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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.50%, Hang Seng (0.35%), Shanghai Composite (0.16%) as of 03:10 ET

Jan 12 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities closed out the week with a mixed day Friday. Japan's benchmarks led the gainers with another surge at the open and ended the week at a 34-year high. Strong gains in India on the back of Infosys results, Southeast Asia also generally higher. Downside led by Shenzhen and Hang Seng on disappointing inflation and trade data. Seoul fell for the eighth day in a row, Taipei saw cautious trading ahead of its elections this weekend. US futures weaker, Europe opened lower. Dollar flat, AUD stronger in Asia. Treasury yields higher across tenors. Crude oil significantly higher following UK and US airstrikes on Houthi rebels. Precious metals also higher, industrial metals also well bid. Cryptocurrencies slightly lower.

    • A rather quiet session to end the week as geopolitical risks ratchet higher and oil prices surged. Greater China markets drifted lower again with the Hang Seng and Nikkei seeing contrasting fortunes over the week with a more than 7% performance delta. More wobbly data out of China today as the December export headline figure rose by more than expected but was set against a very weak Dec-22 while exports by major trading bloc saw further contraction, ex Russia. Consumer prices fell for a third consecutive month and are seeing the country's longest deflationary run since 2010. This, combined with the property slump and worrying demographic changes led to more warnings today over the 'Japanification' of China's economy.

    • The PBOC is expected to cut its MLF rate 10 bp in Monday's operation with a smaller net liquidity injection following last month's record amount, but pressure is also building for it to cut RRRs to support the economy. Ahead this weekend, Taiwan's parliamentary and Presidential elections, with cross-strait tensions increasing rapidly in the final days before the vote.

    • Renesas Electronics (6723.JP) is to buy Transphorm (TGAN) for around ¥49.33B ($339M). Nippon Steel (5401.JP) said the regulatory review of its proposed takeover of US Steel could take up to a year. SBI Holdings (8473.JP) is under investigation by the Japan Financial Services Authority for allegedly manipulating the prices of IPOs in which it was the lead underwriter. Taeyoung E&C (009410.KS) received 96% support from creditors for its debt restructuring plan. Infosys (500209.IN) Q3 growth and margins beat expectations and the company narrowed its FY growth guidance but said margins would stabilize; stock rose sharply.

  • Digest:

    • China trade data better than expected, but outlook remains uncertain:

      • Customs exports rose 2.3% y/y in dollar terms, above consensus 1.5% and follows 0.5% in the previous month. By region, US exports fell back after logging the first increase in 16 months in November, while declines to EU narrowed sharply and ASEAN easing mildly (SCMP). General Administration of Customs warned of increasing complexity, severity and uncertainty in the external environment this year. 2023 aggregates took much of the limelight with exports down 4.6% from last year's record-high and marked the first decrease since 2016 (Bloomberg). Imports edged up 0.2% y/y in December, contrasting with expected 0.5% decline after a 0.6% drop in November. 2023 total was down 5.5%, leaving a trade surplus of $823B. Signal value of export growth still discounted due to favorable base effects and year-end seasonality. However, soft imports seen as more genuine indication of weak domestic demand. Still, near-term prospects for global demand may be turning positive as China export growth joins South Korea, Germany and Taiwan (Reuters). Further ahead, much seen depending on the pace of rate cuts from Fed and ECB this year to support demand.

    • China deflation eases, though CPI fell for third straight month:

      • CPI fell 0.3% y/y in December, compared to expectations of a 0.4% decline. Follows 0.5% fall in November, which was the biggest drop since November 2020. Still, initial reactions were bearish as latest figure marked the third straight decline, the longest streak since 2009 (Bloomberg). Core inflation remained steady at 0.6%. Headline remains skewed down by food prices as pork was down 26.1% (albeit less sharp than prior month), though 1.1% decline in consumer goods continue to contrast with steady 1.0% rise in services. NBS attributed sequential increase to cold weather and higher demand before holidays. PPI decline also moderated to 2.7% from 3.0%, compared to consensus 2.6%. Developments were marginal as upstream price declines narrowed marginally, while downstream prices fell at a steady pace. Recall that inflation among the data points indicating subdued domestic demand and supporting calls for more policy easing. Latest market rhetoric suggested concerns shifting to deflation risk over yuan depreciation after latter was seen last year as a constraint against PBOC rate cuts.

    • PBOC seen cutting MLF rate Monday with smaller net liquidity injection:

      • Bloomberg consensus looks for PBOC to lower the 1y MLF rate by 10 bp to 2.4% in the next operation Monday. This would mark the first cut since August. Rollover size also expected to provide net injection of CNY121B ($16.9B). Follows record net CNY800B addition last month. Cited thoughts policy measures likely to be front-loaded in January as preparations begin for the NPC in March. Also, suggestions a rate cut impact may be limited but would ease debt financing pressure. Article recalled recent developments -- PBOC consulted with several prominent economists about making monetary policy more effective (though there were no specifics). Head of monetary policy department Zou Lan told Xinhua they would use a variety of tools to provide "strong support" for reasonable growth in credit, and explicitly mentioned RRR cuts as an option. Article repeated there is growing room for easing with bond yields lowest since April 2020 and major banks cut deposit rates last month. Recall recent Bloomberg poll showed expectations for an RRR cut in Q1 after Q4 forecasts were pushed back as large-scale liquidity injections substituted for rate cuts.

