Jan 15 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open slightly higher in what should be a relatively quiet session with US closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. European equities ended broadly flat last week as investors weighed up geopolitical tensions with rate cuts hopes.
Asian equities mixed Monday. Nikkei set to close at fresh 34-year highs with India's markets also scaling to all-time highs. Press takeaways from Taiwan election note result continues cross-strait status quo while DPP's loss of parliamentary majority seen curtailing President-elect Lai Ching-te's domestic and foreign policy agenda. PBOC injects more than expected in MLF funds but leaves rate unchanged.
European macro data releases out today include Germany 2023 GDP, Italy Nov trade balance, Sweden Dec CPI, Norway Dec trade balance, Finland Dec CPI, Eurozone Nov trade balance, industrial production, UK Jan house price index - Rightmove
Today's agenda also sees Eurogroup with ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone among the participants. Davos kicks off (through Fri). BAFT Europe Bank to Bank Forum (through Wed), speakers include Deutsche Bank's (DBK.GR) CFO. Prof. of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology speech at 18:30GMT title Inflation: new and old perspectives, at event hosted by LSE's Dept. of Economics and Economica.
On the corporate front, Dassault Aviation (AM.FP) released details of its FY23 orders and deliveries late Friday with Falcon performance falling below both order and delivery expectations and prompting Deutsche Bank to downgrade its rating on the shares. SoftwareONE (SWON.SW) anounces Bain's CHF18.80/sh offer not in the best interest of company; to remain standalone and confirms FY23 guidance. Focus on German banks M&A following report (BBG) late Friday that Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) has recently stepped up internal deliberations about the possibility of takeovers involving European lenders including Commerzbank (CBK.GR) and ABN Amro Bank (ABN.NA). Reuters meanwhile cites a person familiar with German Finance Minister Christian Lindner's thinking says that he is open to a disposal of the government's remining 15% stake in Commerzbank.
Politics/Macro/World News
ECB to Cut Interest Rates Four Times This Year, Survey Shows - Bloomberg
ECB's Lane says can be self-defeating if we recalibrate rates too fast - Corriere della Sera
Tories face 1997-style wipeout, poll suggests - London Times
Sunak's Allies Urge Him to Focus on Starmer, Not Farage Ahead of Election - Bloomberg
UK housing market gains momentum at start of 2024: Rightmove - Reuters
Finland Dec CPI +3.6% y/y vs consensus +3.4% and prior +3.3%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
AM.FP (Dassault Aviation) -- aircraft ordered and delivered in 2023; 13 Rafale (11 France, 2 Export) were delivered, while 15 had been guided; 26 Falcon were delivered, while 35 had been guided.
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- reports Dec sales €905.9M, (7.3%) y/y in comparable terms
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- SoftwareOne announces Bain's CHF18.80/sh offer not in the best interest of company; to remain standalone and confirms FY23 guidance
ATO.FP (ATOS SE) -- to meet its FY23 financial guidance for revenue and profits; FCF to be slightly below its target by ~(€100M)
KTN.GR (Kontron) -- guides FY net profit €87M vs prior guidance for >€72M and FactSet €74.1M [7 est, €72-77.7M
FLOW.NA (Flow Traders) -- reports December ETP market data
AOX.GR (Alstria) -- announces independent third party valuation determined value of ~ €4.0B for alstria's real estate portfolio as at 31-Dec-23 vs year-ago €4.6B
DNO.NO (DNO) -- trading update: Q4 Kurdistan gross operated production 65,773 boepd vs year-ago 107,822 boepd
M&A
DB (Deutsche Bank) -- reportedly exploring various M&A options to bolster share price, including (unlikely) acquisitions of Commerzbank AG and ABN Amro Bank NV - Bloomberg
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- merger speculation rekindled as German government considers selling stakes in companies it owns - Reuters
1114.HK (Brilliance China Automotive Holdings) -- Brilliance China Automotive's largest shareholder exploring sale of the company's 25% stake in BMW Brilliance Automotive - Bloomberg
