Jan 16 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open mostly lower amidst Asian equities trading lower on Tuesday. US futures sharply down.
Markets remain sensitive to central bank policy outlook. Spate of hawkish remarks from ECB officials weighs on equity market sentiment and has contributed to a backup in bond yields. Of note, ECB's Holzmann suggested Monday rate cuts this year were not guaranteed but Nagel said maybe after the summer. While central bank officials continue to push back on rate cut pricing, market is still pricing in at least 125 bps worth of easing. No change in Fed rate cut pricing with at least six rate moves seen this year.
Today's agenda sees the ECOFIN meeting, LSE IDEAS, hosting an event at 15:00GMT titled Russia-Ukraine dialogues: taking the pulse and Court of cassation rules in Holcim's (HOLN.SW) Syria case. In the UK, there are MP questions on energy security and net zero at 11:30GMT, with committee topics including long-duration energy storage at 10:00 and Westminster eForum policy conf title Priorities and next steps for the UK drone industry. Norway's Industry Minister Vestre travels to Paris to sign a green industrial partnership.
In central banks, ECB's de Guindos is among the participants. BOE's Bailey regular evidence sessions are at 15:00, Bundesbank's Nagel panellist is at 12:10CET at N-TV/RTL live discussion.
European macro data releases out today include Germany's Jan ZEW survey, Dec final CPI, UK Dec claimant count, Nov unemployment rate, Italy's Dec final CPI, Eurozone Nov consumer inflation expectations, and Ireland's Dec CPI.
On the corporate front, DACHs names kicked off the session with Lindt & Spruengli (LISN.SW), Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR) and DocMorris (DOCM.SW) reporting preliminary FY/Q4 sales/revenue, with the latter confirming its FY23 and FY24 guidance. In the UK, Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) reported Q4 Production and reiterated its FY24 production guidance.
In M&A, the London Times reported that Frasers Group (FRAS.LN) is considering putting in an offer for the Meadowhall shopping centre. A source with knowledge of the process tells the Times that "a handful of parties" have indicated interest in the site, which the article reminds readers that British Land (BLND.LN) and Norges Bank are reportedly seeking £750M for. In Italy, Milan's mayor, Giuseppe Sala, tells Sole24Ore that the Municipality of Milan is open to a possible reduction of its stake in A2A. Sole24Ore recalls that the Municipalities of Milano and Brescia hold an equal share of 25% plus one share each.
Politics/Macro/World News
Iowa caucuses: What Trump's dominant win means for his rivals - BBC
Ships Keep Running Red Sea Gauntlet After US Warnings - Bloomberg
Europe's Cargo Delays Seen Short-Lived as Supply Networks Adjust - Bloomberg
Tory deputy chairmen rebel over Rwanda Bill - The Telegraph
UK could save £20bn a year with better governance, says head of spending watchdog - FT
Top company news
Earnings/updates
RIO.LN (Rio Tinto) -- reports Q4 Production; Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) 86.3Mt vs StreetAccount 86.7Mt
LISN.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli) -- reports prelim FY sales CHF5.20B vs consensus CHF5.17B; will meet its FY23 EBIT goal and guides FY24
DRW3.GR (Drägerwerk) -- reports preliminary FY EBIT ~€167M vs FactSet €142.4M
FRA.GR (Fraport) -- reports Dec Frankfurt Airport traffic statistics: passengers 4.6M, +15.2% y/y
FHZN.SW (Flughafen Zuerich) -- reports Dec traffic statistics
DOCM.SW (DocMorris) -- reports preliminary Q4 external revenue from cont. ops CHF280.5M vs FactSet CHF243M
NDX1.GR (Nordex) -- reports Q4 wind turbines orders 420 vs year-ago 386; total output of 2.5 GW vs year-ago 1.9 GW
BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss) -- reports preliminary Q4 EBIT €121M vs FactSet €128.7M
KCC.NO (Klaveness Combination Carriers) -- reports Q4 business update with preliminary TCS earnings
M&A
RIO.LN (Rio Tinto) -- JV enters sales agreement for its Lake MacLeod salt and gypsum operation to Leichhardt Industrials Group for $251M (A$375M)
