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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.40%), Hang Seng (3.71%), Shanghai Composite (2.09%) as of 03:10 ET

Jan 17 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended sharply lower across the region Wednesday. Hang Seng added to losses from Tuesday to close almost 4% down, mainland bourses also steeply lower after more disappointing China economic data. Kospi also dragged lower by China data with electronics and tech underperforming. All other Asia markets sold off steeply, India nearly 2% lower in early afternoon trade. US futures down, Europe sharply lower in early trades. US dollar flat but Asia currencies under more pressure with cyclicals down the most and many at multi-month lows. Treasury yields mostly higher, Several Asia 10Y yields scaling one-month or longer highs. Crude blends lower on reports Red Sea problems not affecting supply. Precious metals down on renewed dollar strength, industrial metals weaker. Cryptocurrencies lower.

    • Hang Seng down for third consecutive session this week to be 6.0% lower WTD already; tech index down 9.0%, mainland property index down almost 10%. Deteriorating sentiment in Chinese markets set off Monday by disappointment over unchanged MLF rate, accelerated yesterday with Beijing's plea to fund managers to stop selling stocks, and sharply lower today on more poor economic data. GDP and activity data today showed larger-than-expected fall in retail sales and rise in unemployment; home prices also declined while real estate investment, sales and construction starts all deteriorated further. Q4 GDP growth a smidge below expectations. Separate data out Wednesday showed China's population declined for a second year running in 2023, adding to Beijing's economic planning problems. News late yesterday Beijing was considering CNY1T ($139B) in special bonds greeted with skepticism.

    • In other macro developments, Reuters Tankan showed Japan manufacturer sentiment fell for the first time in three months amid concerns about China and global macro outlook. Singapore non-oil exports fell back into contraction. Bank Indonesia kept its base rates steady as expected. Thailand's government forced to postpone its 'digital wallet' stimulus programme.

    • Orix (8591.JP) said to be in negotiations to buy European and US renewable energy developers. Nippon Yusen (NYK) (9101.JP) said it is joining other major shippers in suspending routes through the Red Sea. Fujitsu (6702.JP) official admits company has moral obligation to compensate UK Post Office workers that fell victim to a Fujitsu-developed software. Adani Enterprises (512599.IN) has bought a further 25.5% stake in media group IANS.

  • Digest:

    • China GDP growth close to expectations, activity data more mixed:

      • GDP grew 5.2% y/y in Q4, close to consensus 5.3% and follows 4.9% in the previous quarter. Sequential growth of 1.0% q/q matched expectations, slowing marginally from 1.3% in Q3. Left 2023 aggregate up 5.2%, also in line, following 3.0% growth in 2022. Also meets government growth target of 'about 5%.' Monthly activity data were mixed. Industrial production rose 6.8% y/y just above consensus 6.7% and 6.6% in the prior month. Autos (including EVs), solar cells, smartphones and integrated circuits all logged double-digit growth. Q4 capacity utilization was 75.9%, up from 75.6% in Q3 and 75.7% a year earlier. Retail sales disappointed at 7.4% y/y vs consensus 8.0% and prior month's 10.1%. Support came from sharp growth in catering, apparel and gold & silver jewelry. Housing materials among the few decliners. Fixed asset investment expanded 3.0% for the year vs consensus and prior month's 2.9% over Jan-Nov. Infrastructure growth slowed to 5.9% from 5.8%, but real estate declines worsened to 9.6% from 9.4%. Housing sales deteriorated further while construction starts remained in deep contraction. Unemployment rate edged up to 5.1% vs consensus and prior month's 5.0%.

    • China new home prices fall at steepest pace in almost nice years:

      • New home prices in China fell for sixth straight month in December, dropping 0.4% m/m after 0.3% dip in November, also fastest drop since Feb-15, based on Reuters calculation of NBS data. Prices also fell 0.4% y/y, compared with 0.2% decline in November. Second-hand market also saw cross-the-board declines with all 70 cities seeing on-month drops and 69 cities logging on-year declines. Bloomberg noted China's prolonged property downturn has been major drag on economy, exerting pressure on builders that struggle to repay debts and complete projects. Market experts noted overall demand remains sluggish while residents reluctant to add leverage amid shaky confidence in income prospects. Noted authorities have signaled stronger support as Bloomberg reported Ping An Bank has put 41 developers on funding support list and central government has asked local authorities to co-ordinate and offer more targeted support for reasonable financing needs of developers (Bloomberg).

    • China's population fell by more than 2M in 2023 as birth rate reaches record low:

      • China's population fell for second consecutive year in 2023, shrinking 2.08M to 1.41B as deaths again outnumbered births. Total deaths reached 11.1M versus 10.4M in 2022 as Covid wave struck in Q1; Beijing never revealed total Covid-related deaths but independent research estimated excess deaths to be 1.9M (Bloomberg). Total births fell to record low 9.02M from 9.56M, continuing long-term trend started in 1960s. Overall population decline was at faster pace than in 2022. Demographers long forecasted declining China population however accelerated pace will alarm Beijing as it affects long-term growth rates. Headwinds for arresting declines include increased urbanization, high youth unemployment, contracting white collar wages, property crisis, all of which require long-term planning (Reuters). National Bureau of Statistics data comes day after Beijing launched 'silver economy' initiative to help cope with quickly aging population (Xinhua).