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- SoftwareOne announces Bain's CHF18.80/sh offer not in the best interest of company; to remain standalone and confirms FY23 guidance
PAGERO.SS (Pagero) -- Thomson Reuters acquires 53.81% stake in Pagero, revises offer for remainder to SEK50/share; Pagero's Bid Committee unanimously recommends to accept Thomson Reuters' increased offer (
ORA.FP (Orange) -- Orange Bank rejects Ripplewood's offer - Les Echos
AVGO (Broadcom) -- getting interest from EQT AB, KKR, Thoma Bravo for its software business - Bloomberg
GRF.SM (Grifols) -- continues to work to close sale of 20% of SRAAS to Haier as originally planned
DKSH.SW (DKSH Holding) -- to acquire Medipharm Sdn Bhd for an undisclosed sum
SGML.CN (Sigma Lithium) -- BYD in "active" talks with Sigma Lithium about supply deal, JV, or acquisition - FT
500325.IN (Reliance Industries) -- Elkem to acquire REC Solar Norway AS from REC Solar Holdings AS; terms undiclosed
TPG.AU (TPG Telecom) -- Vodafone considers divesting its TPG Telecom stake - Australian Financial Review
Healthcare
ARQT (Arcutis Biotherapeutics) -- oresents new individual patient response data from Phase 3 studies of roflumilast cream 0.15%
ARQT (Arcutis Biotherapeutics) -- presents new subgroup analysis from STRATUM study of ZORYFE foam
SANN.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding) -- Santhera launches AGAMREE (Vamorolone) in Germany as first market for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy
Other
MT.NA (ArcelorMittal) -- France, ArcelorMittal agree on state aid contract enabling drastic reduction of CO2 emissions at steel plant
UMG.NA (Universal Music Group) -- confirms it's planning layoffs this year - Reuters
SPM.IM (Saipem) -- Brazilian administrative authority Controladoria-Geral da União (CGU) has issued against Saipem SA and Saipem do Brasil a sanctioning measure for the temporary suspension from contracting with the Brazilian public administration
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $67.9M, (34.1%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
BN.FP (Danone) -- to buy from sell at UBS
COP.GR (CompuGroup Medical) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg, to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
ADYEN.NA (Adyen) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
CAP.FP (Capgemini) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
TIETO.FH (Tietoevry) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
CON.GR (Continental) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
HMSO.LN (Hammerson) -- to add from hold at Peel Hunt
IVG.IM (Iveco Group) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
Downgrades
RBC Capital Markets downgrades ABBN.SW, ALFA.SS, SU.FP, and VACN.SW
Mediobanca downgrades A5G.ID, ALPHA.GA, BAMI.IM, others
BRBY.LN (Burberry Group) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs, to underperform from neutral at Mediobanc
SINCH.SS (Sinch) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon) -- Hexagon short-term recommendation downgraded to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
AMBU.B.DC (Ambu) -- Ambu long-term recommendation downgraded to market perform from outperform at Handelsbanken
EN.FP (Bouygues) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
AM.FP (Dassault Aviation) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
SUS.SS (Surgical Science Sweden) -- to hold from buy at Carnegie Securities
ALLEI.SS (Alleima) -- to hold from buy at SEB
NXU.GR (NEXUS) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
WCH.GR (Wacker Chemie) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
WLN.FP (Worldline) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
ATO.FP (ATOS) -- to reduce from hold at HSBC
SGE.LN (Sage) -- to hold from buy at Peel Hunt
OR.FP (L'Oreal) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
SDR.LN (Schroders) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
Data
Nikkei +0.91% to 35901.79
Hang Seng (0.40%) to 16178.84
Shanghai Composite +0.10% to 2884.79
S&P futures +4.3 vs prior close of 4816.5
€-$ +0.0016 or +0.15% to 1.0966
$-¥ +0.35 or +0.24% to 145.27
€-¥ +0.58 or +0.37% to 159.29
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