Jan 24 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher. The Netherlands +2.4%, Germany +1.6% and Austria +1.3% lead outperformers whilst, Norway +0.1%,Denmark +0.3% and Switzerland +0.4% lead underperformers.
Central bank focus turns to ECB meeting on Thursday. Likely to be an uneventful update after big communication push by officials last week against rate cut expectations. German Ifo Institute cut GDP growth forecast after 2024 budget agreement. Latest update from UK's XpertHR flagged softer pay deals in early 2024, suggesting peak in wage growth. Elsewhere, Trump won the New Hampshire primary though impact was muted. Israel and Hamas said to be nearing month-long truce for hostage release.
On the macro calendar today, focus on Jan flash PMIs. Readings show slow pick-up in manufacturing activity for Eurozone 46.6 vs consensus 44.8 and prior 44.4, Germany 45.4 vs consensus 43.7 and prior 43.3 and France 43.2 vs consensus 42.5 and prior 42.1 and UK 47.3 vs consensus 46.7 and prior 46.2 while services level declined in Eurozone 48.4 vs consensus 49.0 and prior 48.8, Germany 47.6 vs consensus 49.5 and prior 49.3 and France 45.0 vs consensus 46.0 and prior 45.7, while in UK Jan Flash Services PMI surprised on the the upside rising to 53.8 vs consensus 53.2 and prior 53.4.
In earnings news, in the DACH region, Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW) posted Q1 sales numbers and SAP (SAP.GR) reported Q4 earnings, announced a restructuring program in 2024 and guided 2025 ambitions. In France, Interparfums (ITP.FP) and Alstom (ALO.FP) issued FY/Q3 updates. In the Nordics, Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF.NO), Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO), Swedbank (SWED.A.SS0 and Storytel (STORY.B.SS) updated investor with their latest numbers. In the Netherlands, heavyweight ASML Holdings (ASML.NA) reported Q4 earnings and declared a FY23 dividend of €6.1/share, +5.2% y/y. In the UK, Quilter (QLT.LN), abrdn Plc (ABDN.LN), EasyJet (EZJ.LN), TI Fluid Systems (TIFS.LN), Tullow Oil (TLW.LN) and Genel Energy (GENL.LN) were among other companies from the region to update investors.
On the M&A news flow, press reports suggest Commerzbank (CBK.GR) striving to remain independent; Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) merger not under discussion. Press reports suggest Italy plans to sell up to 13% stake in Poste Italiane (PST.IM). Elsewwere, Manzana Spain Bidco raises offer for Applus Services (APPS,SM) to €10.65/share.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 22-Jan to 26-Jan attached) LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP), Nokia (NOKIA.FH), Atlas Copco (ATCO.A.SS), Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB.A.SS), Sandvik (SAND.SS), Aker Carbon Capture (ACC.NO), IG Group Holdings (IGG.LN), Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ.LN), CVS Group (CVSG.LN), Fuller, Smith & Turner (FSTA.LN) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Jan Ifo survey, France Jan business confidence, Switzerland Jan economic sentiment - ZEW, Spain Dec PPI, Sweden Dec PPI, Norway Dec unemployment rate, UK Jan distributive trades - CBI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology +4.85%, Basic Resources +2.10%, Real Estate +2.00%, Retail +1.37%, Travel & Leisure +1.27%,
Underperformers:
