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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.16%, Hang Seng (0.21%), Shanghai Composite +0.20% as of 03:10 ET

Jan 09 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mixed Tuesday with most indices off their peaks if not lower. Japan and Australia closed around 1% higher to follow through from Nasdaq strength overnight. Hong Kong reversed early gains to finish lower, mainland benchmarks edged higher. Seoul finished down as Samsung dragged post results warning, Taipei also lower. India higher, Southeast Asia mostly higher. US futures lower, Europe opened flat. US dollar flat, AUD reversed early gains to end session lower, yen also pared early strength. Treasury yields higher across tenors, China sovereign yields at three-year low. Crude futures higher after being lower for much of the day, precious metals also reversing early dip, industrial metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies stable after reaching 21-month high overnight.

    • The almost year-long pattern of outperformance in Japan and underperformance in China continued today as the Nikkei reached 33-year highs and the Hang Seng ended at post pandemic lows, holding the 16K mark but appearing fragile again with early gains lost by the close. Elsewhere, South Korea's Kospi closed lower after Samsung Electronics missed earnings expectations for Q4.

    • Supporting the rally on Wall Street and Japan was positive consumer data from the US overnight that pointed to lower inflation expectations along with a sharp correction in oil prices. This was offset by a pair of hawkish comments, leading to Fed Fund Futures showing an even less chance of a March rate cut than expected last week. Nevertheless, bonds rallied to send the dollar lower, underpinning early gains in Asia before local drivers gained traction.

    • With this, a PBOC official flagged a potential RRR cut, backing consensus forecasts for 25 bp easing in Q1. Tokyo CPI inflation eased while Japan household spending lagged. Australia retail sales topped expectations on the back of Black Friday sales, while building approvals unexpectedly rose. A report showed China's population likely fell for a second successive year in 2023 on Covid deaths and depressed birth rates.

    • Sony Group (6758.JP) will terminate the merger deal between its India unit and Zee Entertainment (505537.IN). JD.com's (9618.HK) Dada Nexus unit reported certain 'suspicious practices' which cast doubt over revenues from its online advertising and marketing service. TikTok owner ByteDance said it was in talks with multiple buyers including Tencent (700.HK) over the sale of some of its gaming assets. Samsung Electronics' (005930.KR) expects profit to fall 35%, misses estimates on weak chip demand. SK Hynix (000660.KS) CEO says market value of company could double inside three years on AI chip demand. ICICI Bank (532174.IN) says it will hire more investment bankers on expectations of record fundraising year in India (Bloomberg). AirAsia and AirAsia X (5238.MK) brands are to be merged by owner Capital A (5099.MK) in a bid to streamline operations.

  • Digest:

    • PBOC official hints at possible RRR cut:

      • Bloomberg cited a Xinhua interview with PBOC head of monetary policy department Zou Lan, suggesting central bank may use monetary policy tools including open market operations, MLF, RRR to provide "strong" support for reasonable credit growth. Added that PBOC will strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policy adjustments to create favorable financial conditions for economic growth (repeating recent major policy announcements). Article recalled Zou made similar public comments last July, presaging an RRR cut in September. Recalled PBOC activity in December was focused on MLF liquidity injections totaling an unprecedented CNY800B ($111B) and even more was added through open market operations, for a combined effect equivalent to at least 50 bp in RRR easing. Noted China rate markets positioned for rate relief, encouraged by softer grip on yuan and recent reduction in bank deposit rates. Bloomberg consensus looks for 25 bp RRR cut in Q1. Recall that expectations for a Q4 move were pushed back as large-scale liquidity injections substituted for rate cuts.

    • Demographers say China's population likely fell again in 2023:

      • China's population likely fell for a second consecutive year in 2023 on surge in Covid-related deaths combined with still-depressed birth rate, caused in part by weak economy. Calculations by Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University said new births fell below 2022's 9.56M as long-term issues such as gender inequality and high childcare costs remain unresolved. Youth unemployment also remained high, wages among white-collar workers and civil servants fell, and property crisis intensified. Report author said weak economy more than offset positives from lifting Covid curbs. Lower birth rates expected after 2022 drop in marriage rates to lowest since 1979. Meanwhile, Covid-related deaths could be ten times higher than official figure of 121K; Reuters report quoted second demographer saying next week's official data may underreport population decline to hide magnitude of Covid impact to project optimism.

    • Australia retail sales beat on Black Friday sales, building approvals unexpectedly rise:

      • Retail sales rose 2.0% m/m in November, above consensus 1.2% and follows revised 0.4% decline in the previous month. ABS highlighted boost from Black Friday sales running earlier and longer than prior years. Suggested concentration in demand as consumers delayed October spending in anticipation of discounts, while also front-loading some Christmas purchases. Hence, strength in discretionary items was the biggest driver, overshadowing a broad-based increase across segments. Shifting consumer patterns prompted dedicated treatment of Black Friday effects as part of the ABS annual seasonal adjustment review. Building approvals rose 1.6% m/m in November, contrasting with expectations of a 2.0% drop, following revised 7.2% growth in October. Strength was attributed to growth in apartments, while approvals for houses fell. By region, overall growth was confined to Western Australia and Victoria, while other states logged decreases.

