Jan 25 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open in negative territory amidst Asia equities mostly higher Thursday. US futures point to a bright start whilst US dollar carrying through positive overnight momentum, Asia currencies stable. Treasury yields mixed. Crude oil higher, industrial metals buoyed by more gains in copper, precious metals lower again post strong overnight data in the US.
On today's agenda, focus on interest rate announcements beginning with Norges Bank interest rate decision at 10:00CET, press conf 10:30, Turkey central bank interest rate decision 12:00CET and ECB interest rate decision 14:15CET, press conf 14:45CET. ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged and likely to say too early to be discussing rate cuts. Norges Bank is also expected to leave policy unchanged. Turkey's Central Bank is currently expected to leave interest rates unchanged, following the 250bps increase at the last meeting to 42.5%, though the inflation data at the beginning of the month may influence decision.
Central bank speakers include BOE's Cleland speech at 9:05GMT at City & Financial Global's Payments Regulation and Innovation Summit. In political developments, UK parliamentary business includes debate on the impact of the closure of high street banks on local communities, and the need for a national network of banking hubs in the Lords. In the meantime, Germany's President Steinmeier visits Thailand (through Fri).
Macroeconomic releases include: Germany Jan Ifo survey, France Jan business confidence, Switzerland Jan economic sentiment - ZEW, Spain Dec PPI, Sweden Dec PPI, Norway Dec unemployment rate, UK Jan distributive trades, CBI. Also, UK Dec car production is due and annual press conf at 10:00CET of the General Association of the German Insurance Industry (GDV). Elsewhere, Greece's IOBE publishes its latest Report on the Greek Economy.
In corporate news, Nokia (NOKIA.FH) reports Q4 comparable EPS €0.10 vs consensus €0.12, updates on 2026 targets and announces €600M buyback and guides FY24. Also out of the Nordics, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB.A.SS) reports Q4 numbers and initiates new SEK 1.75B buyback program. Essity (ESSITY.B.SS) and Gränges (GRNG.SS) are also out with Q4 earnings.
In France, Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP) reports prelim FY revenue €13.10B vs FactSet €13.09B and announces AI plan. Getlink (GET.FP) reports preliminary Q4 revenue €423M vs prior guidance €562 and reiterates its confidence in its ability to exceed EBITDA of €910M in 2023. Axway Software (AXW.FP) also announces preliminary annual results; exceeds organic growth and profitability guidance for the year.
Also due to report today are Atlas Copco (ATCO.A.SS), Sandvik (SAND.SS), LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP), IG Group Holdings (IGG.LN), Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ.LN) and NCC Group (NCC.LN).
Macro/Politics/World
ECB to hold interest rates as Lagarde beats back cut bets - Bloomberg
Inside the dissent roiling Lagarde's unhappy ECB - FT
Hinted tax cuts will be difficult in weak UK economy, IFS says - BBC
Inside the Tory plot to oust Rishi Sunak - Times
Georgia follows Putin's lead, new report says - Politico
French farmers block roads, urge help to safeguard livelihoods - Reuters
Rishi Sunak offers to sacrifice Brexit freedoms to re-establish government in Northern Ireland - msn.com
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Nordics
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- reports Q4 comparable EPS €0.10 vs consensus €0.12; announces €600M buyback and guides FY24
ESSITY.B.SS (Essity) -- reports Q4 Adj EPS SEK4.54 vs consensus SEK4.54
INTRUM.SS (Intrum) -- reports Q4 adj EPS SEK2.87 vs consensus SEK2.91
TETY.SS (Tethys Oil) -- expects to recognise $37M-47M impairment charge and exploration costs of $6.3M relating to Blocks 3&4 in Q4 2023
BILL.SS (Billerud) -- reports Q4 adjusted EPS (SEK0.41) vs FactSet SEK0.25 [6 est, (SEK0.65)-0.97]
SEB.A.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK4.03 vs consensus SEK4.25; announces total divi of SEK11.50/sh and SEK 1.75B buyback programme
NETC.DC (Netcompany Group) -- reports FY EPS DKK6.09 vs FactSet DKK8.97 [12 est, DKK7.30-12.06]; targets 2024 growth between +7-10%
