Jan 11 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asia equities poised to open lower Friday. Futures in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia all traded moderately softer. US contracts were marginally lower, following a mixed and choppy cash session. Tech leads positive as Nasdaq outperformed alongside gains in SOX and Golden Dragon China index. Treasuries stronger with curve steepening, and 30y auction well received with solid foreign demand. Dollar was weaker on the yen cross but little changed vs the euro. Gold ended down 0.4%. Bitcoin futures were up 0.1% in somewhat choppy trading following expected SEC ETF approvals; earlier touched highest level since Dec-21. WTI crude settled up 0.9%.
Headline US CPI was firmer than expected, though core inflation was in line. In combination with depressed initial jobless claims, latest data fit with Fed rhetoric indicating rate cuts may come later rather than sooner. Cleveland Fed President Mester said March is probably too early for a rate cut and that the slowdown in QT is not imminent, while Richmond's Barkin said he still needs to be convinced inflation is stabilizing. Attention shifts to earnings season, expected to be a big catalyst over next few weeks with nearly 75% of S&P 500 market cap out by week-ended 9-Feb.
Asia-related headlines remained quiet. Takeaways from the BOJ Regional Economic Report reinforced perceptions that a January rate hike is all but ruled out. Contents were less than resounding despite some signs wage hikes are permeating in rural areas. Key swing factor was still the 1-Jan Noto Peninsula earthquake, prompting thoughts BOJ needs more time to assess impacts. Local press reported BOJ considering downward revision to its FY24 inflation forecast to the mid-2% range from current 2.8% amid lower crude oil prices. OECD's recommendation to end NIRP this year gained some traction. PBOC expected to cut MLF rate 10 bp in Monday's operation with a smaller net liquidity injection following last month's record amount.
Today's macro focus on China. FactSet consensus looks for declines in both PPI and CPI to moderate somewhat after CPI fell at the fastest pace since November 2020 in the prior month. Recall headline figure was skewed by fresh food volatility while core inflation remained steady. Still, PPI showed notable weakness in downstream prices, attesting to soft domestic demand. Trade data also tentatively slated for release today. Exports unexpectedly turned positive in November, providing some encouragement, though takeaways generally deferred to weak export trend in PMI data. Markets also still awaiting credit data as a barometer for corporate activity.
Pre-open Company News:
1963.HK -- The Bank of Chongqing chairman Lin Jun resigns due to reaching age of retirement, effective today
532540.IN -- CORRECTION: Tata Consultancy Services reports Q3 operating income INR141.97B vs StreetAccount INR147.44B
1769.HK -- Scholar Education Group initiated buy at TF Securities
002602.CH -- Zhejiang Century Huatong Group to launch CNY50-100M on-market buyback at no more than CNY8.14/share
000963.CH -- Huadong Medicine's marketing registration application for Relmapirazin Injection accepted by NMPA
603882.CH -- Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group completes up to CNY100.0M share buyback announced on 18-Dec-23
1925.JP -- Daiwa House Industry issues ¥200B Euroyen convertible bonds due in 2029, 2030; proceeds to fund ¥80B share buyback
CABIA reports December China total power battery production 77.7GWh, +48.1% y/y
532540.IN -- Tata Consultancy Services reports Q3 consolidated EPS INR30.29 vs StreetAccount INR31.62
002236.CH -- Zhejiang Dahua Technology reports preliminary FY net income attributable CNY7.37B vs year-ago CNY2.32B
PNN.LN -- UK's CMA serves an initial enforcement order as it begins review of Pennon Group's acquisition of Sutton and East Surrey Water
9983.JP -- Street Takeaways - FAST RETAILING CO. Q1 Earnings
3407.JP -- Asahi Kasei's Zoll Medical awarded max $611.7M Defense Logistics Agency contract modification
2882.HK -- Luk Fook holdings (international) increases offer price for acquisition of HKRH to HK$0.748/sh from HK$0.7/sh
002050.CH -- Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls initiated buy at Huaan Securities (timing uncertain)
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
08:00 CST: Loan Growth Y/Y; consensus
08:00 CST: New Yuan Loans; consensus
08:00 CST: M2 NSA Y/Y; consensus
09:30 CST: CPI NSA Y/Y; consensus (0.4%)
09:30 CST: PPI NSA Y/Y; consensus (2.6%)
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Bank Loans NSA Y/Y; consensus
Earnings:
COSMOS Pharmaceutical (3349.JP), Money Forward (3994.JP), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.JP), Lawson (2651.JP), SHIFT Inc (3697.JP), YASKAWA Electric (6506.JP), Ryohin Keikaku (7453.JP)
Australia:
Economic:
11:30 AEST: Housing Finance SA M/M; consensus
Market Data:
Gold (Feb 24): +$17.90 or +0.89% to $2037.10
WTI Crude (Feb 24): +$1.12 or +1.56% to $73.14
$-¥: (0.68) or (0.47%) to 145.0760
$-KRW: (7.44) or (0.56%) to 1312.1000
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.16%) to 0.6690
$-INR: +0.06 or +0.08% to 83.0788
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.15%) to 7.1611
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