Jan 24 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher amidst mixed Asia equities Wednesday. Japan benchmarks set to close down for a second day, Australia markets closed flat. Greater China mixed and rather volatile with Hang Seng higher, mainland indices currently mixed. More losses for the Kospi, Taiex flat. India opened higher to follow US markets, Southeast Asia mostly higher. US futures higher.
EU Commission due to present its Economic Security Package. EU's Dombrovskis speech at the EU Sustainable Investment Summit. In UK, there's MPs questions on Scotland in the run-up to the weekly PMQs at 12noon GMT followed by a general debate on defence and international affair. Committee topics include emerging diseases and learnings from covid-19 (9:30), future energy technology mix (10:00), future defence aviation capabilities (14:30). In the evening, Chancellor Scholz hosts PM of the Slovak Republic, Robert Fico, for his inaugural visit.
In central banks, Bundesbank Monthly Report pre-release at 12noon CET whilst Bundesbank's Balz is a panellist at Asian Financial Forum (through Thu).
On the macro front, Jan flash manufacturing/services PMIs are due for Eurozone, France, Germany and the UK as well as Finland Dec PPI, UK Jan industrial trends orders and Q1 business optimism index - CBI.
In earnings, ASML Holding (ASML.NA) reported Q4 EPS €5.21 vs consensus €4.76, guides Q1/FY24 and hikes divi by 5.2%. In the DACHs region, SAP (SAP.GR) reported Q4 EPS €1.41 vs FactSet €1.59 and said it will to undertake restructuring program in 2024 as well as issuing updated FY24 outlook and FY25 ambitions. Siemens Energy (ENR.GR) reported preliminary Q1 and kept outlook for full fiscal year unchanged whilst Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW) reported Q1 sales CHF2.24B vs consensus CHF2.24B. In France, Interparfums (ITP.FP) reported preliminary FY operating margin should exceed 19% vs prior guidance between 18-19% whilst Alstom (ALO.FP) reported Q3 revenue €4.22B vs consensus €4.42B and confirmed FY23/24 outlook and mid-term objectives. From the Nordics, Swedbank (SWED.A.SS) reported Q4 EPS SEK7.38 vs FactSet SEK7.19 and Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF.NO) is out with Q4 net income NOK1.11B vs consensus NOK1.42B
Also due to report today are Hargreaves Services (HSP.LN), abrdn (ABDN.LN), Computacenter (CCC.LN), Quilter (QLT.LN) and JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN) as well as TOD'S (TOD.IM) post-market.
Politics/Macro/World News
Stronger Swiss Franc Painful for Companies, SNB President Thomas Jordan Says - Bloomberg
Germany's Ifo Institute: Cuts Growth Forecast For 2024 To 0.7% - Down From 0.9% Predicted In Mid-December - Ifo
Investors pile into peripheral eurozone bonds in hunt for yield - FT
UK pay awards hold at 6% in late 2023, dip in early 2024: XpertHR - Reuters
Finland Dec PPI (7.6%) y/y vs consensus (7.9%) and prior (7.7%)
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Benelux:
ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- reports Q4 EPS €5.21 vs consensus €4.76; guides Q1/FY24 and hikes divi by 5.2%
DACHs:
SAP.GR (SAP) --
to undertake restructuring program in 2024; issues updated FY24 outlook and FY25 ambitions
reports Q4 EPS €1.41 vs FactSet €1.59 [19 est, €1.40-1.87]
BARN.SW (Barry Callebaut) -- reports Q1 sales CHF2.24B vs consensus CHF2.24B
ENR.GR (Siemens Energy) -- announces preliminary results for Q1; outlook for full fiscal year unchanged
LNZ.AV (Lenzing) -- reports IFRS projected asset impairment of up to €480M for the 2023 financial year; specifies FY EBITDA guidance at €300M vs FactSet €285.8M
France:
