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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.03% to 7529.73, DAX +0.10% to 16906.92, CAC40 +0.11% to 7464.20, STOXX 600 +0.30% to 478.53

Jan 25 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets ended mixed to higher, and having spent the session fluctuating either side of unchanged, pan-European indices ended on a firmer note as optimism over future ECB rate cuts increased.

    • With shares ending around the best levels of the day, Finland, Netherlands both +1.1% and Ireland +0.8% led outperformers, with Greece (0.7%) and Italy (0.5%) leading underperformers

    • Away from geo-political headlines concerning the war in Ukraine and Israel's war on Gaza, Central bank policy announcements were in focus. ECB keeps benchmark rate unchanged, as expected. Lagarde and de Guindos' prepared remarks at post decision press conf. Norges Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as expected, and Turkey's Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate +250bps to 45%

    • Amongst the economic data releases, German Ifo business climate survey weakens, France business survey eased, whilst there were mixed pictures vs consensus and prior month for Sweden and Spain PPI as well as unemployment rate for Finland and Norway. In the UK, SMMT announced Dec car manufacturing +20.7% y/y bringing 2023 to 905,117 units +16.8% y/y and together with commercial vehicles made, production tops 1M units, up +17.0% y/y in best year since 2019

    • Earnings/updates that led to some of the smaller share price moves included Snam (SRG.IM) presents 2023-27 Strategic Plan; raises FY23 adj. net income guidance to €1.14B vs prior of at least €1.1B, FactSet €1.17B; targets €1.33B at the end of 2027. Vår Energi (VAR.NO) FY total production 213 kboepd vs guidance 210-220 kboepd. Halfords Group (HFD.LN) Q3 group revenue +2.0% LFL; notes strong start to Q4 trading, FY24 profit guidance maintained and Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ.LN) Q3 net income (€105.4M) vs FactSet (€68.4M) [7 est, (€116)-23.3M]; maintains FY24 net income guidance range of €350-400M.

    • Elsewhere, UK government says e&'s (EAND.AE) strategic relationship agreement with Vodafone Group (VOD.LN) poses risk to national security; orders mitigating steps. The UK company's shares ended (0.9%) lower. WPP (WPP.LN) +1.7% confirms it will merge BCW and Hill & Knowlton to create Burson

    • M&A news flow included Flybird Holding increasing the offer price for Musti Group (MUSTI.FH) to €26.10/share, with the Finnish company's shares ending little changed. Blackstone-Permira provided update on offer to acquire Adevinta (ADE.NO), the acceptance period having been extended to 7-Feb. The acquisitions of DX (Group) (DX.LN) and Hotel Chocolat Group (HOTC.LN) move closer to completion. Smart Metering Systems (SMS.LN) and KKR announce publication of offer document. Also, Haleon (HLN.LN) to sell ChapStick brand to Suave Brands Co, to receive pre-tax cash proceeds of ~$430M, as well as passive minority interest in Suave Brands Co and Millicom International Cellular (TIGO.SS) subsidiary Tigo Colombia agrees to sell ~1,100 wireless communications towers to KKR. Reportedly, Societe Generale (GLE.FP) is looking to sell Shine, its online bank aimed at corporations and acquired in 2020

    • Athens International Airport (+ATHENSAIR) sets indicative price range of €7.00-8.20/share for IPO through BofA, Morgan Stanley. First day of trading on the Athens Stock Exchange is expected to be 7-Feb. At the low end of indicative price range market cap would be ~€2.1B

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Technology +1.74%, Chemicals +1.37%, Media +0.93%, Retail +0.93%, Telecom +0.77%, Construct & Mtls +0.67%, Consumer Products and Services +0.61%, Financial Svcs +0.46%, Real Estate +0.39%, Energy +0.38%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.37%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.30%

      • Underperformers:

        • Autos & Parts (0.76%), Health Care (0.35%), Utilities (0.31%), Banks (0.27%), Basic Resources (0.21%), Insurance (0.17%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.02%

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • Central Banks:

        • ECB says incoming information has broadly confirmed its previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook - release

        • Norges Bank expects to keep policy rate at current levels for some time ahead - release

        • Turkey's Central Bank assesses that the monetary tightness required to establish the disinflation course is achieved and that this level will be maintained as long as needed - release

      • Finland:

        • Government decides on ways to enhance Finland's ability to exert advance influence in the EU - release

      • France:

        • Macron visits India, eyes trade deals - DW

        • France presses UK to help fill multibillion-pound hole in nuclear projects - FT

      • Greece:

      • Ireland:

        • New survey of opinion polls suggests Sinn Féin will gain three seats in the upcoming EU Parliament elections - RTE

      • Sweden:

        • Government gives new assignments for the expansion of offshore wind power - release

      • UK:

        • Next government will face some of the toughest choices in generations - Institute for Fiscal Studies