    • Bank Indonesia holds base rate steady as it eyes rupiah stabilization:

      • Bank Indonesia (BI) held its 7D reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.0% Wednesday in widely expected move as bank's focus shifts from inflation fight to stabilizing currency. Overnight deposit, lending facility rates also kept steady. Third consecutive meeting bank held rates to ensure inflation stays within target range while encouraging growth. FY 2024 GDP growth forecasts maintained at 4.7-5.0%, with growth support coming from election spending, government projects. December inflation declined further to 2.6% y/y, within FY 2024 1.5-3.5% target range but bank remains concerned over food prices. Governor Perry said last month could be room for easing policy if rupiah strengthens further and inflation stays low however currency been under pressure YTD on fading Fed rate cut hopes, analysts now see no BI cut until at least Q3 when Fed could be well into rate cut cycle.

    • Singapore exports down in December, dragged by continued decline in electronics shipments:

      • Singapore's December non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 1.5% y/y, reversing from growth of 1% in prior month and in contrast to consensus 3.3% growth. Dragged by continued decline of 11.7% y/y in electronics exports, which fell for 17th consecutive month, though slight improvement from 12.8% fall in November. PC, integrated circuits and parts of PCs contributed most to decline. Meanwhile, non-electronics shipments grew 1.4% y/y in December, extending November's 5.2% increase, with pharmaceuticals, non-monetary gold contributing most. Shipments to Taiwan, South Korea and Japan fell, whereas exports to US, EU, Hong Kong and China rose. On seasonally-adjusted basis, NODX shrank 2.8% m/m versus consensus 1.5% decline, and 0.3% gain in December (BusinessTimes). Recall Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said earlier that Singapore's economic outlook for 2024 will depend much on external environment. Economists noted gradual rebound in China's economy will have positive spillovers on Singapore's exports, adding country's exports of electronic components to China should recover on improving demand as those do not fall within scope of China's self-sufficiency drive and unlikely to be caught up in US-China tensions (StraitsTimes)

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +4.3% 5801.JP (Furukawa Electric Co.): FY net income reportedly may slightly exceed guidance

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -12.1% 2013.HK (Weimob): seeks backdoor listing of Shanghai Weimob Culture Media in mainland China

      • -7.2% 500180.IN (HDFC Bank): reports Q3 standalone EPS INR21.49 vs StreetAccount INR20.65; reportedly to initiate IPO process of HDB Financial Services in few months

      • -4.1% 6702.JP (Fujitsu): Fujitsu Europe head reportedly tells inquiry company has moral obligation to compensate Post Office victims

      • -0.9% 034220.KS (LG Display): reports FY operating profit (KRW2.510T) vs FactSet (KRW2.595T), revenue KRW21.331T vs FactSet KRW20.792T

      • -0.8% 8591.JP (ORIX): reportedly in discussions to acquire renewable energy developers in US, Europe

      • -0.4% 9101.JP (Nippon Yusen): Japan's three top shippers reportedly suspend vessel transits in Red Sea

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China

        • Q4 GDP +5.2% y/y vs consensus +5.3% and +4.9% in prior quarter

          • Q4 GDP +1.0% q/q vs consensus +1.0% and +1.3% in prior quarter

          • 2023 GDP +5.2% vs consensus +5.2% and +3.0% in prior year

        • December industrial production +6.8% y/y vs consensus +6.7% and +6.6% in prior month

          • Retail sales +7.4% y/y vs consensus +8.0% and +10.1% in prior month

          • Fixed asset investment (YTD) +3.0% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and +2.9% in prior month

          • Unemployment rate 5.2% vs consensus 5.0% and 5.0% in prior month

        • December new house prices (0.4%) m/m vs (0.3%) in prior month

      • Japan January Reuters Tankan manufacturers' sentiment index +6 vs +12 in prior month

        • Service sector index +29 vs +26 in prior month

      • Singapore

        • December non-oil exports (1.5% y/y) vs consensus 3.3% and 1% in prior month

          • Non-oil exports (2.8%m/m) vs consensus (1.5%) and 0.3% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (141.43) or (0.40%) to 35477.75

      • Hang Seng: (589.02) or (3.71%) to 15276.90

      • Shanghai Composite: (60.37) or (2.09%) to 2833.62

      • Shenzhen Composite: (44.33) or (2.54%) to 1698.70

      • ASX200: (21.70) or (0.29%) to 7393.10

      • KOSPI: (61.69) or (2.47%) to 2435.90

      • SENSEX: (1,404.80) or (1.92%) to 71723.97

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.68 or +0.46% to 147.8620

      • $-KRW: +4.70 or +0.35% to 1343.6100

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.58%) to 0.6548

      • $-INR: +0.04 or +0.04% to 83.0850

      • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.16%) to 7.1598

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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