Jan 11 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets generally ended the day lower, as shares gave up initial gains during the morning and extended falls into the close
Greece +0.3% bucked the lower trend, leading outperformers along with Netherlands (0.0%) and Portugal (0.2%). Belgium, Switzerland both (0.9%) join FTSE100 and DAX in leading underperformers
The limited numbers of economic data releases include final CPI's for Netherlands and Portugal, both in line with preliminary release, and Nov industrial production for Italy - worse than expected, and Spain - topping expectations
ECB published its latest Economic Bulletin, whilst focus was also on comments from central bank governors Bank of France's Villeroy, Bank of Spain's de Cos, Bank of Crotia's Vuj�?ić and Riksbank's Jansson
In the 687th day of the Russia-Ukraine war, in addition to the shelling and missile/drone attacks, heavy fighting is concentrated along the front line in the south and east, with claims of heavy military losses by both sides
Earnings/updates from companies included Tesco (TSCO.LN) Q3 LFL sales UK +7.9% vs consensus +7.4%, upgrades FY adj. operating profit guidance, Grafton Group (GFTU.LN) FY adj. operating profit is expected to be slightly ahead of the top end of analysts' forecasts and Taylor Wimpey (TW.LN) reaffirms expects FY operating profit to be at the top end of the guidance range of £440-470M. Also, OMV (OMV.AV) Q4 total hydrocarbon production of 364 kboe/d vs year-ago 385 kboe/d, VAT Group (VATN.SW) prelim. Q4 revenue CHF221M vs guidance CHF200-230M and FactSet 208.5M and Suedzucker (SZU.GR) Q3 EPS €0.80 vs year-ago €0.68, reaffirms FY guidance.
Amongst M&A news flow, Thomson Reuters offers to acquire Pagero and LondonMetric agrees to acquire LXi, whilst reportedly, founder of privately-owned catering equipment empire Nisbets in talks about a sale to Bunzl (BNZL.LN), and Aena (AENA.SM) weighs acquisition of Edinburgh airport for ~ £2.5B
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Chemicals (0.21%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.22%), Technology (0.31%), Telecom (0.37%), Travel & Leisure (0.46%), Oil & Gas (0.47%), Media (0.50%), Food & Beverage (0.50%), Basic Resources (0.65%), Construct & Mtls (0.71%)
Underperformers:
Banks (1.90%), Real Estate (1.34%), Utilities (1.25%), Retail (1.08%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.98%), Financial Svcs (0.96%), Insurance (0.92%), Health Care (0.82%), Autos & Parts (0.77%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
ECB:
Economic Bulletin - release
Finland:
Government decides that the border crossing points on the land border between Finland and Russia will remain closed until 11-Feb - release
France:
Banque de France estimates Q4 GDP +0.2% vs prior estimate +0.1% - business survey; Governor Villeroy doesn't see a recession hitting France in 2024 - France 2
Germany:
SPD politicians sound the alarm - "The situation is deeply worrying" - Handelsblatt
Ireland:
Taoiseach Varadkar will host a bilateral meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang during his visit to Ireland next week - RTE
Norway:
Spain:
Bank of Spain's de Cos speech after EU close last night - XIV Edicion Spain Investors Day
Sweden:
Riksbank's Jansson speech at an event organised by Swedbank
UK:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+20.3% PAGERO.SS (Pagero) -- Thomson Reuters (TRI.CN) makes recommended SEK40/share in cash offer
+18.6% WNWD.LN (Windward) -- expects FY results ahead of market expectations
+12.3% TRST.LN (Trustpilot Group) -- FY23 Adj. EBITDA above the top end of market expectations; announces ~£20M share buyback
+10.8% YOU.GR (ABOUT YOU Holding) -- Q3 net income (€10.4M) vs year-ago (€62.0M); now sees FY revenue growth around lower end of range of +1-11% y/y, reaffirms adjusted EBITDA guidance
+9.4% MER.LN (Mears Group) -- Raises FY revenue and Adj. profit before tax guidance
+9.4% ISOFOL.SS (Isofol Medical) -- names Magnus Hurst as new CFO, to replace Roy Jonebrant at the end of Jan
+9.0% DARK.LN (Darktrace) -- Expects ARR at 31-Dec of at least $701.7M, +24.3% y/y; guides H1 Adj. EBITDA margin above top end of previously communicated 17-19% FY24 guidance range
+6.7% RAA.GR (Rational) -- prelim FY revenue €1.13B vs FactSet €1.10B [12 est, €1.09-1.12B], EBIT €277M vs FactSet €258.4M [12 est, €248.5-264M]
+5.3% ELK.NO (Elkem) -- to buy from hold at Nordea
+3.5% GHT.LN (Gresham Technologies) -- FY trading update, Group Adjusted EBITDA and Group cash EBITDA at least in line with current market expectations with margins improving y/y
