Jan 18 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher. France +1.1%, the Netherlands +0.9% and Greece +0.7% lead outperformers, whilst Finland (0.2%), Belgium and Denmark (0.1%) buck the higher trend and lead underperformers.
No change in broader market sentiment. Dialing back in market rate expectations and backup in yields continues to influence. Geopolitical risk remains a background concerns, particularly the impact of Middle East tensions on supply chains and inflation outlook. ECB officials continues to pushback against rate cut expectations, as officials coalesce around the likelihood of summer policy easing. Strategists remain positive of European equity market outlook, though it is contingent on ECB easing and soft landing for economy. Also still some cushion from favorable combination of Fed pivot and heightened expectations US economy will avoid a recession.
Quiet macro calendar. UK RICS survey supports expectations of stabilization in housing market. BoE credit conditions due. ECB to published minutes of Dec meeting. European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Dec new passenger car registrations for the EU + EFTA + UK (3.8%) y/y.
Notable reporters today include Richemont (CFR.SW) with Q3 sales c.FX growth +8% vs consensus +6.5% whilst Watches of Switzerland Group (WOSG.LN) issued a profit warning revising FY24 revenue expectations to £1.53 - 1.55B vs prior guidance for £1.65-1.70B. Also on the reporting front, Dunelm Group (DNLM.LN), Kier Group (KIE.LN), Energean (ENOG.LN), Centamin (CEY.LN) and Curry's (CURY.LN).
In M&A news, BASF (BAS.GR) is encountering political resistance in Germany with its planned sale of Winterhall Dea to Harbour Energy and UniCredit (UCG.IM) trying to build a 10% stake to defend Banca Popolare di Sondrio (BPSO.IM). Also in Italy, Bloomberg reported that the Italian government plans to sell €2B stake in Eni (ENI.IM) to reduce its debt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 15-Jan to 19-Jan attached) TF Bank (TFBANK.SS), Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Investor (INVE.B.SS), Deliveroo (ROO.LN), SFS Group (SFSN.SW), Zehnder Group (ZEHN.SW), Beter Bed (BBED.NA) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Dec PPI, UK Dec retail sales, Switzerland Dec PPI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Travel & Leisure +5.17%, Technology +2.89%, Consumer Products and Services +2.08%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.97%, Media +0.86%, Basic Resources +0.80%, Construct & Mtls +0.73%, Banks +0.68%, Financial Svcs +0.67%, Chemicals +0.57%,
Underperformers:
Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (1.11%), Utilities (0.69%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.59%), Health Care (0.33%), Real Estate (0.20%), Energy(0.12%), Telecom (0.04%), Insurance +0.21%, Retail +0.38%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Ukraine diplomat says talks under way on UN-brokered grain deal - Reuters
Iran summons Pakistan envoy after nine killed in retaliatory strikes - BBC
NATO begins manoeuvres with 90,000 troops to deter Russia - Handelsblatt
EU
UK
Italy
FSB warns Italy against overhaul of bad loans market - FT
Greece
Bad private dues outsize GDP - ekathimerini
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+38.5% CWR.LN (Ceres Power Holdings £2.08, +0.58) -- Delta Electronics signs agreement with Ceres to license and transfer technology for £43M (NT$1.72B)
+19.3% YOYO.DC (OrderYOYO DKK8.30, +1.34) -- prelim FY earnings; raises FY guidance
+17.3% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo £0.85, +0.13) -- declares interim dividend
+15.5% FLTR.LN (Flutter Entertainment £152.65, +20.50) -- Q4 revenue
+10.8% CFR.SW (Richemont CHF116.80, +11.40) -- Q3 sales
+10.5% CURY.LN (Currys £0.50, +0.05) -- trading update
+7.5% KINV.B.SS (Kinnevik SEK102.70, +7.18) -- SEB upgrade
+6.9% TKWY.NA (Just Eat Takeaway.com €13.66, +0.88) -- BofA upgrade
+6.8% ALGBE.FP (Global Bioenergies €1.95, +0.12) -- new development contract with Shell
+6.5% ELM.LN (Elementis £1.25, +0.08) -- trading update
+6.2% TPK.LN (Travis Perkins £7.86, +0.46) -- trading update
+5.9% AJB.LN (AJ Bell £3.15, +0.17) -- trading
+5.7% FYB.GR (Formycon €48.75, +2.65) -- new sales figures for CIMERLI in the US
+5.7% BAKK.LN (Bakkavor Group £0.96, +0.05) -- trading update
+5.6% SMS.LN (Smart Metering Systems £9.51, +0.50) -- switch to takeover offer and final cash offer
+4.5% KIND.SS (Kindred Group SEK105.50, +4.55) -- BofA upgrade
+4.1% MAHA.A.SS (Maha Energy SEK10.00, +0.39) -- acquires 5% of 3R petroleum for ~$69M
+3.5% DEC.FP (JCDecaux €18.00, +0.61) -- BofA upgrade
+3.1% MOWI.NO (Mowi NOK188.55, +5.70) -- Q4 harvest
+2.8% BPSO.IM (Banca Popolare di Sondrio €6.17, +0.17) -- UniCredit trying to build a 10% stake to defend Banca Popolare di Sondrio -- Sole24Ore
+2.7% DAN.IM (Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche €30.90, +0.80) -- MoU with Metinvest
+2.7% D6H.GR (Datagroup €54.00, +1.40) -- final FY earnings
+2.5% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK385.10, +9.30) -- takes final investment decision on Farranrory Onshore Wind Farm in Ireland
+2.1% ZTF.LN (Zotefoams £3.45, +0.07) -- FY revenue
+2.0% MTX.GR (MTU Aero Engines €211.10, +4.20) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
Trading Lower:
-41.4% BGO.LN (Bango £1.07, -0.76) -- FY revenue
-36.6% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £3.73, -2.15) -- trading update; lowers FY guidance
-10.7% CAMX.SS (Camurus SEK523.00, -62.50) -- completes directed share issue raising SEK1.09B at SEK545/sh; prelim FY revenue
-10.7% WRKS.LN (TheWorks.co.uk £0.24, -0.03) -- H1 earnings
-9.3% CLTN.SW (Coltene Holding CHF60.40, -6.20) -- prelim FY revenue
-8.5% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £2.89, -0.27) -- prelim FY revenue
-6.7% CAU.LN (Centaur Media £0.42, -0.03) -- trading update
-6.2% CLA.B.SS (Cloetta SEK17.53, -1.15) -- Nordea downgrade
-5.4% CGCBV.FH (Cargotec €50.05, -2.85) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-5.3% EMBRAC.B.SS (Embracer Group SEK20.77, -1.17) -- BofA downgrade
-4.1% NIOX.LN (NIOX Group £0.60, -0.03) -- FY revenue
-3.7% ESSITY.B.SS (Essity SEK250.60, -9.50) -- Barclays downgrade
-3.1% BMAX.SS (Byggmax Group SEK36.42, -1.16) -- SEB downgrade
-3.0% ICAD.FP (Icade €32.64, -1.00) -- BofA downgrade
-3.0% GRF.SM (Grifols €8.36, -0.26) -- ECB has reportedly asked various banks to disclose their financial exposure to Grifols, in wake of Gotham City Research short report - Reuters
-2.9% TMV.GR (TeamViewer €13.12, -0.39) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
-2.9% ETTE.FH (Etteplan €13.50, -0.40) -- prelim FY earnings
-2.7% ALPH.LN (Alpha Group International £16.25, -0.45) -- FY revenue
-2.6% SECARE.SS (Swedencare SEK63.44, -1.70) -- Handelsbanken downgrade
-2.5% BYG.LN (Big Yellow Group £10.78, -0.28) -- BofA downgrade
-2.3% LTMC.IM (Lottomatica Group €10.20, -0.24) -- holder Gamma Intermediate places 16M shares at €9.5/share
-1.7% CPR.IM (Davide Campari-Milano €9.09, -0.15) -- RBC Capital Markets downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: TF Bank (TFBANK.SS), Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Investor (INVE.B.SS)
Trading Update: deliveroo (ROO.LN), SFS Group (SFSN.SW), Zehnder Group (ZEHN.SW), Beter Bed (BBED.NA)
Data:
Economics:
Portugal Dec PPI (4.4%) y/y vs consensus (5.5%) and prior revised to (6.1%) from (6.2%)
Eurozone Nov Construction Output (1.0%) y/y vs prior revised (0.6%) from (0.7%)
Spain Nov Trade Balance (€2.4B) vs consensus (€4.7B) and prior (€5.1B)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Feb 24): +$1.16 or +1.60% to $73.72
€-$ (0.0017) or (0.16%) to 1.0868
£-$ +0.0014 or +0.11% to 1.2690
€-£ (0.0019) to 0.8566
S&P 500 +0.56%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: (3.55%)
DAX: (1.10%)
CAC: (1.88%)
MIB: (0.01%)
Stoxx 600: (1.78%)
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