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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.80%), Hang Seng +3.56%, Shanghai Composite +1.80% as of 03:10 ET

Jan 24 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities mixed Wednesday with Greater China leading for the second successive day: Hong Kong stocks led from the bell and jumped again as the PBOC cut RRRs; mainland exchanges also closed higher but missed the RRR news. Japan saw its second down day in a row, a small loss in South Korea too. Taiwan was flat, India higher, Southeast Asia also supported. US futures higher, Europe opened with gains. US dollar lower, yen notably weaker in Asia, yuan weakened on PBOC news. Treasury yields mixed, JGB yields higher across tenors. Crude blends, precious metals and industrial metals all higher.

    • Greater China markets followed through from yesterday's gains with another strong day Wednesday, largely on the back of an overnight spike in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon index following reports Jack Ma and Joe Tsai had bought Alibaba stock. News the PBOC was to cut RRR by 0.5%, effectively pumping CNY1T into the market, pushed the Hang Seng higher in the final half hour of trading. Despite the two-day rally, investors remain skeptical over PBOC moves and Beijing's promises of a CNY2T support package to stem market losses, saying a sustainable rally will only take place once a structural recovery is underway in the economy. Japan's markets reacted negatively again today to the BOJ's 'hawkish hold' yesterday as investors increasingly eye April as an end to NIRP. The yen strengthened again today and is back under 148 per dollar, dragging the equity market lower.

    • Overarching YTD themes tentatively holding for now as the US dollar remains elevated on a jump in bond yields, and technology stocks still lead globally. However, the China rally/Japan contraction indicates at least a short-term pause with the US PCE deflator and ECB meeting still ahead.

    • Japan flash manufacturing index edged higher but missed estimates while services grew once more; Japan exports grew on strong auto demand while imports lagged to give a surprise trade surplus. Australia flash manufacturing PMI expanded slightly. New Zealand Q4 CPI inflation eased to the weakest pace since mid-2021. India's flash PMI grew to four-month highs. Malaysia's central bank kept rates on hold at 3.0%, as expected. Overnight, former President Trump won the New Hampshire primary but a subsequent dollar spike, as happened post the Iowa causes, did not materialize this time.

    • Bridgestone (5108.JP) is to invest ¥800B to develop vehicle tires for EV cars. Alibaba (9988.HK) founder Jack Ma bought $151M of Alibaba ADRs and Chairman Joe Tsai around $50M of the company's Hong Kong-listed stock. Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) has bought power from a new solar farm in Queensland as it looks to halve its direct and indirect emissions by 2030.

  • Digest:

    • PBOC to cut RRR by 50 bp on 5-Feb:

      • PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng said in a press conference central bank to lower RRR for commercial lenders by 50 bp on 5-Feb, unleashing CNY1T ($139B) in long-term liquidity to the market. PBOC cut RRR twice in 2023 with last reduction in September. Will also lower interest rate for refinancing and rediscounting of loans to support agriculture and small businesses by 25 bp from 25-Jan. Added moves will help push LPRs lower. Pan said central bank to strengthen cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments to provide healthy monetary conditions for economic growth and price stabilization. Emphasized importance of maintaining price stability and pushing for moderate price recovery as key considerations for conducting monetary policies. Reiterated goal of keeping yuan stable while said narrowing of US-China rate spreads would enhance autonomy of China's monetary policy operations. PBOC will establish a credit market department to guide support for key areas, including technology and digitalization.

    • BOJ rate hike debate shifts to March or April:

      • Nikkei discussed market perceptions that BOJ deliberations on ending NIRP have entered the final stage. With inflation forecasts on track to overshoot the 2% target for the fourth straight year, conditions will be met if strong wage growth continues. Noted recent polls showed clear consensus on an April move, coinciding with the next Outlook Report. Board members will also be able to parse March BOJ Tankan and new information from the next branch managers meeting. While shunto tallies will be released from mid-March, small firm conditions will come to light later. Cited Governor Ueda acknowledging that more information will be available in April over March. Article cited thoughts the March FY corporate earnings season tips the scale in favor of April. BOJ sources were quoted as saying a March move should be avoided. Still, March prospects remain plausible due to the political schedule with lower house by-elections set for April, adding to ongoing turmoil from the political fundraising scandal. Delay in normalization after spring remains a possibility on the back of Fed rate cut expectations, posing the risk of sharp yen appreciation.

    • China's package of market rescue plan faces skepticism:

      • Bloomberg discussed how China's bold plan to arrest current stock market rout faces investors' skepticism as some fear rebound will be short-lived without improvements in economic fundamentals. Noted combination of China's history of botched market rescue efforts, gloomy state of economy, and uncertainties over Beijing's long-term policy plan leave investors doubtful. Added stock market rout as stability risk to Beijing and authorities making efforts to end sharp declines ahead of Lunar New Year holidays. Reports of a possible CNY2T stabilization fund and State Council's vow to calm markets sent Greater China stocks and yuan higher Tuesday. Jack Ma and Joe Tsai's purchases of Alibaba (NYTimes) also boosted some sentiments. Meanwhile another Bloomberg story noted onshore investors are abandoning equities for bonds, which sent 30Y government yields to lowest in almost two decades. Recall Chinese investors also flock to ETFs tracking overseas equities despite warnings that they are paying substantial premiums (Yicai).

