Jan 16 ,2024
Synopsis:
European indices ended lower with Switzerland the only exception. Banks, Real Estate and Utilities the worst performers, while Food/Beverage, Media and Technology sectors relative outperformers.
In macro updates and developments, UK labor market data shows small-than-expected increase in jobless claims, but cooling in wage growth. The Telegraph reported accountancy firm PwC's UK chairman Ellis said predictions of zero growth for the UK economy this year and only a modest expansion next year are too gloomy. UK inflation set to ease again as Bloomberg survey of economists shows headline inflation for December to come in at 3.8% versus prior 3.9%. Final German and Italy Dec CPI data in line with flash, respectively at +3.7% and +0.6%. Of note, German Jan ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator posted the sixth consecutive month of improvement at 15.2 vs consensus 12.0 and prior 12.8, after more half of survey participants anticipate an ECB rate cut in H1 of the year. ZEW current situation stood at (77.3) vs (77.0) expected, largely unchanged.
In earnings, Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR) reported prelim Q4 numbers and - still the DACH region - Lindt & Spruengli (LISN.SW) issued FY sales stats; also, DocMorris (DOCM.SW) posted a strong prelim Q4 report. In the UK, Ocado (OCDO.LN) release its Q4 trading statement and Experian (EXPN.LN) issued its Q3 trading update, with Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) also releasing its Q4 production report. Elsewhere, TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) and Grifols (GRF.MS) updated investors.
On M&A newsflow, press reports suggest that Lanxess (LXS.GR) is looking to sell its polyurethane unit and Frasers Group (FRAS.LN) is considering putting an offer for Meadowhall shopping center; also, Dp Eurasia (DPEU.LN) reached an agreement with Jubilant FoodWorks (533155.IN) for an increased offer price of 110p/sh vs prior 95p/sh. Further out of the UK, Panmure Gordon and Liberum announce an all-share merger to create the UK's largest independent Investment Bank.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, the UK Dec CPI/RPI/PPI input/output and Eurozone Dec final CPI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Food & Beverage +0.50%, Media +0.38%, Technology +0.18%, Telecom +0.08%, Insurance +0.03%, Health Care +0.03%, Financial Svcs (0.16%), Travel & Leisure (0.21%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.22%)
Underperformers
Banks (1.09%), Real Estate (1.05%), Utilities (1.00%), Basic Resources (0.72%), Construct & Mtls (0.56%), Retail (0.51%), Oil & Gas (0.48%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.48%), Chemicals (0.33%), Autos & Parts (0.27%)
Macro:
Central banks:
EU:
EU states give nod for Red Sea mission to deter Houthis - diplomats -- Reuters
UK:
Brits braced for a gloomy 2024 as two thirds expect UK to enter a recession -- IFAmagazine
Mortgage rate cuts continue despite economic fears -- BBC
Germany:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+15.8% ETX.LN (e-Therapeutics £0.17, +0.02) -- FY business update
+12.7% MOR.GR (Morphosys €38.00, +4.28) -- assumed equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
+10.5% SPT.LN (Spirent Communications £1.28, +0.12) -- FY trading update
+6.6% LISN.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli CHF110,600.00, +6,800.00) -- prelim FY sales
+5.8% IQE.LN (IQE £0.20, +0.01) -- FY trading update; appoints new CFO
+5.2% CRN.LN (Cairn Homes £1.21, +0.06) -- FY trading update
+4.8% QQ.LN (QinetiQ Group £3.34, +0.15) -- Q3 trading update; launches £100M share buyback programme
+4.1% KWS.LN (Keywords Studios £15.47, +0.61) -- initiated overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald
+2.6% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF73.75, +1.85) -- prelim Q4 revenue
+2.3% EXPN.LN (Experian £31.98, +0.72) -- Q3 trading update
+2.1% ULTI.NO (Ultimovacs NOK138.20, +2.80) -- study update
+1.9% EKTA.B.SS (Elekta SEK80.08, +1.52) -- reinitiated buy at Danske Bank
+1.4% SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding CHF14.85, +0.20) -- Baader Helvea upgrade
+1.2% PSN.LN (Persimmon £14.69, +0.18) -- Jefferies upgrade
+1.2% GRF.SM (Grifols €9.00, +0.11) -- Grifols requests the CNMV to bring forward its 2023 earnings - El Confidencial
Notable Decliners
-10.9% MCB.LN (McBride £0.80, -0.10) -- H1 trading update
-10.4% CARD.LN (Card Factory £0.97, -0.11) -- FY trading statement
-7.8% SRAIL.SW (Stadler Rail CHF27.68, -2.34) -- UBS downgrade
-7.7% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €20.73, -1.72) -- initiated neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald
-4.8% EQLS.LN (Equals Group £1.14, -0.06) -- pre close trading update
-3.1% AT1.GR (Aroundtown €2.16, -0.07) -- Societe Generale downgrade
-2.7% DNB.NO (DNB Bank NOK210.20, -5.80) -- Nordea downgrade
-2.7% AF.FP (Air France-KLM €11.70, -0.33) -- to terminate existing agreements on 31-Mar-24 with CMA CGM
-2.5% ABN.NA (ABN AMRO Bank €13.21, -0.33) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-2.4% DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech €226.10, -5.50) -- assumed equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
-2.1% GYC.GR (Grand City Properties €9.41, -0.21) -- Societe Generale downgrade
-2.0% VBK.GR (Verbio €20.80, -0.43) -- lowers FY guidance
-2.0% SAB.SM (Banco de Sabadell €1.13, -0.02) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-1.7% SRT3.GR (Sartorius €303.50, -5.10) -- assumed equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
-1.5% WRT1V.FH (Wartsila €13.35, -0.21) -- Citi downgrade
-1.5% PDL.LN (Petra Diamonds £0.64, -0.01) -- H1 operating update
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: BRAIN Biotech (BNN.GR)
Nordics: MAG Interactive (MAGI.SS)
UK: Frontier Developments (FDEV.LN), Oxford BioDynamics (OBD.LN), Gateley (Holdings) (GTLY.LN)
Trading Update: Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY.NA), Brooks MacDonald (BRK.LN), Geberit (GEBN.SW), Antofagasta (ANTO.LN), Ibstock (IBST.LN), Kier Group (KIE.LN), Virbac (VIRP.FP)
Data:
Economics:
Ireland Dec CPI +4.6% y/y vs consensus +4.3% and prior +3.9%
Germany
Jan ZEW
Economic Sentiment Indicator 15.2 vs consensus 12.0 and prior 12.8
Current Situation (77.3) vs consensus (77.0) and prior (77.1)
Dec CPI y/y +3.7% vs consensus +3.7% and prior +3.7%
Italy Dec CPI y/y +0.6% vs prior +0.6%
UK
Dec Claimant Count Change 11.7K vs consensus +18.1K and prior revised+0.6K from +16.0K
Nov ILO Unemployment Rate +4.2% vs consensus 4.3% and prior 4.2%
Markets:
WTI Crude (24-Feb): ($0.42) or (0.58%) to $72.26
€-$ (0.0070) or (0.64%) to 1.0883
£-$ (0.0066) or (0.52%) to 1.2661
€-£ (0.0012) to 0.8594
S&P 500 (0.14%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: (2.26%)
DAX: (1.07%)
CAC: (1.92%)
MIB: (0.12%)
Stoxx 600: (1.24%)
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