Telecom (0.27%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.02%, Utilities +0.30%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.31%, Health Care +0.40%, Autos & Parts +0.57%, Energy+0.82%, Insurance +0.96%, Chemicals +1.07%, Consumer Products and Services +1.08%, Media +1.08%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.11%, Banks +1.17%, Construct & Mtls +1.19%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
.EU
UK
UK cannot prove sustainability of biomass power plants, warns watchdog - FT
The runners and riders to replace Rishi Sunak - The Telegraph
Rishi Sunak open to reappointing Lee Anderson as Tory deputy chair despite Rwanda bill rebellion - The Guardian
PMQs gives taste of political mud-slinging to come - BBC
Germany
Turning away from China could endanger German financial system - Handelsblatt
Germany's train services halted in longest strike yet - DW
Switzerland
Swiss Banking Regulator Names ECB's Stefan Walter as Chief - Bloomberg
Greece
IMF sees significant improvement in Greece's prospects - ekathimerini
Italy
Meloni at question time, Schlein clash on health care - Ansa
Sweden
Hungary supports Sweden's NATO membership, PM Orban tells Stoltenberg - Reuters
Norway
Norway Set to Take a Breather After Rate-Hike Marathon - Bloomberg
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+20.1% STORY.B.SS (Storytel SEK43.32, +7.64) -- prelim Q4 sales
+12.1% DEC.LN (Diversified Energy Co. £8.72, +1.03) -- update regarding the recent movement in the company's share price
+10.7% NAH.LN (NAHL Group £0.63, +0.07) -- trading update
+9.3% HOC.LN (Hochschild Mining £0.95, +0.08) -- Q4 production update
+9.3% ASML.NA (ASML Holding €752.10, +65.60) -- Q4 earnings
+7.7% SAP.GR (SAP €158.72, +11.48) -- Q4 earnings; restructuring
+6.4% HSP.LN (Hargreaves Services £4.20, +0.26) -- H1 earnings
+6.1% APPS.SM (Applus Services €10.89, +0.63) -- Manzana Spain Bidco updates on Applus Services offer
+5.8% KINV.B.SS (Kinnevik SEK112.75, +6.20) -- upgraded to buy from hold at DnB Markets
+5.7% CEY.LN (Centamin £0.99, +0.05) -- Liberum Capital upgrade
+4.9% IDS.LN (International Distributions Services £2.74, +0.13) -- UK's Ofcom calls for national debate on future of UK's postal service; Universal postal service must modernise
+4.5% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK13.48, +0.58) -- raises FY23 EBIT guidance
+4.2% FRES.LN (Fresnillo £5.08, +0.20) -- Q4 production update
+4.0% LEG.GR (LEG Immobilien €74.94, +2.86) -- BNP Paribas upgrade
+3.8% BEC.IM (B&C Speakers €17.85, +0.65) -- prelim FY sales
+3.0% QLT.LN (Quilter £1.03, +0.03) -- trading statement
+3.0% PAY.LN (PayPoint £5.49, +0.16) -- trading update
+3.0% NDA.GR (Aurubis €66.94, +1.94) -- agreement with CEO, CFO, COO to prematurely terminate their current Executive board contracts
+2.9% EZJ.LN (EasyJet £5.29, +0.15) -- trading update
+2.9% URW.FP (Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield €66.76, +1.84) -- BNP Paribas upgrade
+2.4% VITR.SS (Vitrolife SEK176.00, +4.00) -- prelim Q4 earnings; SEK 4.3B impairment charge in Q4
+2.0% ABDN.LN (abrdn Plc £1.74, +0.03) -- trading update
Trading Lower:
-49.0% MEN.LN (Molecular Energies £0.36, -0.36) -- to raise up to £500K at 35p/share
-28.4% ZOO.LN (Zoo Digital Group £0.43, -0.17) -- trading update
-20.8% RBG.LN (Revolution Bars Group £0.03, -0.01) -- trading update
