Jan 23 ,2024
Synopsis:
European indices ended mostly mixed to lower Tuesday. Spain outsized laggard whilst Netherlands buck the trend. Real Estate, constructions and health care the worst performing sectors, while Basic Resources and Auto/Parts the main outperformers.
No big directional drivers in play as market waits for a ramp in earnings activity and further signs of disinflation traction with US core PCE inflation at the end of the week.
More UK press reports on potential for tax cuts in March budget. Chancellor Hunt revealed Treasury officials provided him with clear proof countries with lower tax burdens have higher economic growth, which appears to be at odds with analysis provided to Sunak when he became prime minister. Press cites remarks by former IMF chief economist Rogoff, who said interest rates will not return to pre-Covid levels as governments increase spending on defense and climate change.
On a light macro-calendar, Flash Eurozone consumer confidence weaker than expected (16.1) vs consensus (14.3) and prior revised (15.1) from (15.0).
On the reporting front, out of DACHs, Swatch Group (UHR.SW), Logitech International (LOGN.SW) and HUBER+SUHNER (HUBN.SW) reported before the open whilst - in the UK - Associated British Foods (ABF.LN), boohoo (BOO.LN), Premier Foods (PFD.LN) and Marston's (MARS.LN) also updated investors. In the Nordics, LM Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS) released Q4/FY numbers, kept dividend unchanged and appointed a new CFO; Topdanmark (TOP.DC) missed Q4 net income and PBT. Elsewhere, ENGIE ( ENGI.FP), pre-released FY23, Sofina (SOF.BB) reported preliminary NAV per share.
In M&A, Sanofi (SAN.FP) acquired Inhibrx (INBX) for $30/sh up front (in a deal worth $2.2B(; Cellnex (CLNX.SM) might sell minority interest in the Polish business and FLSmidth & Co. (FLS.DC) sold MAAG gears and drives business to Solix.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Eurozone/ France/Germany/UK Jan flash manufacturing/services PMI, UK Jan industrial trends orders and Q1 business optimism index - CBI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Basic Resources +1.99%, Autos & Parts +0.83%, Oil & Gas +0.68%, Telecom +0.50%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.45%, Travel & Leisure +0.13%, Technology +0.05%, Retail (0.07%), Banks (0.10%)
Underperformers
Real Estate(1.33%), Construct & Mtls (0.87%), Health Care (0.88%), Utilities (0.83%), Insurance (0.71%), Media (0.63%), Food & Beverage (0.48%), Chemicals (0.45%), Financial Svcs (0.37%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.32%)
Macro:
ECB
UK
Sharp fall in UK government borrowing in December raises prospect of Budget tax cuts -- FT
Germany
Germany to miss coal phase-out target by eight years -- worldcoal
France
French farmers up pressure on government as protests spread across rural regions -- Reuters
Italy:
Italy looks to use G7 chair to boost support for Ukraine, scrutinise AI -- Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+15.3% IBU.GR (IBU-tec advanced materials €16.24, +2.16) -- enteres into research cooperation in battery sector with Lanxess
+12.0% HFG.GR (HelloFresh €12.58, +1.37) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+8.7% ALLFG.NA (Allfunds Group €0.00, +0.51) -- trades higher on unconfirmed market rumor SIX Group is looking to acquire the company
+7.7% TFI.FP (TF1 €8.04, +0.58) -- Oddo upgrade
+6.9% GHC.IM (Garofalo Health Care €4.69, +0.31) -- holder Peninsula Capital places 3.7M shares at €4.40/share
+6.9% ELCO.LN (Eleco £0.93, +0.06) -- FY trading update