ALO.FP (Alstom) -- reports Q3 revenue €4.22B vs consensus €4.42B; FY23/24 outlook and mid-term objectives confirmed
ITP.FP (Interparfums) -- reports preliminary FY operating margin should exceed 19% vs prior guidance between 18-19%
Nordics:
GJF.NO (Gjensidige Forsikring) -- reports Q4 net income NOK1.11B vs consensus NOK1.42B
SWED.A.SS (Swedbank) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK7.38 vs FactSet SEK7.19 [14 est, SEK6.34-7.90]
VITR.SS (Vitrolife) -- to record SEK 4.3B impairment charge related to Igenomix and provides preliminary financials for Q4
PIHLIS.FH Pihlajalinna reports preliminary FY results; Adjusted EBITA to exceed €37M vs FactSet €35.8M and guidance range €34-37M
M&A
ALLFG.NA (Allfunds Group) -- SIX Group considering bid for Allfunds - Reuters
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- striving to remain independent; Deutsche Bank merger not under discussion - Reuters
AREC.LN (Arecor Therapeutics) -- notes Sanofi acquisition of Inhibrx for $2.2B (€2.02B)
BSGR.NA (B&S Group) -- completes acquisition of additional 24.2% stake in Topbrands
CPHN.SW (CPH Chemie + Papier Holding) -- Zeochem to acquire Sorbead India and Swambe Chemicals; terms undisclosed
CICN.SW (Cicor Technologies) -- Cicor closes acquisition of STS Defence; deal was announced on 18-Oct
Other
CA.FP (Carrefour) -- Intermarché prepares to sell around thirty Casino stores to Carrefour -- Les Echos
CGG.FP (CGG) -- announces Trinidad and Tobago 3D seismic data reprocessing program
SKA.B.SS (Skanska) -- builds power projects in Vestland County, Norway, for NOK 1.9B (~SEK 1.9B)
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- appoints Aleksandar Ivanovic as President Asset Management effective 1-Mar
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- expects AI to have immense impact on the discovery and commercialisation of new battery materials - FT
DIE.BB (D'Ieteren Group) -- D'Ieteren Group's PHE refinances outstanding bonds
PST.IM (Poste Italiane) -- Italy plans to sell up to 13% stake in Poste Italiane - Reuters
DWS.GR (DWS Group) -- provides prosecutors with additional information following raid by German police - Handelsblatt (23-Jan, 16:52 CET)
BPOST.BB (bpost) -- renames Philippe Dartienne as CFO
SAS.SS (SAS) -- to file amended chapter 11 plan, including financial projections
Rio Tinto reports on fatalities from plane crash near its Diavik mine
Rio Tinto to buy all electricity from 1.1GW Upper Calliope Solar Farm to provide renewable power to Gladstone operation
Key rating changes
Upgrades
Liberum Capital upgrades CEY.LN, EDV.LN
FTK.GR (flatexDEGIRO) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
KINV.B.SS (Kinnevik) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
Downgrades
BNP Paribas Exane upgrades HMSO.LN, LEG.GR, URW.FP, and VGP.BB; downgrades GFC.FP, LAND.LN
NCC.B.SS (NCC) -- short-term recommendation downgraded to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
CFR.SW (Richemont) -- to outperform from buy at CLSA
WAF.GR (Siltronic) -- to sell from neutral at UBS
SNR.LN (Senior) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
CEVI.SS (CellaVision) -- to hold from buy at Pareto
CRST.LN (Crest Nicholson Holdings) -- to hold from add at Peel Hunt
Initiations
MOVE.SW (Medacta Group) -- buy at Berenberg
Other Actions
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- transferred hold at Stifel; prior rating was hold
Data
Nikkei (0.80%) to 36226.48
Hang Seng +2.09% to 15675.16
Shanghai Composite +1.67% to 2817.19
S&P futures +13.8 vs prior close of 4895.0
€-$ +0.0010 or +0.09% to 1.0865
$-¥ (0.55) or (0.37%) to 147.83
€-¥ (0.43) or (0.27%) to 160.61
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