    • Japan flash manufacturing PMI edges higher, services stronger:

      • Flash manufacturing PMI was 48.0 in January, up from 47.9 in the previous month, remaining in contraction for the eighth straight month. Output and new orders logged smaller declines despite deeper contraction in exports. Inflation metrics softened with output prices marking the lowest since June 2021. Employment swung to contraction, while finished goods inventories declined after a neutral reading in December. Export weakness translated to the biggest depletion of backlogs since August 2020. In contrast, services PMI extended gains to 52.7 from 51.5 on the back of stronger growth in output and new business. Report noted building backlogs prompting firms to increase employment. Composite PMI rose to 51.1 from 50.0. Overall results described as a positive start to the year led by services. Noted forward-looking indicators offered some encouragement, citing growth in aggregate orders while stabilization in backlogs provide an early sign that output starting to be supported by better demand rather than from filling backorders.

    • Japan export growth strongest in a year:

      • Customs exports rose 9.8% y/y in December, above consensus 9.2%. Follows 0.2% decline in the previous month and marks the fastest growth in a year. Main contributors were autos, marine vessels and auto parts. Auto demand remains a notable bright spot, underscored by broad-based strength across major regions. Broader global demand rebounded with exports to US accelerating sharply to 20.4%, combining with a bounce in EU demand. Asia shipments turned positive for the first time in a year amid an upswing in China following extended declines. Imports fell 6.8%, weaker than expectations of a 5.4% drop. Decline narrowed from 11.9% in November. Main drags were coal, LNG and drugs. Nominal values were supported by volumes showing notable growth in exports, while imports extended declines. Usual attention on 2023 aggregates with exports posting the third straight annual growth at 2.8%while imports contracted 7% due to lower oil and gas prices (Nikkei). BOJ real trade indices showed December exports rebounded faster than imports, though imports narrowly outpaced exports in Q4, pointing to a negative contribution from external demand to GDP.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +21.4% 3808.HK (Sinotruk Hong Kong): guides FY net income attributable to increase by 200-240% vs year-ago CNY1.67B

      • +8.0% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): Jack Ma reportedly have been buying Alibaba stock in recent months

      • +7.2% 1788.HK (Guotai Junan International Holdings): guides FY net profit HK$180-220M vs year-ago HK$83M

      • +0.7% 8227.JP (SHIMAMURA): reports January Shimamura existing stores sales +1.9% y/y

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -4.0% 2333.HK (Great Wall Motor): reports preliminary FY CAS net income attributable CNY7.01B vs FactSet CNY7.05B

      • -1.9% 009540.KS (HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co.): reports FY operating profit KRW282.30B vs FactSet KRW332.44B, revenue KRW21.296T vs FactSet KRW21.304T

      • -1.0% 5108.JP (Bridgestone): reportedly to invest ¥800B in EV tires over next three years

      • -0.7% 005490.KS (POSCO): reports FY operating profit KRW3.531T vs FactSet KRW4.193T, revenue KRW77.1

      • -0.3% 8604.JP (Nomura): accelerating move into real estate, unlisted stocks and other private assets

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • January flash manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs 47.9 in prior month

          • Services PMI 52.7 vs 51.5 in prior month

          • Composite PMI 51.1 vs 50.0 in prior month

        • December trade balance ¥62.1B vs consensus (¥122.6B) and revised (¥780.4B) in prior month

          • Exports +9.8% y/y vs consensus +9.2% and (0.2%) in prior month

          • Imports (6.8%) y/y vs consensus (5.4%) and (11.9%) in prior month

      • New Zealand Q4

        • CPI +0.5% q/q vs consensus +0.5% and +1.8% in prior quarter

          • CPI +4.7% y/y vs consensus +4.7% and +5.6% in prior quarter

      • India January

        • Flash manufacturing PMI 56.9 vs 54.9 in prior month

        • Services PMI 61.2 vs 59 in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (291.09) or (0.80%) to 36226.48

      • Hang Seng: 545.89 or +3.56% to 15899.87

      • Shanghai Composite: 49.80 or +1.80% to 2820.77

      • Shenzhen Composite: 20.27 or +1.25% to 1646.86

      • ASX200: 4.30 or +0.06% to 7519.20

      • KOSPI: (8.92) or (0.36%) to 2469.69

      • SENSEX: 143.63 or +0.20% to 70514.18

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.69) or (0.47%) to 147.6870

      • $-KRW: (5.27) or (0.39%) to 1334.4900

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.12% to 0.6589

      • $-INR: (0.01) or (0.02%) to 83.1460

      • $-CNY: +0.03 or +0.40% to 7.1748

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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