    • Japan Tokyo core CPI eases as expected, household spending lags:

      • Tokyo core CPI rose 2.1% y/y in December, matching expectations. Follows 2.3% in the previous month and marks the lowest reading since June 2022. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation edged lower to 3.5% from 3.6%, extending marginal pace of moderation to a fourth straight month. Energy drags deepened on the back of sharper declines in electricity and gas prices. Elsewhere, softening was driven by slower increases in non-fresh food and accommodation. Goods inflation slowed to 2.6%, softest since November 2021, while closely watched services prices remained above 2% for a third straight month. Household spending fell 2.9% y/y in November, softer than expectations of a 2.3% decline. Translated to 1.0% m/m slide in seasonally adjusted terms, following 0.1% fall in October. Sequential weakness was skewed by major declines in housing and education, followed by transport & communication and medical care. Outweighed notable growth in apparel and furniture/household goods. Ex-housing GDP input measure rebounded 1.8% m/m from a 0.7% dip in the prior month, offering relatively positive implications for Q4 GDP, though housing weakness consistent with activity in construction starts.

    • BOJ was likely a net seller of equities in 2023:

      • Nikkei suggested BOJ was likely a net seller of equities last year for the first time since launching its ETF purchase program in 2010. Explained that sales of stocks previously purchased from banks as part of measures to stabilize the financial system likely outstripped ETF purchases, which decreased significantly because of stabilizing stock prices. While repeating long-discussed dwindling ETF buying, article noted stock selling coming from those purchased from banks between 2002~2004 and 2009~2010 under a 10-year exit plan spanning FY16 to FY25. Recalled that BOJ initially sought to sell its holdings of ~JPY3T ($20.8B) at a steady pace of JPY300B per year. With progress generally according to plan, estimated JPY300B in sales last year exceeds the JPY210B in ETF purchases, though noted sales figures may be higher given the rise in the market. Story said experts are split on how to evaluate this development, though comments cited were directed at the ETF program -- which demonstrated some efficacy in past episodes of depressed sentiment, though equity market support masks problems at the company level.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +9.1% 2432.JP (DeNA Co.): equity-method affiliate company GO Inc. commences preparation for listing shares

      • +6.4% 601888.CH (China Tourism Group Duty Free): reports preliminary FY net income attributable CNY6.72B vs FactSet CNY6.66B

      • +5.0% 2501.JP (Sapporo Holdings): activist 3D Investment Partners now largest holder of Sapporo Holdings

      • +2.6% 402340.KS (SK Square Co.): clarifies 11Street sale terms not yet determined

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -21.6% 2453.HK (Concord Healthcare Group Co., Ltd.): opens (31.4%) at HK$9.80/share on HKEx

      • -6.0% 8098.JP (Inabata & Co.): Sumitomo Chemical to sell up to 8.2M Inabata shares for ¥24.0B

      • -5.6% 505537.IN (Zee Entertainment Enterprises): Sony reportedly to terminate deal to merge Sony India with Zee Entertainment Enterprises

      • -1.1% 6178.JP (Japan Post Holdings): Japan reportedly to withdraw Postal Privatization Law; Japan Post can continue to hold Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Life Insurance

      • -0.6% 6702.JP (Fujitsu): certain UK politicians reportedly reasserting pressure on Fujitsu following post office scandal

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • December Tokyo core CPI +2.1% y/y vs consensus +2.1% and +2.3% in prior month

          • CPI excl. fresh food & energy +3.5% y/y vs +3.6% in prior month

          • Overall CPI +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and revised +2.7% in prior month

        • November household spending (2.9%) y/y vs consensus (2.3%) and (2.5%) in prior month

          • Spending (1.0%) m/m vs (0.1%) in prior month

      • Australia November

        • Retail sales +2.0% m/m vs consensus +1.2% and revised (0.4%) in prior month

        • Building approvals +1.6% m/m vs consensus (2.0%) and revised +7.2% in September

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 385.76 or +1.16% to 33763.18

      • Hang Seng: (34.43) or (0.21%) to 16190.02

      • Shanghai Composite: 5.71 or +0.20% to 2893.25

      • Shenzhen Composite: 5.95 or +0.34% to 1746.03

      • ASX200: 69.00 or +0.93% to 7520.50

      • KOSPI: (6.58) or (0.26%) to 2561.24

      • SENSEX: 635.64 or +0.89% to 71990.86

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.06) or (0.04%) to 144.1730

      • $-KRW: +3.61 or +0.27% to 1317.6100

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.26%) to 0.6699

      • $-INR: +0.06 or +0.08% to 83.1060

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1569

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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