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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +1.52% to 7643.96, DAX +0.31% to 16959.94, CAC40 +2.31% to 7636.64, STOXX 600 +1.15% to 484.04

Jan 26 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets ended mostly in positive territory, with pan-European indices closing around session highs. France +2.3%, Switzerland +1.6% and FTSE100 +1.5% led the outperformers whilst Portugal (0.3%), Spain +0.2% and Germany +0.3% led the underperformers.

    • Market reaction leaned dovish after Thursday's ECB policy decision. Market pricing for April rate cut increased to 90% and 50 bps worth of easing seen for June. After leaving policy and guidance unchanged, President Lagarde said she stood by last week's comments on likelihood of a rate cut by summer. However, some of her other remarks more dovish than expected. Meanwhile, ECB published today its latest survey of professional forecasters, which showed downward revision in inflation outlook and cut in growth projections

    • From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, Eurozone M3 money supply growth surprised with positive reading in December. German GfK consumer confidence missed and follows downbeat German Ifo data, which points to another weak quarter. GfK noted both economic and income expectations as well as propensity to buy showed noticeable losses. Contrasting data for the UK showed consumer confidence at two-year high, marking the best January since 2022. Measure is still weak by historical standards below its 10-year average of -15 (Bloomberg).

    • In corporate news, Sartorius (SRT3.GR) reported FY EPS €4.94 vs FactSet €4.98; guided FY24 and issued FY28 outlook. Further in the DACH region, Lonza Group (LONN.SW) posted FY core EPS CHF12.39 vs consensus CHF13.43. SGS (SGSN.SW) saw its FY adjusted EPS CHF3.48 vs StreetAccount CHF3.57. Manz AG (M5Z.GR) lowered FY revenue guidance, now expected to be approximately at the previous year's level of €251.0M vs prior guidance increase in the lower double-digit percentage y/y.

    • Out of the Nordics, Elisa Oyj (ELISA.FH) posted Q4 Comparable EPS €0.61 ahead of FactSet €0.58. Telia Co (TELIA.SS) Q4 EPS (SEK0.73) vs consensus SEK0.30; 2024 Service revenue, like for like, estimated to grow by low single digits. Volvo (VOLV.B.SS) Q4 orders missed and cut guidance.

    • In France, Remy Cointreau (RCO.FP) reported Q3 revenue €319.9M vs consensus €322.1M, guided FY24 and confirmed FY29-30 objectives. Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.FP) FY EPS €4.19 ex-items vs FactSet €4.35. In the Netherlands, PostNL (PNL.NA) expects preliminary FY normalized EBIT €92M vs last guidance for low end of €100-130M range; FactSet EBIT €98.3M. Signify (LIGHT.NA) reported Q4 net income €59M vs consensus €104M.

    • In the UK, WH Smith (SMWH.LN) issued a H1 Trading Update including revenue +8% y/y, +5% LFL; said it is confident of another year of significant growth in 2024. Superdry (SDRY.LN) posted H1 adjusted EPS (26.5p) vs year-ago (11.2p) and expects FY results to reflect more challenging environment seen to-date. The company also announced Shaun Wills will step down as CFO.

    • On M&A front, Sole24Ore reported the Minister of Economy and Finance stated that the Italian government won't go below 35% stake in Poste Italiane (PST.IM). Saga (SAGA.LN) issued response to media coverage concerning its ocean cruises operation. Said the board is exploring opportunities to optimise Saga's operational and strategic position in Cruise. It has concluded that a partnership arrangement for Ocean Cruise would be consistent with Group strategy to move to a capital-light business model to support further growth and crystalise value, reduce debt and enhance long-term returns for shareholders.

    • The week ahead sees a meeting of EU Leaders, interest rate decisions in Sweden and the UK, Q4 preliminary GDPs, Jan flash CPIs from across the region as well as earnings from ABB (ABBN.SW), Roche (ROG.SW), Novartis (NOVN.SW), BNP Paribas (BNP.FP), Sanofi (SAN.FP), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC), Diageo (DGE.LN), GSK (GSK.LN) and Shell (SHEL.LN).

