, tensions in the Middle East continue. Maersk announced it will extend its diversion of vessels from the Red Sea for the "foreseeable future" due to a surge in Houthi attacks.
From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, German retail sales fell sharply in November by 2.5% m/m vs consensus for 0.1% fall and prior 1.1% increase, with y/y sales down 2.4% vs forecast for 0.5% drop and prior 0.1% fall. Meanwhile, data from the UK's biggest mortgage lender, Halifax, reinforcing the more upbeat tone for the UK's housing market. Still in the UK, SMMT released Dec new car registrations +9.8% to 141,092 units. In the meantime, Eurozone inflation accelerated in December for the first time in six months with headline CPI at 2.9% vs Street forecast of 2.9% and prior 2.4% reading, while core eased to 3.4% vs prior 3.6%, as expected.
In corporate news, Sodexo (SW.FP) reported Q1 revenue €6.29B vs consensus €6.28B and maintained its FY24 and FY25 guidance. In the UK, Clarkson (CKN.LN) released a FY trading update. Management now expects FY underlying PBT to be not less than £108M vs FS £99.4M. Out of the Nordics, Qt Group (QTCOM.FH) reported prelim FY revenue €180M-181M vs FactSet €183.6M and sees FY EBITA margin at guidance high end or slightly above.
In other corporate developments, Endeavour Mining (EDV.LN) announced termination of President and CEO Sébastien de Montessus for serious misconduct with immediate effect. Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (SOBI.SS) Chairman Bo Jesper Hansen resigned at his own request. Elsewhere, Remy Cointreau (CO.FP) and Pernod Ricard (RI.FP) under pressure on news China has begun an anti-dumping investigation on brandy imported from the European Union.
On M&A front, Byggfakta Group (BFG.SS) shares are soaring as company received SEK46/share offer from consortium comprising Macquarie European Investment Holdings in deal worth SEK3.2B
The week ahead sees ECB publish its latest Economic Bulletin, quarterly bank lending surveys in Denmark and Norway, SNB preliminary annual figures, Eurozone Dec economic sentiment, UK Nov industrial/manufacturing production as well as earnings/updates from Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PL), J Sainsbury (SBRY.LN), OMV (OMV.AV), Sika (SIKA.SW) and Tesco (TSCO.LN).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Banks +0.40%, Media +0.32%, Utilities +0.19%, Basic Resources +0.13%, Autos & Parts +0.04%, Telecom (0.03%), Oil & Gas (0.08%), Health Care (0.17%)
Underperformers
Retail (1.10%), Chemicals (0.94%), Real Estate(0.73%), Food & Beverage (0.70%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.67%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.62%), Construct & Mtls (0.55%), Financial Svcs (0.51%), Travel & Leisure (0.41%), Insurance (0.30%), Technology (0.29%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
UK
Germany
Big drop in German retail sales - Destatis
Warning of up to 30% more bankruptcies in 2024 - Handelsblatt
Germany changes budget deal after farmers' protests, cuts marine fund - euractiv
Finland
Finland says power supply stable amid cold weather, record price - Reuters
Norway
Norway's weak krone fuels record year for seafood exports - Bloomberg
Greece
The Suez Canal crisis also affects the port of Piraeus - ekathimerini
Portugal
Portugal's main opposition seals pre-electoral alliance with right-wing party CDS-PP - Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+13.2% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF79.55, +9.25) -- Berenberg upgrade
+7.6% ALCJ.FP (Crossject €5.30, +0.38) -- partners with Syneos for commercial launch of Crossject's ZEPIZURE in US
+6.9% QTCOM.FH (Qt Group €68.04, +4.38) -- prelim FY earnings
+6.6% CKN.LN (Clarkson £34.80, +2.15) -- Q4 trading update
+6.2% BSLN.SW (Basilea Pharmaceutica CHF36.65, +2.15) -- portfolio status update
+6.2% RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €136.05, +8.00) -- Berenberg upgrade
+4.1% DUE.GR (Duerr €21.06, +0.82) -- BofA upgrade
+2.1% TIGO.SS (Millicom International Cellular SEK190.05, +3.85) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
Notable Decliners
-18.3% RBG.LN (Revolution Bars Group £0.04, -0.01) -- H1 trading update
-11.5% RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau €96.42, -12.53) -- China's Ministry of Commerce initiates anti-dumping investigation into brandy from EU
-6.3% CBRAIN.DC (cBrain DKK214.50, -14.50) -- Carnegie Securities downgrade
-3.9% AALB.NA (Aalberts €36.58, -1.47) -- BofA downgrade
-3.6% BARN.SW (Barry Callebaut CHF1,356.00, -50.00) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-3.5% RXL.FP (Rexel €24.24, -0.88) -- BofA downgrade
-3.5% RI.FP (Pernod Ricard €147.05, -5.40) -- China's Ministry of Commerce initiates anti-dumping investigation into brandy from EU
-3.4% RS1.LN (RS Group plc £7.95, -0.28) -- initiated underperform at BofA
-3.3% SXS.LN (Spectris £35.56, -1.21) -- BofA downgrade
-3.2% IMI.LN (IMI £15.61, -0.51) -- BofA downgrade
-2.9% AMBU.B.DC (Ambu DKK99.32, -2.93) -- appoints Rummana Hasan as new Chief Marketing Officer
-2.7% TUI1.GR (TUI Group €6.81, -0.19) -- AGM to vote on LSE delisting
-2.3% MNDI.LN (Mondi £15.03, -0.35) -- Jefferies downgrade
-1.4% SLR.SM (Solaria Energia €16.83, -0.24) -- JB Capital Markets downgrade
EU companies reporting on Monday:
Trading Update: Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Denmark Nov Unemployment Rate 2.5% vs consensus 2.5% and prior 2.5%
UK Dec Halifax House Prices +1.7% y/y vs consensus (0.4%) and prior (1.0%)
Germany Nov Retail Sales (2.4%) y/y vs consensus (0.5%) and prior (0.1%); (2.5%) m/m vs consensus (0.1%) and prior +1.1%
Eurozone
Nov PPI (8.8%) y/y vs consensus (8.7%) and prior (9.4%); (0.3%) m/m vs consensus (0.1%) and prior revised +0.3% from +0.2%
Dec Preliminary CPI +2.9% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and prior +2.4%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.1% and prior (0.6%)
Italy Dec Preliminary CPI +0.6% y/y vs consensus +0.7% and prior +0.7%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior (0.5%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Feb 24): +$1.76 or +2.44% to $73.95
€-$ +0.0018 or +0.16% to 1.0965
£-$ +0.0059 or +0.47% to 1.2742
€-£ (0.0027) to 0.8605
S&P 500 +0.45%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (0.58%)
DAX: (0.96%)
CAC: (1.60%)
MIB: +0.27%
Stoxx 600: (0.55%)
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