+6.7% BOKU.LN (BOKU £1.67, +0.11) -- FY trading update
+5.9% NDX1.GR (Nordex €9.61, +0.53) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade
+4.9% SOFF.NO (Solstad Offshore NOK37.90, +1.76) -- contract
+4.7% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €3.03, +0.14) -- study update
+4.6% MVIR.SS (Medivir SEK2.97, +0.13) -- carries out a directed share issue of approx. SEK 20M; hosts conference call today on updated data from ongoing phase 1B/2a study in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma
+3.9% AOF.GR (ATOSS Software €239.00, +9.00) -- target increased at Berenberg
+3.5% TSTL.LN (Tristel £4.45, +0.15) -- Health Canada approves Tristel ULT as Class II Medical Device
+2.7% HPOL.B.SS (HEXPOL SEK116.50, +3.00) -- initiated buy at BofA
+2.6% BULTEN.SS (Bulten SEK75.50, +1.90) -- CEO steps down
+2.3% NET.LN (Netcall £0.91, +0.02) -- H1 earnings; acquires Skore Labs Limited
+2.0% NDA.GR (Aurubis €65.42, +1.30) -- supervisory board in well advanced discussions with three members of Executive board regarding termination of their offices
Notable Decliners
-48.8% ESKN.LN (Esken Ltd. £0.01, -0.00) -- subsidiary London Southend to investigate validity of alleged breaches on convertible loan from Carlyle
-12.7% WJG.LN (Watkin Jones £0.49, -0.07) -- FY earnings
-12.1% HAT.LN (H&T Group £3.44, -0.48) -- FY trading update
-9.3% BOOT.LN (Henry Boot £1.91, -0.20) -- FY trading update
-8.7% LOGN.SW (Logitech International CHF73.86, -7.18) -- Q3 earnings
-8.6% STAF.LN (Staffline Group £0.22, -0.02) -- FY trading update
-6.7% BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues €0.27, -0.02) -- Fosun International's subsidiary to sell 846.0M company shares at €0.278/share
-5.2% VNV.SS (VNV Global SEK16.20, -0.90) -- Q4 earnings
-4.6% UHR.SW (Swatch Group CHF202.90, -9.70) -- FY earnings
-3.9% ECV.GR (Encavis AG €12.71, -0.52) -- Stifel downgrade
-3.5% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK65.94, -2.44) -- SEK 11.5B asset sale to Cerberus
-3.0% TOP.DC (Topdanmark DKK296.40, -9.20) -- Q4 earnings
-2.2% PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding CHF1,108.50, -24.50) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: ASML Holding (ASML.NA)
DACHs: SAP (SAP.GR)
Nordics: Epiroc (EPI.A.SS), Swedbank (SWED.A.SS), Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF.NO)
UK: Hargreaves Services (HSP.LN)
Trading Update:
DACHs: Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW), Rieter Holding (RIEN.SW), Mikron Holding (MIKN.SW)
France: Alstom (ALO.FP), Vetoquinol (VETO.FP), Groupe Crit (CEN.FP), Aubay (AUB.FP), Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP), Solutions 30 (S30.FP), La Francaise de l'Energie (FDE.FP), Visiativ (ALVIV.FP), HighCo (HCO.FP)
Southern Europe: TOD'S (TOD.IM)
UK: abrdn (ABDN.LN), Computacenter (CCC.LN), Quilter (QLT.LN), JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN), PayPoint (PAY.LN), PensionBee (PBEE.LN), Lords Group Trading (LORD.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Jan Flash Consumer Confidence (16.1) vs consensus (14.3) and prior revised (15.1) from (15.0)
UK Dec Public Sector Net Borrowing (£6.85B) vs consensus (£11.2B) and prior revised (£12.78B) from (£13.41B)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Mar 24): +$0.31 or +0.41% to $75.07
€-$ (0.0046) or (0.42%) to 1.0839
£-$ (0.0048) or (0.38%) to 1.2663
€-£ (0.0004) to 0.8559
S&P 500 (0.09%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: (3.20%)
DAX: (0.74%)
CAC: (2.06%)
MIB: (0.90%)
Stoxx 600: (1.56%)
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