LXS.GR (Lanxess) -- looking to sell polyurethane unit, could be valued at €500-600M - Handelsblatt, citing people familiar with the matter (15-Jan, 15:55 CET)
HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings) -- RBC targeting close date for proposed acquisition of HSBC Bank Canada on 28-Mar
AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- approached by unsolicited private buyers to gauge Anglo's interest in offloading its coal mines in Queensland, Australia -- Australian Financial Review
BLND.LN (British Land Co.) -- Frasers Group considering putting in offer for Meadowhall shopping centre - London Times
IPS.FP (Ipsos) -- acquires Jarmany (terms undisclosed)
BPE.IM (BPER Banca) -- and Gardant Group finalise strategic partnership agreement for non-performing loans held by and Banco di Sardegna
LATO.B.SS (Latour Investment) -- acquires 51% of the shares in Eelectron S.P.A; terms undisclosed
MTU.FP (Manitou BF) -- finalizes acquisition of 75% majority stake in Italian companies COME S.R.L and Metal Work S.R.L
FNM.IM (FNM) -- agrees to acquire 80% of Viridis Energia S.p.A. for a total of €59.2M (post EU close 15-Jan)
DCN.SW (Datacolor) -- notes SER approval of application to delist shares in relation to Werner Dubach tender offer
A2A.IM (A2A) -- Municipality of Milan open to a possible reduction of its stake in A2A -- Milan's mayor Giuseppe Sala tells Sole24Ore
Panmure Gordon and Liberum to announce merger on Tuesday - Sky News
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- European Commission approves Roche's Tecentriq SC, the EU's first PD-(L)1 cancer immunotherapy subcutaneous injection for multiple cancer types
BIM.FP (bioMerieux) -- names new Chief Medical Officer and EVP Research and Development
AB.FP (AB Science) -- receives notice of allowance for European patent covering Masitinib until 2036 in the treatment of mastocytosis
Other
CCH.LN (Coca-Cola HBC) -- announces CFO Ben Almanzar stepping down to pursue a new role in N. America
INPST.NA (InPost) -- announces CFO Adam Aleksandrowicz to step down; appoints Javier van Engelen as new CFO effective 2-Apr-24
DEC.FP (JCDecaux) -- wins renewal of the exclusive advertising contracts for Hong Kong MTR and Airport Express
SPM.IM (Saipem) -- launches 29.5M-share buyback programme
DOC.AV (DO & CO) -- bondholder converts €3M of convertible bonds into shares; 37.5K new shares to be issued
TRST.LN (Trustpilot Group) -- Holder Northzone has indicated its intention to sell its remaining position of 5.2M existing ordinary shares in Trustpilot Group plc
Key rating changes
Upgrades
PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
SAX.GR (Ströer) -- to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
ONT.LN (Oxford Nanopore Technologies) -- to reduce from sell at Peel Hunt
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- to Buy from Add at Baader Helvea
PSN.LN (Persimmon) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
Downgrades
RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings) -- to sell from hold at Berenberg
RMV.LN (Rightmove) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
TW.LN (Taylor Wimpey) -- to hold from add at Peel Hunt
MONY.LN (Moneysupermarket.com Group) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
PAGE.LN (PageGroup) -- to hold from buy at Investec (15-Jan; 11:56 GMT)
ALSN.SW (ALSO Holding) -- to Add from Buy at Baader Helvea
BLV.FP (Believe) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
SCHA.NO (Schibsted) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
HFG.GR (HelloFresh) -- to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs
ITV.LN (ITV) -- to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs
CRST.LN (Crest Nicholson Holdings) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
Initiations
EKTA.B.SS (Elekta) -- re buy at Danske Bank
PFD.LN (Premier Foods) -- outperform at RBC Capital Markets
Other Actions
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- assumed neutral at UBS
Data
Nikkei (0.79%) to 35619.18
Hang Seng (2.13%) to 15871.15
Shanghai Composite (0.24%) to 2879.35
S&P futures (20.3) vs prior close of 4816.5
€-$ (0.0032) or (0.29%) to 1.0921
$-¥ +0.33 or +0.23% to 146.08
€-¥ (0.08) or (0.05%) to 159.53
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