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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.91%, Hang Seng (0.17%), Shanghai Composite +0.15% as of 03:10 ET

Jan 15 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mixed Monday. Nikkei closed at another 34-year high with the Topix also scaling fresh heights. India's Sensex reached a new all-time high. Modest gain in Taipei following weekend elections, Shanghai Composite also a little higher, and the Kospi was a few points better. On the downside, the Hang Seng and ASX closed lower to join several Southeast Asia markets. US futures flat (with the equity markets closed Monday), European markets opened higher. US dollar flat, yen weaker as BOJ rate hike hopes further fade. Treasury yields lower in thin trade. Crude oil futures flat, precious and industrial metals well bid. Cryptocurrencies higher but still volatile.

    • Underlying patterns in Asia equities held again Monday as Japan's benchmarks hit 34-year highs, the yen weakened, JGB 10Y yields hit six-month lows and the 2Y briefly turned negative. The Hang Seng posted more losses to languish at post-pandemic lows, and India's Sensex and Nifty benchmarks reached fresh record highs. The country's sovereign 10Y bond price and rupee also broke to four-month highs. South Korea broke the mold slightly, ending an eight-day losing streak with a small gain. Taiwan's markets eased higher on a modest relief rally after elections that posted no major surprises or strong reaction from Beijing.

    • In macro news, the PBOC made a larger-than-expected MLF liquidity injection, to follow December's record but left the rate unchanged against expectations of a 10 bps cut. Ahead this week, key economic data Wednesday expected to show GDP growth meeting government's 2023 target but December activity figures to reveal tepid economic momentum. Baidu under pressure on reports the China military was using its ChatGPT technology, while some tech stocks also fell on reports Nvidia chips had made their way to Chinese institutions attached to the military.

    • Baidu (9888.HK) denied its 'Ernie' ChatGPT large language models were being used by the military to test experimental AI-related defense systems but the stock corrected sharply on fears of US sanctions. Brilliance China Automotive's (1114.HK) largest shareholder is considering the sale of up to 25% of its stake in the company, and has held preliminary talks with prospective buyers. Logan Group (3380.HK) signed a creditor support agreement with a group of offshore bond holders. OCI Holdings (010060.KS) is to take a 27% stake in Hanmi Science (008930.KS) for KRW770.3B via a Hanmi share placement. The merger between Korean Airlines (003490.KS) and Asiana (020560.KS) looks set to be approved by the EC, according to reports.

  • Digest:

    • PBOC injects more than expected in MLF funds but leaves rate unchanged:

      • Newswires reported PBOC conducted a CNY995B MLF operation for a net injection of CNY216B, higher than consensus CNY121B. However, the 1-year MLF rate was unchanged at 2.50% compared to expectations of a 10 bp cut. MLF operations continue to focus on large liquidity supply following record net CNY800B injection in December. Rate cut expectations reflected ongoing calls for more policy stimulus as economic growth momentum continues to look shaky. Follows broadly bearish takeaways from recent data -- CPI logged the third straight decline in year-ago terms for the longest down streak since 2009. Friday's credit figures showed new loans were smaller than expected in December despite taking the 2023 total to a record high. Both indicators seen reflecting soft domestic demand. Bloomberg noted growing expectations for an RRR cut after a PBOC official recently said RRR would be among various policy options. Economists cited a range of factors that may explain the PBOC's reluctance to lower rates, such as the uncertain timing of Fed rate cuts, concerns about yuan strength, potential for a rate cut to trigger volatility as well as bank NIM compression.

    • BOJ economic forecast updates to remain conducive for policy normalization:

      • Reuters cited sources discussing BOJ's upcoming economic forecast updates in the January Outlook Report. While FY24 core inflation projection seen likely to be revised down from current 2.8% due to lower crude oil prices, trajectory will stay close to the 2% target, underscoring cautious optimism towards steady progress in sustainably achieving the target level. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation estimates currently at 1.9% in FY24 and FY25 are unlikely to be revised significantly. FY23 GDP forecast of 2.0% likely to be downgraded after the sharp contraction in Q3. Three sources said broad uptrend in inflation and wages remains intact. BOJ will likely acknowledge momentum in rising wages by companies but stress the need to scrutinize whether pay rises will broaden and compel companies to pass on higher labor costs via price hikes. Article recalled market expectations of a January policy change have receded after the Noto Peninsula earthquake and last month's dovish comments by Governor Ueda. Attention shifting to the January Outlook Report and Ueda's next press conference for potential clues on a move in March or April.