        • Rishi Sunak offers to sacrifice Brexit freedoms to re-establish government in Northern Ireland - The Telegraph

        • CMA's new Microeconomics Unit research explores trends in the UK job market including the market power of employers, the impact on wages, the use of restrictive clauses, and recent developments such as hybrid working - release

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +12.1% ELM.LN (Elementis) -- KPS Capital Partners said to have examined acquisition of Elementis, has since paused consideration -- Reuters

        • +11.1% DOCS.LN (Dr. Martens) -- Q3 Trading Update: revenue £267.1M vs FactSet £290M; reaffirms FY guidance

        • +10.8% NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- Q4 comparable EPS €0.10 vs consensus €0.12; announces €600M buyback and guides FY24

        • +9.1% NETC.DC (Netcompany) -- FY EPS DKK6.09 vs FactSet DKK8.97 [12 est, DKK7.30-12.06]; targets 2024 growth between +7-10%

        • +9.0% ARAMI.FP (Aramis Group) -- Q1 revenue €527.0M vs year-ago €439.2M; reiterates FY24 outlook

        • +9.0% ICP.LN (Intermediate Capital Group) -- Q3 Trading Statement: Total AUM $86.3B, +13% y/y, fee-earning AUM $68.4B, +10% y/y

        • +8.1% 2GB.GR (2G Energy) -- Q4 new order intake €47.5M, +28% y/y; reaffirms 2024 net sales guidance, raises metric for 2025

        • +7.9% GIVN.SW (Givaudan) -- FY net income CHF893M vs consensus CHF842M; Reaffirms 2025 strategy

        • +7.8% TM17.LN (Team17 Group) -- Trading update: continues to expect FY23 adj. EBITDA to be at least £28.5M vs FactSet £29.9M

        • +7.6% TOD.IM (Tod's) -- FY Sales €1.13B vs FactSet €1.12B

        • +6.7% MAB1.LN (Mortgage Advice Bureau) -- Q4 trading better than anticipated, expects FY adj PBT slightly ahead of market consensus

        • +6.6% VU.FP (VusionGroup) -- Prelim. Q4 revenue €238.2M vs FactSet €235.8M [2 est, €222.5-249M]; anticipates crossing the €1B milestone in restated sales in 2024 vs FactSet €1.04B

        • +6.5% FEVR.LN (Fevertree Drinks) -- FY23 pre-close trading update: revenue £364.4M vs FactSet £383.4M; reiterates FY24 revenue and Adj EBITDA guidance; the shares revered initial falls

        • +6.0% SEB.A.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) -- Q4 EPS SEK4.03 vs consensus SEK4.25; announces total dividend of SEK11.50/share; Initiates new SEK 1.75B buyback program

        • +5.8% ADS.GR (Adidas) -- move attributed to positive comments being made on pre earnings calls

        • +5.8% NSI.NA (NSI NV) -- preliminary FY EPRA EPS €2.01 vs year-ago €2.15; sells Laanderpoort to ING for €24M

        • +4.9% MTO.LN (Mitie Group) -- Q3 trading update: revenue £1.15 vs year-ago £1.01B

        • +4.2% IDL.FP (ID Logistics Group) -- Q4 revenue €776.2M, +14% vs year-ago €678.1M

        • +4.4% TRYG.DC (Tryg) -- Q4 net profit DKK1.1B vs consensus DKK1.1B, reaffirms financial targets for 2024

        • +3.7% PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe) -- prelim FY revenue €13.10B vs FactSet €13.09B [11 est, €12.99-13.15B]; announces AI plan

          • On earnings/updates: SAND.SS (Sandvik), VAR.NO (Vår Energi), GET.FP (Getlink), BVIC.LN (Britvic), ANCR.LN (Animalcare Group), CVSG.LN (CVS Group), SRC.LN (SigmaRoc), STB.LN (Secure Trust Bank), BILL.SS (Billerud), MAU.FP (Maurel et Prom), INTRUM.SS (Intrum), PPH.LN (PPHE Hotel Group) and reversing initial falls S30.FP (Solutions 30), FOXT.LN (Foxtons Group), GRNG.SS (Gränges), IDOX.LN (IDOX)

      • Notable Decliners

        • -11.4% XVIVO.SS (Xvivo Perfusion) -- Q4 adj. EBIT SEK0.8M vs FactSet SEK19.8M [4 est, SEK8-30M]

        • -9.4% BEGR.SS (BE Group) -- Q4 EPS (SEK2.58) vs year-ago (SEK7.79)

        • -8.6% AERO.SW (Montana Aerospace) -- preliminary FY revenue €1.43B vs guidance for net sales of greater €1.5B, FactSet €1.54B [5 est, €1.50-1.60B]; guides 2024 Adj. EBITDA in the range of €180-200M vs FactSet €197.7M