    • In political developments, first round of Finland's Presidential election takes place on Sunday (28th), with up to 75% of voters expected to cast ballots.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Persnl & HHold Goods +5.21%, Food & Beverage +2.48%, Autos & Parts +1.51%, Basic Resources +1.49%, Oil & Gas +1.38%, Health Care +1.35%, Chemicals +1.34%,

      • Underperformers

        • Utilities (0.84%), Technology (0.72%), Retail +0.38%, Media +0.43%, Telecom +0.47%, Insurance +0.56%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.56%, Financial Svcs +0.61%, Construct & Mtls +0.61%, Real Estate+0.72%, Banks +0.91%, Travel & Leisure +0.96%,

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • NATO

        • Turkey's Erdogan signs off on Sweden's NATO membership - Reuters

      • EU

        • Why the EU parliament's new liberal leader believes she can beat the far right - FT

        • EU threatens to silence Hungary if it blocks Ukrainian funds - Politico

      • ECB

        • ECB's Kazaks says worst mistake would be cutting too early - Bloomberg

        • ECB open to March pivot, possible June cut if data allow - Reuters

        • Estonia Central Bank's Müller says it is too early to talk about interest rate cuts - blog

        • Italy's central bank boss warns EU against 'weaponising' euro - FT

      • UK

        • UK Consumer confidence up three points to -19 in January - GfK

        • UK halts trade negotiations with Canada over hormones in beef ban - BBC

        • UK car industry warns of tariff risk from pause in Canada trade talks - Reuters

        • No clear alternative to Sunak as party leader among 2019 Tory voters, poll suggests - Sky

      • France

        • France's Le Pen questions ties to German AfD over extremist plan - Bloomberg

      • Germany

        • German government faces double-digit billion gap in 2025 budget - Reuters

      • Spain

        • Employment surge as Spain sees 780,000 new jobs created in past year - euronews

        • Commission proposes to hold a structured dialogue related to the Spanish National Council for the Judiciary - release

      • Greece

        • PM highlights Greek economic progress, reform commitment - ekathimerini

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +24.7% BHG.SS (BHG Group SEK15.77, +3.12) -- Q4 earnings

        • +18.7% DEX.GR (Delticom €2.48, +0.39) -- preliminary FY earnings

        • +17.6% LTG.LN (Learning Technologies Group £0.82, +0.12) -- FY trading update

        • +15.8% RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau €101.80, +13.88) -- Q3 revenue

        • +14.4% LONN.SW (Lonza Group CHF424.20, +53.20) -- FY earnings;appoints new chair

        • +13.3% MOR.GR (Morphosys €40.70, +4.77) -- circulation of comments attributed to Betaville cited

        • +12.7% MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton €772.10, +86.80) -- FY earnings

        • +9.8% MRN.FP (Mersen €33.70, +3.00) -- prelim FY revenue

        • +9.8% SRT3.GR (Sartorius €331.40, +29.50) -- FY earnings

        • +9.3% CRBN.NA (Corbion €19.60, +1.67) -- sells its emulsifiers business unit to Kingswood Capital Management for $362M

        • +9.1% SGSN.SW (SGS CHF81.72, +6.80) -- FY earnings; CEO to step down

        • +8.0% RIEN.SW (Rieter Holding CHF88.30, +6.60) -- Stifel upgrade

        • +7.9% IEG.IM (Italian Exhibition Group €3.98, +0.29) -- preliminary FY earnings

        • +7.5% SCATC.NO (Scatec NOK77.80, +5.45) -- Q4 earnings

        • +7.5% SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo €11.73, +0.82) -- FY revenue

        • +6.3% DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech €241.80, +14.30) -- FY earnings

        • +6.3% SAGA.LN (Saga Plc £1.56, +0.09) -- issues response to media coverage concerning its ocean cruises operation

        • +6.1% SFOR.LN (S4 Capital £0.43, +0.02) -- commences a share buyback program

        • +5.9% DEC.FP (JCDecaux €19.06, +1.06) -- Q4 revenue

        • +5.1% EFGN.SW (EFG International CHF10.96, +0.54) -- Citi upgrade

        • +4.4% KGX.GR (Kion Group €43.03, +1.80) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade

        • +4.2% REC.LN (Record £0.69, +0.03) -- Q3 trading update

        • +3.8% ANOT.SS (Anoto Group SEK0.30, +0.01) -- appoints Joonhee Won as new interim CEO

        • +3.2% M5Z.GR (Manz AG €10.36, +0.32) -- lower FY revenue guidance

        • +3.2% VSSAB.B.SS (Viking Supply Ships SEK94.20, +2.90) -- exercises put option regards two partly owned PSV-vessels; expects to book a related gain of ~$8.5M

        • +2.8% BC8.GR (Bechtle €49.98, +1.37) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade

        • +2.7% ATE.FP (Alten €143.20, +3.80) -- FY revenue

        • +2.6% ELISA.FH (Elisa Oyj €44.81, +1.15) -- Q4 earnings

        • +2.6% GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS €14.44, +0.36) -- deeper target of the Mopane-1X well discovered a significant column of light oil in reservoir-bearing sands

        • +1.5% BP.LN (BP £4.62, +0.07) -- enters into swap transaction with Equinor

        • +1.3% DNORD.DC (D/S Norden DKK372.80, +4.80) -- SEB upgrade

        • +1.0% VOLV.B.SS (Volvo SEK253.40, +2.45) -- Q4 earnings

      • Notable Decliners

        • -5.0% TLW.LN (Tullow Oil £0.33, -0.02) -- Stifel downgrade

        • -5.0% LIGHT.NA (Signify €28.60, -1.52) -- Q4 earnings

        • -3.9% DLG.IM (De'Longhi €29.86, -1.22) -- Q4 revenue

        • -3.6% ARCH.NO (Archer NOK0.86, -0.03) -- FY earnings

        • -3.6% TOBII.SS (Tobii SEK4.61, -0.17) -- ABG Sundal Collier downgrade

        • -2.5% STMPA.FP (STMicroelectronics €41.37, -1.04) -- Barclays downgrade

        • -2.3% OTB.LN (On The Beach Group £1.60, -0.04) -- AGM trading update

        • -2.2% TMV.GR (TeamViewer €13.40, -0.30) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade

        • -2.2% TKA.AV (Telekom Austria €7.88, -0.18) -- Erste Group downgrade

        • -2.0% PROB.SS (Probi SEK199.00, -4.00) -- Q4 earnings

        • -1.0% G24.GR (Scout24 €66.34, -0.64) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade

        • -1.0% HH.DC (H+H International DKK76.50, -0.80) -- SEB downgrade

        • -0.9% BAYN.GR (Bayer AG €32.34, -0.29) -- BofA downgrade

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • Earnings:

        • Benelux: Philips (PHIA.NA)

        • DACHs: Stabilus (STM.GR)

        • France: Eiffage (FGR.FP)

        • Nordics: Note (NOTE.SS)

        • Ireland: Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Denmark Dec Retail Sales +4.5% y/y vs consensus +5.9% and prior revised +6.1% from +6.3%

      • Germany Feb GfK Consumer Confidence (29.7) vs consensus (24.5) and prior revised (25.4) from (25.1)

      • Norway Dec Retail Sales (0.9%) m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.4%

      • Sweden Dec

        • Trade Balance SEK3.8B vs consensus SEK 12.0B and prior revised SEK12.1B from SEK 12.7B

        • Unemployment Rate 7.7% vs consensus 7.3% and prior 7.1%

      • France Jan Consumer Confidence 91 vs consensus 90 and prior 89

      • Eurozone Dec M3 Money Supply +0.1% vs consensus (0.7%) and prior (0.9%)

      • Spain Q4 Unemployment Rate 11.7% vs consensus 11.9% and prior 11.8%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Mar 24): ($0.71) or (0.92%) to $76.65

      • €-$ +0.0021 or +0.19% to 1.0869

      • £-$ +0.0016 or +0.13% to 1.2724

      • €-£ +0.0008 to 0.8544

      • S&P 500 +0.17%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: (1.15%)

        • DAX: +1.24%

        • CAC: +1.24%

        • MIB: +0.07%

        • Stoxx 600: +1.05%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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