    • Chinese military and state-run institutions acquired Nvidia chips despite export ban:

      • Reuters reported China's military, and state-run AI research institutes and universities have acquired Nvidia (NVDA) semiconductors over past 12 months despite US export ban. Documents showed dozens of Chinese entities bought and received Nvidia graphic processing chips even after restrictions were imposed. Article said institutions had bought, taken delivery of Nvidia's A100 and H100 chip, banned in Sep-22, and A800 and H800 chips, designed for China market but banned in Oct-23. At least two academic entities subject to US export restrictions because of involvement in military matters or institutions identified as receiving AI-related chips. Said not clear how suppliers procured chips but noted burgeoning Chinese underground market for semiconductors since ban imposed; supply may come from excess stock at US firms or through importers incorporated in third-party countries. Separately, Baidu (9888.HK) denied reports its Ernie ChatGPT large language models are being used by military to test experimental AI-related defense systems, could lead to sanctions if true (SCMP).

    • No letup in China equity market sell-off:

      • China equities extending underperformance in 2024 with CSI 300 and Hang Seng down more than 4% month-to-date. Ongoing weakness in key growth indicators, property market slump and stimulus disappointment remain widely cited overhangs. Property stocks bearing brunt of the selling with Mainland Properties index down more than10%. Heavy losses also in growth space with Hang Seng tech index off by more than 8% this month amid fallout from regulatory uncertainty in online gaming space. China deflation driving underperformance of consumer stocks as firms compete aggressively on pricing to lure customers (Bloomberg). Geopolitical tensions spurring more foreign outflows with overseas funds pulling CNY7.9B from onshore equities in first two weeks of January (Bloomberg). Derivatives markets also signaling lack of conviction (Bloomberg). While Hang Seng China Enterprises Index put-to-call ratio is below one, strategists say this could reflect funds choosing to exit positions entirely than buy downside protection.

    • US strikes more Houthi targets in Yemen, supply chain concerns persist:

      • US hit more Houthi facilities over weekend with airstrike on Saturday targeting radar facility in Yemen (Reuters) and reports of another strike on Sunday (Bloomberg). US also shot down cruise missile fired by Houthis at Navy destroyer (Bloomberg). Comes after US and UK launched some 70 airstrikes on Houthi targets early Friday in response to the Iranian-backed group's repeated targeting of ships transiting Red Sea (Bloomberg). Asia-Europe spot shipping rates have spiked in recent weeks (Reuters) some auto retailers have paused output in Europe due to shortage of components (Reuters), Qatar appears to have halted LNG shipments via Red Sea (Bloomberg). With Houthis vowing to respond, elevated tensions could see Red Sea shipping disrupted for months. Re-routing around Cape of Good Hope in Africa adds some 10-15 days to Asia-Europe delivery times and $1M in fuel costs for a single voyage. Prospect of prolonged disruption stoking concerns of fresh threats to supply chains that renews pricing pressures and slows disinflation momentum.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +12.8% 008930.KS (Hanmi Science Co.): proposes 6.4M-share placement at KRW37,300/share; OCI Holdings to take 27.0% stake in Hanmi Science for KRW770.29B

      • +7.5% 2651.JP (Lawson): reports 9M net income attributable ¥45.88B, +49% vs year-ago ¥30.85B; guides FY revenue ¥1.090T vs prior guidance ¥1.080T and FactSet ¥1.081T, core operating profit ¥88.00B vs prior guidance ¥85.00B and FactSet ¥83.61B

      • +5.0% 3380.HK (Logan Group): signs creditor support agreement with ad hoc group; resumes trading

      • +3.5% 354.HK (Chinasoft International): to continue current on-market share buyback for up to HK$1.5B

      • +2.2% 1929.HK (Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group): reports Q3 key operation data; retail sales volume growth +46.1% y/y

      • +0.4% 003490.KS (KOREAN AIR LINES Co.): EC reportedly to approve Korean Air's purchase of Asiana Airlines

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -19.9% 3697.JP (SHIFT Inc): reports Q1 revenue ¥25.07B vs FactSet ¥26.10B, operating income ¥1.82B vs FactSet ¥2.00B

      • -11.5% 9888.HK (Baidu): Chinese military research lab reportedly tests AI system on Baidu's Ernie, iFlyTek's Spark; Baidu reportedly denies connection to the research laboratory

      • -4.2% 128940.KS (Hanmi Pharmaceutical Co.): Hanmi Pharmaceutical Co. KRW337,000.00, -16,000.00) -- reportedly facing management rights dispute as group president opposes decision to integrate with OCI

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Australia

        • December

          • ANZ-Indeed job advertisements +0.1% m/m vs revised (5.1%) in November

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 324.68 or +0.91% to 35901.79

      • Hang Seng: (28.25) or (0.17%) to 16216.33

      • Shanghai Composite: 4.31 or +0.15% to 2886.29

      • Shenzhen Composite: (5.84) or (0.33%) to 1743.58

      • ASX200: (2.00) or (0.03%) to 7496.30

      • KOSPI: 0.94 or +0.04% to 2525.99

      • SENSEX: 574.64 or +0.79% to 73143.09

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.47 or +0.33% to 145.3390

      • $-KRW: +6.07 or +0.46% to 1319.4200

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.24%) to 0.6672

      • $-INR: (0.01) or (0.02%) to 82.8590

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.11% to 7.1700

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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