+2.7% MCOV.B.SS (Medicover) -- acquires IFLB Group in Berlin; terms undisclosed
+2.5% MPAC.LN (Mpac Group) -- expects FY underlying profit before tax in line with market expectations
+2.5% WSU.GR (Washtec) -- sells the majority of WashTec Car Cleaning Equipment (Shanghai) Co. to former management+2.2% XPP.LN (XP Power) -- trading update: FY revenue £316.5M vs FactSet £308.3M
+2.4% RWA.LN (Robert Walters) -- Q4 Trading Update; guides FY profit before tax in-line with market expectations (company compiled) of £20.5M
+2.3% WTB.LN (Whitbread) -- Q3 trading update: total like-for-like sales growth +8% y/y; with strong trading momentum, confirms FY24 guidance
+2.1% HFG.LN (Hilton Food Group) -- Expects to report FY results in line with the board's expectations, with continued revenue growth and operational progress
+1.9% AA4.LN (Amedeo Air Four Plus) -- raises interim dividend +14.3% y/y to 2.00p/share
In earnings/updates: BOSN.SW (Bossard Holding), ENX.FP (Euronext), KGH.LN (Knights Group Holdings), CAML.LN (Central Asia Metals), SPKSJF.DC (Sparekassen Sjælland-Fyn), DAB.DC (Danske Andelskassers Bank), SVS.LN (Savills), TIBN.SW (Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis), AGR.AV (Agrana Beteiligungs) and reversing initial falls GET.FP (Getlink), OVH.FP (OVHCloud), SQN.SW (Swissquote Group Holding)
Notable Decliners
-27.8% NWO.GR (New Work) -- reaffirms FY pro-forma guidance; EBITDA €92-100M vs FactSet €90.8M, to cut jobs, dividend, FY24 guidance below consensus
-16.7% ABDX.LN (Abingdon Health) --H1 revenues £2.4M, +118% y/y
-12.4% TRIN.LN (Trinity Exploration & Production) -- Q4 EBITDA (pre-hedging) $4.1M vs year-ago $7.0M
-12.9% VBK.GR (Verbio) -- to sell from buy at Deutsche Bank
-11.1% KOMN.SW (Komax Holding) -- hold from buy at Mirabaud
-11.2% HUNT.NO (Hunter Group) -- completes private placement, raising NOK124M at NOK1.75/share
-9.6% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo) -- Q4 production report: total iron ore pellet production 577,140 tonnes from own ore, (54%) q/q
-9.2% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic) -- partner Eisai announces EMA's Scientific Advisory Group will convene to discuss the MAA of lecanemab
-8.0% DDRIL.LN (Dolphin Drilling) -- Court of Appeal in the UK hands down judgement regarding legacy tax case; company to appeal decision
-6.8% IVA.FP (Inventiva) -- draws down second tranche of €25M under existing finance contract with European Investment Bank
-5.5% MKS.LN (Marks & Spencer Group) -- Q3 trading update: Group sales £3.86B, +7.2% y/y; confident that results for the year will be consistent with market expectations
-4.3% HAUTO.NO (Höegh Autoliners) -- Dec prorated transported cargo 1.3M CBM
-4.0% CATE.SS (Catena) -- to hold from buy at Carnegie Securities
-3.2% TW.LN (Taylor Wimpey) -- FY trading update: reaffirms expect FY operating profit to be at the top end of the guidance range of £440-470M
-2.9% AZM.IM (Azimut) -- anticipates 2023 adj. net profit of €445-455M, in line with FY target of €450M; FactSet €431.7M
-2.8% DATA.LN (GlobalData) -- FY revenue £273M vs FactSet £275.9M, reflecting annual growth of +12% y/y (7% underlying)
-2.3% INF.LN (Informa)
Trading Update: expects to report 2023 Adj. Operating Profit ~£845M vs FactSet £851.9M [11 est, £839.1-927.0M]
TechTarget (TTGT) announces strategic combination with Informa Tech's digital businesses
-2.0% CEM.IM (Cementir Holding) -- reaffirms FY23 guidance and 2025 financial targets
-1.7% NDA.SE.SS (Nordea Bank) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
In earnings/updates: SZU.GR (Suedzucker), BYG.LN (Big Yellow Group) and reversing initial gains GFTU.LN (Grafton Group), VACN.SW (VAT Group), OMV.AV (OMV), TSCO.LN (Tesco)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: Unieuro (UNIR.IM)
Trading Update: Vistry Group (VTY.LN), DFDS (DFDS.DC)
Data:
Economics:
Netherlands Dec CPI +1.2% y/y vs preliminary +1.2%
Italy Nov Industrial Production (3.1%) y/y vs consensus (0.7%) and prior (1.1%)
Spain Nov Industrial Production +0.8% y/y vs consensus +0.3% and prior revised to (1.4%) from (1.5%)
Portugal Dec CPI +1.4% vs preliminary +1.4%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Feb 24): +$2.23 or +3.12% to $73.60
€-$ (0.0027) or (0.25%) to 1.0946
£-$ (0.0037) or (0.29%) to 1.2706
€-£ +0.0004 to 0.8616
S&P 500 (0.82%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: (2.03%)
DAX: (1.22%)
CAC: (2.06%)
MIB: (0.34%)
Stoxx 600: (1.30%)
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