        • -7.2% VETO.FP (Vetoquinol) -- preliminary Q4 revenue €137.3M vs FactSet €136.3M [1 est]; downgraded to hold from buy at Stifel

        • -7.0% IGG.LN (IG Group Holdings) -- H1 EPS 38.9p ex-items vs FactSet 42.5p [1 est]

        • -6.0% MDM.FP (Maisons du Monde) -- Q4 revenue €367.9M, (8%) vs year-ago €358.0M

        • -5.6% BKT.SM (Bankinter) -- Q4 net income €160.1M vs consensus €189.4M

        • -5.2% EMMN.SW (Emmi) -- preliminary FY revenue CHF4.24B vs FactSet CHF4.27B

        • -4.3% RTX.DC (RTX A/S) -- Q1 EPS (DKK4.30) vs FactSet (DKK0.71) [1 est], reaffirms FY guidance

        • -4.3% ATCO.A.SS (Atlas Copco) -- Q4 EPS SEK1.39 vs consensus SEK1.51; in the near-term expects that the customer activity level will remain at the current level

        • -4.0% NCC.LN (NCC Group) -- H1 EPS 0.5p ex-items vs year-ago 2.5p

        • -3.8% ALCOX.FP (Nicox) -- Q4 revenue €1.3M vs year-ago €1.0M

        • -3.6% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy) -- FY Trading Update: revenue $202M vs FactSet $198.3M

        • -3.6% ESSITY.B.SS (Essity) -- Q4 Adj. EBITA SEK4.85B vs consensus SEK5.21B

        • -3.5% KETL.LN (Strix Group) -- FY adj PAT £20.1M; appoints Clare Foster as CFO

        • -3.3% TET.LN (Treatt) -- AGM Trading Update; Q1 revenues declined y/y as anticipated; notes encouraging signs that destocking trends are reversing

        • -3.3% SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa) -- Viceroy Research releases negative research report; the company is due to release Q4 earnings before the market opens tomorrow

        • -2.9% RS1.LN (RS Group) -- Q3 Trading Update: Like-for-like revenue change (10%)

        • -2.9% PUM.GR (Puma) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies; to neutral from outperform at Oddo; to hold from buy at Societe Generale

          • On earnings/updates: SRG.IM (Snam), DIA.SM (Distribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion), HFD.LN (Halfords Group), STMPA.FP (STMicroelectronics), WKP.LN (Workspace Group), GNC.LN (Greencore Group), KWS.LN (Keywords Studios), PARB.NO (Pareto Bank), TETY.SS (Tethys Oil) and reversing initial gains BWLPG.NO (BW LPG), ACC.NO (Aker Carbon Capture)

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Benelux: KBC Ancora (KBCA.BB), Warehouses De Pauw (WDP.BB), Signify (LIGHT.NA)

        • DACHs: Lonza (LONN.SW), Sartorius (SRT3.GR), SCHOTT Pharma & Co. (1SXP.GR)

        • France: Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.FP)

        • Nordics: Volvo (VOLV.B.SS), Telia Co. (TELIA.SS), Svenska Cellulosa (SCA.B.SS), HEXPOL (HPOL.B.SS), HMS Networks (HMS.SS), Cloetta (CLA.B.SS), Probi (PROB.SS), BHG Group (BHG.SS), Autoliv (ALIV.SS), Kone (KNEBV.FH), Elisa (ELISA.FH), Saga Furs (SAGCV.FH), Scatec (SCATC.NO)

      • Trading Update: Remy Cointreau (RCO.FP), WH Smith (SMWH.LN), Paragon Banking Group (PAG.LN), Record (REC.LN), StarragTornos (STGN.SW), SGS (SGSN.SW)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Sweden Dec PPI (7.7%) y/y vs consensus (6.0%), prior (4.2%)

      • Spain Dec PPI (6.3%) y/y vs consensus (7.3%), prior (7.4%)

      • Finland Dec unemployment rate 7.1% vs consensus 7.3%, prior 6.8%

      • Norway Dec unemployment rate 3.5% vs consensus 3.8%, prior revised 3.8% from 3.7%

      • France Jan business survey 99 vs consensus 100, prior revised 99 from 100

      • Germany Ifo survey

        • Business climate 85.2 vs consensus 86.7, prior revised 86.3 from 86.4

        • Current conditions 87.0 vs consensus 88., prior 88.5

        • Expectations 83.5 vs consensus 84.8, prior revised 84.2 from 84.3

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Mar 24): +$1.22 or +1.62% to $76.31

      • €-$ (0.0048) or (0.44%) to 1.0837

      • £-$ (0.0029) or (0.23%) to 1.2697

      • €-£ (0.0019) to 0.8536

      • S&P 500 +0.50%

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: (2.57%)

        • DAX: +0.92%

        • CAC: (1.03%)

        • MIB: (0.57%)

        • Stoxx 600: (0.08%)

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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