XVIVO.SS (Xvivo Perfusion) -- reports Q4 revenue SEK155.7M vs FactSet SEK173.4M [4 est, SEK154.1-183M]
DACHs
GIVN.SW (Givaudan) -- reports FY net income CHF893M vs consensus CHF842M
EMMN.SW (Emmi) -- reports preliminary FY revenue CHF4.24B vs FactSet CHF4.27B
AERO.SW (Montana Aerospace) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €1.43B vs guidance for net sales in height of greater €1.5B and FactSet €1.54B [5 est, €1.50-1.60B]
Givaudan (GIVN.SW) -- reports FY net income CHF893M vs consensus CHF842M
Southern Europe
TOD.IM (Tod's) -- reports FY Sales €1.13B vs FactSet €1.12B
DIA.SM (Distribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion) -- reports Q4 revenue €2.27B, (29%) vs year-ago €3.22B
France
VETO.FP (Vetoquinol) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue €137.3M vs FactSet €136.3M [1 est]
VU.FP (VusionGroup) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue €238.2M vs FactSet €235.8M [2 est, €222.5-249M]; anticipates crossing the €1B milestone in restated sales in 2024 vs FactSet €1.04B
IDL.FP (ID Logistics Group) -- reports Q4 revenue €776.2M, +14% vs year-ago €678.1M
S30.FP (Solutions 30) -- reports Q4 revenue €285.7M, +15% vs year-ago €247.8M
ARAMI.FP (Aramis Group) -- reports Q1 revenue €527.0M vs year-ago €439.2M; reiterates FY24 outlook
PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe) -- reports prelim FY revenue €13.10B vs FactSet €13.09B [11 est, €12.99-13.15B]; announces AI plan
GET.FP (Getlink) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue €423M vs prior guidance €562
AXW.FP (Axway Software) -- announces preliminary annual results; exceeds organic growth and profitability guidance for the year
ALCOX.FP (Nicox) -- reports Q4 revenue €1.3M vs year-ago €1.0M
Benelux
NSI.NA (NSI NV) -- reports preliminary FY EPRA EPS €2.01 vs year-ago €2.15
M&A
ASY.FP (Assystem) -- sells 5% stake in Framatome to EDF S.A. for €205M
WIIT.IM (WIIT) -- agrees to acquire the Edge & Cloud business from German Edge Cloud GmbH & Co. KG for an initial €2.5M (post EU close 24-Jan)
ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- to acquire full ownership of Sunrise Wind subject to award in New York 4 offshore wind solicitation
TIGO.SS (Millicom International Cellular) -- subsidiary Tigo Colombia to sell ~1,100 wireless communications towers to KKR
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- EU Commission opens in-depth investigation into proposed acquisition of Air Europa by IAG
CA.FP (Carrefour) -- confirms acquisition of 31 stores from Intermarché
APPS.SM (Applus Services) -- Amber Equity considering the terms and conditions of its competing offer for Applus Services in light of the revised offer terms made by Manzana Spain Bidco
ELM.LN (Elementis) -- KPS Capital Partners said to have examined acquisition of Elementis, has since paused consideration -- Reuters
NSI.NA (NSI NV) -- sells Laanderpoort to ING for €24M
Other
SEB.A.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) -- initiates new SEK 1.75B buyback program running until next AGM on 19-Mar-24
SBMO.NA (SBM Offshore) -- CEO Bruno Chabas announces resignation, effective 12-Apr
Key rating changes
Upgrades
FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
BZU.IM (Buzzi SpA) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
Downgrades
PUM.GR (Puma) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
UCG.IM (UniCredit) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
MOWI.NO (Mowi) -- to hold from buy at Danske Bank
CAST.SS (Castellum AB) -- to hold from buy at Arctic Securities
Initiations
DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech) -- outperform at Bernstein
BRE.IM (Brembo) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
Other Actions
EAPI.FP (Euroapi) -- transferred hold at Deutsche Bank; prior rating was hold
KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen) -- resumed buy at Carnegie Securities
AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood) -- resumed hold at Danske Bank
Data
Nikkei +0.03% to 36236.47
Hang Seng +2.18% to 16246.77
Shanghai Composite +3.00% to 2905.32
S&P futures +2.0 vs prior close of 4898.0
€-$ (0.0000) or (0.00%) to 1.0884
$-¥ +0.21 or +0.14% to 147.72
€-¥ +0.22 or +0.14% to 160.79
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE