Jan 22 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher. Technology and industrial goods & services the best performers; basic resources and utilities amidst worst-performers. US equity markets firmer at this time. Treasuries firmer with some curve flattening following a big backup in yields last week. Bund 5 bps lower at 2.25%. Gilts down 1 bp at 3.91%. Dollar index down 0.1%, flat vs euro but weaker against yen and sterling. Gold off 0.2%. Bitcoin futures down 2.4%. WTI crude up 2.1%.
There were no macro data releases or central bank speakers scheduled for today. Of note, Eurozone Jan Flash Consumer Confidence is due to be published tomorrow. Markets have dialed back central bank rate cut expectations. ECB officials vocal into this week's ECB meeting, which is likely to be uneventful; a Reuters poll of 85 analysts show almost half expect the first ECB cut in June, but these is still an 80% risk for April. BoE rate cut pricing dipped amid firmer-than-expected UK inflation data; poll shows close call for BoE to start cutting borrowing costs Q2 or Q3. Against this backdrop, bond yields have moved higher, while rate-sensitive and speculative pockets have underperformed. Leading UK economic forecaster EY Item Club said the UK economy will benefit from falling inflation and low interest rates in H2 of the year, which will boost growth and enable the government to offer pre-election giveaways.
Light earnings releases today; of note, out of DACHs, Autoneum (AUTN.SW), Hypoport (HYQ.GR), BELIMO (BEAN.SW) update investors; TRATON (8TRA.GR) released FY Group unit sales +11% y/y. In the UK, S4 Capital (SFOR.LN), Trifast (TRI.LN) provide latest trading updates; further out of the UK, Benchmark Holdings (BMK.lN) is to undertake a formal review of the company's strategic options. Out of the Nordics, Ratos (RATO.B.SS) and (MTRS.SS) published their respective earnings updates. In other corporate developments, Societe Generale (GLE.FP) reportedly plans to cut more than 500 Jobs in France to to trim costs whilst Tietoevry (TIETO.FH) updated on ransomware attack.
M&A headlines in the spotlight: La Française des Jeux (FDJ.FP) offered to acquire Kindred Group (KIND.SS) for SEK130/sh in cash, in a deal worth €2.6B (EV basis). Further out of France, Crédit Agricole (ACA.FP) acquired a 7% stake in Worldline (WLP.FP) and - in Italy - the govt is considering selling a 10-20% stake in Poste Italiane (PST.IM). Elsewhere, Sandoz Group (SDZ.SW) acquired CIMERLI business from Coherus for $170M and Compass Group (CPG.LN) confirmed the acquisition of CH&CO for £475M (EV basis).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology +2.02%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.40%, Insurance +1.33%, Banks +1.32%, Real Estate +1.25%, Financial Svcs +1.21%, Retail +1.20%, Construct & Mtls +1.03%, Media +0.97%
Underperformers:
Basic Resources (0.91%), Utilities (0.30%), Oil & Gas(0.09%), Chemicals +0.05%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.08%, Autos & Parts +0.14%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.16%, Consumer Products and Services +0.52%, Health Care +0.54%, Telecom +0.63%
Macro:
ECB:
UK:
BoE may start cutting interest rates in Q2 as inflation eases: Reuters poll
BoE facing growth calls to drop language on hikes: Bloomberg
Planned UK redundancies soar amid cost cutting: The London Times
Leading forecaster expects UK growth rebound in late 2024: EY Item Club
Title/list each macro topic separately
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Greece:
Greece seeks to raise €625M in T-bills: Kathimerini
Poland:
Poland and Ukraine pledge quick end to political friction: Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+16.5% KIND.SS (Kindred Group SEK121.75, +17.25) -- prelim Q4 earnings; all-cash offer at SEK130/sh by La Française des Jeux
+5.5% FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux €36.26, +1.90) -- all-cash offer at SEK130/share for Kindred
+15.1% BMK.LN (Benchmark Holdings £0.40, +0.05) -- review of strategic options
+10.9% RKH.LN (Rockhopper Exploration £0.11, +0.01) -- Sea Lion update
+10.1% PROT.NO (Protector Forsikring NOK195.60, +18.00) -- prelim Q4 earnings
+8.9% BRCK.LN (Brickability Group £0.61, +0.05) -- completes acquisition of Topek Southern Limited
+8.5% BWO.NO (BW Offshore NOK24.66, +1.94) -- to sell its 22.52% stake in BW Energy Limited to BW Group Limited for NOK 1.86B or ~$176M
+2.9% BWE.NO (BW Energy NOK28.15, +0.80)
+7.8% CLIG.LN (City of London Investment Group £3.45, +0.25) -- 6M trading update
+7.7% HYQ.GR (Hypoport €179.00, +12.80) -- Q4 business update
+7.3% TRE.SM (Tecnicas Reunidas €8.04, +0.55) -- two contracts by Saudi Aramco worth $2.15B
+6.9% BOY.LN (Bodycote £6.37, +0.41) -- completes acquisiton of Lake City HT for $66.5M; announces £60M share buyback programme
+5.4% AUTN.SW (Autoneum Holding CHF128.40, +6.60) -- prelim FY revenue
+5.3% WBD.IM (Webuild €2.01, +0.10) -- JV construction contract worth €0.7-1.3B
+5.3% ABVX.FP (Abivax €10.80, +0.54) -- 2024 strategic outlook
+4.8% NKR.NO (Nekkar NOK10.00, +0.46) -- $24M ship lift project award
+3.1% RATO.B.SS (Ratos SEK31.94, +0.96) -- prelim Q4 earnings
+2.9% ELTEL.SS (Eltel SEK7.18, +0.20) -- TDC agreement extension worth €23M
+2.8% ALMB.DC (Alm. Brand DKK12.15, +0.33) -- prelim FY earnings
+2.3% PEN.NO (Panoro Energy NOK26.48, +0.60) -- Block G infill drilling campaign in Equatorial Guinea
+1.3% AMP.IM (Amplifon €29.69, +0.37) -- acquisition of one of Miracle-Ear franchisee in the U.S
+0.9% WLN.FP (Worldline €13.24, +0.12) -- 7% minority stake acquired by Crédit Agricole S.A
+0.5% ACA.FP (Crédit Agricole S.A.)
+0.7% MTRS.SS (Munters Group SEK156.40, +1.10) -- Q4 earnings
Notable Decliners
-73.5% XBRANE.SS (Xbrane Biopharma SEK2.05, -5.68) -- SEK 343M rights issue of units
-19.4% TRI.LN (Trifast £0.75, -0.18) -- lowers FY guidance
-7.7% SFOR.LN (S4 Capital £0.37, -0.03) -- Q4 trading update
-7.7% BEAN.SW (BELIMO Holding CHF400.00, -33.60) -- FY sales
-6.3% DPT.FP (ST Dupont €0.09, -0.01) -- €25M capital increase
-5.1% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.07, -0.00) -- Cascabel project update
-3.9% NDA.GR (Aurubis €63.72, -2.62) -- confirms supervisory board in well advanced discussions with three members of Executive board regarding termination of their offices
-1.9% APTD.LN (Aptitude Software Group £3.04, -0.06) -- FY trading update
-1.8% TIETO.FH (Tietoevry €20.84, -0.38) -- ransomware attack update
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Nordics: LM Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS), Alleima (ALLEI.SS), VNV Global (VNV.SS), Topdanmark (TOP.DC), Gigante Salmon (GIGA.NO)
UK: Crest Nicholson (CRST.LN), Watkin Jones (WJG.LN), Ilika (IKA.LN)
Trading Update: Associated British Foods (ABF.LN), Henry Boot (BOOT.LN), Premier Foods (PFD.LN), Staffline (STAF.LN), HUBER+SUHNER (HUBN.SW), Compagnie des Alpes (CDA.FP), Nacon (NACON.FP), Pierre & Vacances (VAC.FP), Sidetrade (ALBFR.FP)
CMD/events: Public Power Corp (PPC.GA)
Data:
Economics:
No releases
Markets:
WTI Crude (Feb 24): +$1.71 or +2.33% to $75.12
€-$ (0.0003) or (0.03%) to 1.0890
£-$ +0.0021 or +0.16% to 1.2719
€-£ (0.0016) to 0.8563
S&P 500 +0.33%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (3.18%)
DAX: (0.41%)
CAC: (1.72%)
MIB: (0.56%)
Stoxx 600: (1.28%)
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