Jan 08 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly lower, extending last week's losses. Risk-off start to 2024 with the Stoxx Europe 600 index closing ~0.6% lower after eight consecutive weekly gains on ramped-up bets of easing monetary policy. In the week ahead, US CPI Thursday set to be the main global focus. Major US bank earnings commence this Friday with BAC, C, JPM, and WFC all releasing results that day. In Europe, this week sees earnings/updates from a number of UK retailers (SBRY.LN, TSCO.LN, MKS.LN, etc) as well as UK homebuilders (TW.LN, PSN.LN, VTY.LN).
Asia equities lower almost everywhere Monday. Losses currently greatest in Hong Kong with another 2%-plus move lower led by internet & IT stocks, mainland markets also down sharply. Seoul lower, Taipei higher as election day approaches. Latest regional news saw China announcing new sanctions of five US defense companies in response to recent arms deals to Taiwan but impacts unclear. India revised up FY23/24 GDP growth to 7.3%, extending run of upgrades and set to top 7% for the third straight year.
European Macro data releases out today include Germany Nov trade balance, factory orders, Switzerland Dec CPI, Nov retail sales, Eurozone Jan Sentix investor confidence, Dec final consumer confidence, economic sentiment, Nov retail sales, Norway Nov manufacturing production
Also on today's agenda: first of the ECB's Economic Bulletin pre-releases at 11:30CET. Germany's Minister for Economy and Climate of Germany, Habeck, in Brussels, meets with EU's von der Leyen and several EU Commissioners. In the UK, parliament resumes with MPs questions on defence, with the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill continuing its progress.
Relatively quiet on the corporate front. Pandora (PNDORA.DC) reports Q4 LFL growth of +9%, and prelim Q4 EBIT DKK3.7B vs FactSet DKK3.54B. SoftwareONE (SWON.SW) says it continues to be in discussions with Bain Capital which may or may not lead to an offer; follows earlier BBG report saying talks between Bain and SoftwareONE Holding have paused over price/valuation after new $3.5B offer.
Macro/politics
UK's jobs market saw overall vacancies fall slightly for the third time in the past four months - REC/KPMG monthly jobs report
Sunak pins hopes of revival in Tory fortunes on UK tax cuts - FT
UK manufacturers look to era of growth - London Times, citing Make UK
Michel Gives Europe an Early Plot Twist by Standing in Elections - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
PNDORA.DC (Pandora) --
reports preliminary Q4 revenue DKK10.8B vs FactSet DKK10.37B [9 est, DKK9.61-10.64B]; EBIT DKK3.7B vs FactSet DKK3.54B [7 est, DKK3.21-3.67B]
Q4 2023 organic growth accelerates to +12% boosted by LFL (Like-for-Like) growth of +9%.
DTG.GR (Daimler Truck Holding) -- Daimler Truck unlikely to achieve 2025 target of 15% reduction in operating costs, investment and R&D expenditures - Bloomberg
CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson) -- reports Dec sales (ex acquired Spares Group) +11% to SEK1.37B; organic sales +14% y/y
HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma) -- reports Q4 preliminary revenue SEK50M vs FactSet SEK39.6M
BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- reports Q4 harvest volume 17.1Kt
M&A
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) --
continues to be in discussions with Bain Capital which may or may not lead to an offer; Board expects to conclude discussions and provide an update on the outcome of the strategic review to shareholders by the end of the month
Talks between Bain Capital and SoftwareONE Holding reportedly have paused over price/valuation after new $3.5B offer- Bloomberg
DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich) -- to acquire remaining ordinary shares (~3.9%) in DSM
Owners Raine Group, Temasek to sell SoundCloud - Sky News
Healthcare
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- announces Phase III trial met both primary endpoints of major molecular response (MMR) rate for Scemblix compared to investigator-selected TKIs
EVT.GR (Evotec) -- receives a $25M payment to progress further research in strategic neuroscience with Bristol Myers Squibb
CALTX.SS (Calliditas Therapeutics) -- appoints Maria Törnsén as President North America
MOLN.SW (Molecular Partners) -- to present updates and 2024 outlook at 42nd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
MOLN.SW (Molecular Partners) -- and Orano Med announce co-development agreement for Radio-DARPin therapies
ORY.SM (Oryzon Genomics) -- announces topline results from Phase IIb PORTICO study of Vafidemstat in borderline personality disorder
Other
BP.LN (BP) -- Large holders want company to speak with BAE Systems CEO Charles Woodburn about BP CEO job - Sky News
TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co.) -- JV consortium partners PGS, TGS and SLB secure pre-funding to expand MultiClient 2D seismic data coverage in the Sabah Basin offshore Malaysia
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- appoints Rohit Nagarajan as President and Chief Revenue Officer with immediate effect
China to sanction five US military manufacturers for selling weapons to Taiwan - Reuters
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $85.4M, (19.6%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
Barclays upgrades BWY.LN, CRST.LN
Goldman Sachs upgrades ELE.SM, ELI.BB, RED.SM
Morgan Stanley upgrades AMP.IM, SOON.SW
GEBN.SW (Geberit) -- to hold from reduce at HSBC
TEMN.SW (Temenos) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
LGEN.LN (Legal & General Group) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
ELI.BB (Elia Group) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Downgrades
Barclays downgrades BDEV.LN, BKG.LN
Goldman Sachs downgrades EDPR.PL, FORTUM.FH
Morgan Stanley downgrades DEMANT.DC, FME.GR
BFG.SS (BYGGFAKTA) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
ROCK.B.DC (Rockwool) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
EQNR.NO (Equinor) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
PRU.LN (Prudential) -- to hold from buy at Daiwa
EDPR.PL (EDP Renovaveis) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
ELE.SM (Endesa) --to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
NTGY.SM (Naturgy) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Data
Nikkei +0.00% to 33377.42
Hang Seng (2.18%) to 16175.39
Shanghai Composite (1.33%) to 2890.17
S&P futures (6.0) vs prior close of 4734.8
€-$ +0.0000 or +0.00% to 1.0945
$-¥ (0.42) or (0.29%) to 144.17
€-¥ (0.46) or (0.29%) to 157.78
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