-14.7% CWR.LN (Ceres Power Holdings £2.17, -0.37) -- trading update
-10.6% PUM.GR (Puma €40.32, -4.55) -- prelim FY numbers
-9.0% CEVI.SS (CellaVision SEK197.80, -18.30) -- Pareto downgrade
-7.5% MIRI.LN (Mirriad Advertising £0.02, -0.00) -- trading update
-6.4% SNR.LN (Senior £1.61, -0.11) -- Barclays downgrade
-5.5% ALO.FP (Alstom €11.29, -0.65) -- Q3 sales
-3.7% ORON.SW (ORIOR CHF67.60, -2.60) -- prelim FY sales
-3.4% NOD.NO (Nordic Semiconductor NOK110.80, -4.00) -- DnB Markets downgrade
-2.9% AET.LN (Afentra £0.37, -0.01) -- operations and financial update
-2.6% UHR.SW (Swatch Group CHF199.35, -5.35) -- Mediobanca, Kepler Cheuvreux downgrades
-1.9% GJF.NO (Gjensidige Forsikring NOK172.70, -3.40) -- Q4 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: NSI (NSI.NA)
DACHs: Givaudan (GIVN.SW)
France: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP), STMicroelectronics (STMPA.FP)
Nordics: Nokia (NOKIA.FH), Atlas Copco (ATCO.A.SS), Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB.A.SS), Sandvik (SAND.SS), Essity (ESSITY.B.SS), Billerud (BILL.SS), Granges (GRNG.SS), Xvivo Perfusion (XVIVO.SS), Investment AB Oresund (ORES.SS), Intrum (INTRUM.SS), BE Group (BEGR.SS), Ependion (EPEN.SS), Micro Systemation (MSAB.B.SS), Tryg (TRYG.DC), Netcompany (NETC.DC), RTX (RTX.DC), Aker Carbon Capture (ACC.NO), Pareto Bank (PARB.NO)
Southern Europe: Bankinter (BKT.SM)
UK: IG Group Holdings (IGG.LN), Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ.LN), NCC Group (NCC.LN)
Trading Update:
France: Alten (ATE.FP), Cegedim (CGM.FP), EXEL Industries (EXE.FP), Gensight Biologics (SIGHT.FP), Groupe OKwind (ALOKW.FP), JCDecaux (DEC.FP), Manitou BF (MTU.FP), Maisons du Monde (MDM.FP), Maurel & Prom (MAU.FP), STEF (STF.FP), Sword Group (SWP.FP), Vranken-Pommery Monopole (VRAP.FP)
DACHs: Bucher Industries (BUCN.SW), Emmi (EMMN.SW)
Southern Europe: Aeffe (AEF.IM)
Nordics: Var Energi (VAR.NO)
UK: CVS Group (CVSG.LN), Fuller, Smith & Turner (FSTA.LN), Halfords Group (HFD.LN), Intermediate Capital Group (ICP.LN), PPHE Hotel Group Ltd. (PPH.LN), St. James's Place (STJ.LN)
Traffic: Getlink (GET.FP)
CMD/events: SNAM (SRG.IM) Strategic Plan
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Jan
Flash Manufacturing PMI 46.6 vs consensus 44.8 and prior 44.4
Flash Services PMI 48.4 vs consensus 49.0 and prior 48.8
UK
Jan
Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.3 vs consensus 46.7 and prior 46.2
Flash Services PMI 53.8 vs consensus 53.2 and prior 53.4
CBI Industrial Trends Orders (30) vs consensus (23) and prior (23)
Q1 CBI Business Optimism Index (3) vs consensus (2) and prior (15
France Jan
Flash Manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs consensus 42.5 and prior 42.1
France Jan Flash Services PMI 45.0 vs consensus 46.0 and prior 45.7
Germany Jan
Flash Manufacturing PMI 45.4 vs consensus 43.7 and prior 43.3
Flash Services PMI 47.6 vs consensus 49.5 and prior 49.3
Finland Dec PPI (7.6%) y/y vs consensus (7.9%) and prior (7.7%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Mar 24): +$0.85 or +1.14% to $75.22
€-$ +0.0048 or +0.44% to 1.0904
£-$ +0.0056 or +0.44% to 1.2744
€-£ +0.0002 to 0.8557
S&P 500 +0.62%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (2.66%)
DAX: +0.83%
CAC: (1.16%)
MIB: (0.12%)
Stoxx 600: (0.40%)
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