    • BOJ regional report unconvincing for Jan rate hike, FY24 inflation forecast may be downgraded:

      • Nikkei discussed ongoing uncertainties in the economic outlook, suggesting the 1-Jan Noto Peninsula earthquake cast a shadow over monetary policy. Despite some signs of wage hikes in the BOJ regional economic report, article cited market perceptions there is no evidence to justify a January rate hike. One branch manager said it would take time to assess earthquake effects. Piece noted predictions for a January move had anticipated confirmation of wage hikes and cost passthrough among small business in regional areas, though report findings were underwhelming, and expectations diminished after the earthquake. BOJ source remarked that monetary policy can be conducted independently of earthquake effects, though admitted bar is higher as they assess damages. Separately, Reuters cited a Jiji report indicating BOJ considering revising down its FY24 inflation forecast to the mid-2% range (vs current 2.8%) in the upcoming quarterly update. Added that recent declines in crude oil prices would prompt a downgrade. OECD recommendation for BOJ to start rate hikes from early 2024 gained some traction (Kyodo). Reflected confidence in OECD projections for sustained inflation around 2%, increasing wage growth and closing output gap. Also urged BOJ to enhance flexibility of YCC.

    • US Steel review expected to last at least a year:

      • Bloomberg sources indicated a US national security review of Nippon Steel's (5401.JP) takeover of United States Steel (X) is unlikely to conclude until late this year and may extend into 2025. That timeframe is said to be within the comparable range for reviews of this scale yet contrasts with statements from US Steel and Nippon Steel executives who have said they expect to complete the deal by the spring or end of summer. US Steel spokesperson reaffirmed prediction that the transaction will be completed by the end of September and was hopeful for a successful review. Article noted the deal triggered calls from Biden and Democratic lawmakers for close government review of the deal, while also noting political sensitivity against the backdrop of the 2024 presidential election. Notable opposition already expressed by Pennsylvania Democratic Senators Bob Casey and John Fetterman and the United Steelworkers union. Article cited two senior administration officials expecting the review to be on the longer side of the typical CFIUS time frame.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +7.7% 500209.IN (Infosys): reports Q3 revenue INR388.21B vs StreetAccount INR387.90B, EBIT INR79.61B vs StreetAccount INR79.47B

      • +6.3% 9983.JP (FAST RETAILING CO.): reports Q1 revenue ¥810.83B vs FactSet ¥801.13B, operating income ¥146.69B vs FactSet ¥136.99B

      • +2.0% 3008.TT (LARGAN Precision): reports Q4 EPS NT$37.25 vs FactSet NT$41.97, revenue NT$17.88B vs FactSet NT$17.28B

      • +0.4% 6723.JP (Renesas Electronics): enters definitive agreement to acquire Transphorm for $5.10 (¥742.1)/share in cash

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -6.3% 000661.CH (Changchun High & New Technology Industries (Group)): substantial shareholder to transfer 30.0M shares in divorce settlement

      • -2.7% 8473.JP (SBI Holdings): Financial Services Authority reportedly believes SBI Holdings has been manipulating IPO prices

      • -2.6% 3382.JP (Seven & i): reports Q3 operating income ¥168.90B vs FactSet ¥169.46B; to acquire 204 gas stations and convenience stores from Sunoco LP for $950M (¥137.46B)

      • -2.2% 1925.JP (Daiwa House Industry Co.): issues ¥200B Euroyen convertible bonds due in 2029, 2030; proceeds to fund ¥80B share buyback; launches up-to ¥80.00B off-auction buyback; terminates prior ¥35.00B buyback programme announced on 12-May

      • -0.6% 5401.JP (NIPPON STEEL): confirms Eiji Hashimoto appointed as Chairman; effective 1-Apr; regulatory review of proposed takeover of US Steel reportedly expected to take at least a year

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China

        • December trade balance $75.34B vs consensus $74.95B and $68.39B in prior month

          • Exports +2.3% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and +0.5% in prior month

          • Imports +0.2% y/y vs consensus (0.5%) and (0.6%) in prior month

        • December CPI (0.3%) y/y vs consensus (0.4%) and (0.5%) in prior month

          • PPI (2.7%) y/y vs consensus (2.6%) and (3.0%) in prior month

      • Japan

        • November current account balance ¥1,925.6B vs ¥2,582.8B in prior month

        • December bank lending +3.1% y/y vs +2.8% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 527.25 or +1.50% to 35577.11

      • Hang Seng: (57.46) or (0.35%) to 16244.58

      • Shanghai Composite: (4.67) or (0.16%) to 2881.98

      • Shenzhen Composite: (11.35) or (0.64%) to 1749.42

      • ASX200: (7.70) or (0.10%) to 7498.30

      • KOSPI: (15.22) or (0.60%) to 2525.05

      • SENSEX: 754.20 or +1.05% to 72475.38

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.28) or (0.20%) to 144.9960

      • $-KRW: (1.09) or (0.08%) to 1312.3900

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.29% to 0.6708

      • $-INR: (0.23) or (0.27%) to 82.8716

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1611

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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