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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.01%) to 7634.04, DAX (0.15%) to 16936.09, CAC40 +0.06% to 7638.85, STOXX 600 +0.19% to 484.78

Jan 29 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices have ended mixed, with Italy underperforming the region. In central banks news, divisions between hawks and doves within ECB's Governing Council becoming more evident. Banque de France chief Villeroy, a moderate dove, guided for rate cuts this year, suggesting any meeting is fair game. Official guidance from Lagarde is that rate cuts may only come in June, while Dutch central bank chief Knot, a known hawk, said wage data needed before cutting rates. Markets still discounting 20bp of easing by April, which must be considered live. If ECB staff projections revised lower, analysts suggest ECB may deliver April cut as data until then is plentiful including inflation, wages, profit margin/wage growth discussion. Furthermore, BoE set to leave policy on hold this week. In other research, a report from EY-Parthenon showed a number of UK firms that have issued profit warnings has surpassed the peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis, In its EY profit warnings monitor, in Q4 2023 listed companies issued 77 profit warnings and a third of those are from companies with annual revenue of over £1B, around double the average. Some 18.2% of listed companies issued a profit warning last year, above the 17.7% peak of 2008. Higher interest rates and fragile demand weighed. In addition, delays in spending were the cause of a quarter of profit warnings, with a fifth blamed on higher expenditure and borrowing costs. Firms in the consumer discretionary space accounted for 35% of all warnings in Q4. Over the year, industrial support companies issued the most warnings at 25, followed by retailers at 24.

    • Quiet start to the week for macro-data. Citi/YouGov survey showed UK inflation expectations declining. Fits in with notion of disinflation process gaining momentum despite upticks in December reading

    • On the reporting front, Philips (PHIA.NA) reported Q4, guided FY24 and also revealed a provision of €363M regarding an agreement with the FDA over a large-scale recall of ventilators; shares (2.5%) lower; in the DACH region, Wacker Chemie (WCH.GR) and Stabilus (STM.GR) posted their most recent numbers, whilst a Philadelphia jury ruled against Bayer (BAYN.GR), requiring the company to pay $2.25B in compensatory and punitive damages; also, Julius Baer Group (BAER.SW) will write off at least CHF400M related to Signa and Holcim (HOLN.SW) intends to list its North American business in the US; in France, Eutelsat Communications (ETL.FP) lowered FY guidance, whilst United CEO initiated a discussion with Airbus (AIR.FP) due to Boeing delays

    • Elsewhere, the UK government is seeking input for its next NatWest (NWG.LN) share sale whilst - still in the UK - activist Bluebell is pushing BP (BP.LN) to abandon its clean-energy commitments; also, Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID) reported Q3 numbers and narrowed FY PBT guidance; in Southern Europe, Grifols (GRF.SM) filed a lawsuit against Gotham City Research and Galp Energia (GALP.PL) released its Q4 update

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA.SM), KPS (KSC.GR), Kaufman & Broad (KOF.FP), Kesko (KESKOB.FH), Ambu (AMBU.B.DC), Tele2 (TEL2.B.SS), Nordnet (SAVE.SS), NCC (NCC.B.SS), Arjo (ARJO.B.SS), Jm (JM.SS), Diageo (DGE.LN), SEB (SK.FP), Elis (ELIS.FP), Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Safilo Group (SFL.IM), Pets At Home Group (PETS.LN), Luceco (LUCE.LN), Synthomer (SYNT.LN) and Saga (SAGA.LN) will be among few other companies expected to release updates whilst - on the CMD/events front - Assicurazioni Generali (G.IM) and WPP (WPP.LN) will hold CMS. On a busy macro-calendar, France Q4 preliminary GDP & Dec consumer spending, Switzerland Jan KOF leading indicators & Dec trade balance, Spain Q4 preliminary GDP & Jan preliminary CPI, Italy Q4 preliminary GDP & Dec PPI and Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP will be the main releases. Of note, Kantar's will release its latest UK grocery market share figures and update on inflation for the 12 weeks ending 21 January 2024

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Real Estate+1.06%, Oil & Gas +0.97%, Food & Beverage +0.66%, Health Care +0.55%, Basic Resources +0.45%, Travel & Leisure +0.42%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.30%, Autos & Parts +0.28%

      • Underperformers: Telecom (0.79%), Banks (0.51%), Financial Svcs (0.29%), Insurance (0.07%), Construct & Mtls (0.05%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.05%), Utilities (0.05%), Media (0.02%), Chemicals +0.09%, Technology +0.10%, Retail +0.16%

    • Macro:

      • Secret EU plan 'to sabotage Hungarian economy' revealed as anger mounts at Orbán (Guardian)

      • World Court to rule on jurisdiction in Russia-Ukraine genocide case (Reuters)

      • Russia Considers Extending Wartime Capital Controls (BBG)

      • French farmers block motorways around Paris in stand-off with government (F24)

      • German far right defeated in regional election (FT)

      • Italy's Meloni seeks new partnership with Africa, funds limited (Ansa and Reuters)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +12.6% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €3.79, +0.43) -- FDA acceptance for substantive review of PMA application for alfapump in recurrent or refractory ascites due to liver cirrhosis

        • +11.5% CHAR.LN (Chariot £0.09, +0.01) -- 2024 operational outlook

        • +11.2% NOTE.SS (NOTE SEK148.20, +15.00) -- Q4 earnings

        • +9.9% ACSO.LN (accesso Technology Group £5.66, +0.52) -- FY trading update

        • +7.1% ALPH.LN (Alpha Group International £15.85, +1.05) -- £20M buyback

        • +6.9% ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience SEK1.37, +0.08) -- mitazalimab OPTIMIZE-1 phase 2 results

        • +4.8% LHN.SW (Holcim CHF67.14, +3.06) -- new CEO; plans listing of its North American business in the US

        • +4.7% CHRT.LN (Cohort £5.76, +0.26) -- £15.1M contract

        • +4.3% RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings €19.40, +0.81) -- Q3 earnings; narrows FY PBT guidance

        • +4.2% GRF.SM (Grifols €9.95, +0.41) -- files lawsuit against Gotham City Research

        • +4.2% RLE.LN (Real Estate Investors £0.31, +0.01) -- FY trading & startegic update

        • +4.0% CRE.LN (Conduit Holdings £4.84, +0.19) -- FY income to be greater than current consensus forecasts

        • +2.7% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €325.80, +8.50) -- three-digit million-euro order

        • +2.3% APH.LN (Alliance Pharma £0.39, +0.01) -- FY trading update

        • +1.6% WIE.AV (Wienerberger €30.72, +0.48) -- intends to use 6.0M treasury shares

        • +1.4% WCH.GR (Wacker Chemie €101.85, +1.40) -- prelim FY23

        • +1.2% GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS €14.65, +0.17) -- Q4 trading update

        • +1.1% EBUS.NA (Ebusco Holding €4.10, +0.04) -- prelim FY23 and FY24 guidance

        • +1.0% BP.LN (BP £4.67, +0.05) -- Bluebell pushing BP to abandon clean-energy commitments - FT

        • +0.9% APPS.SM (Applus Services €11.12, +0.10) -- I Squared and TDR plan to raise offer for Applus - Expansion

        • +0.4% INCH.LN (Inchcape £6.93, +0.03) -- confirms it is reviewing strategic options for the UK Retail business

      • Notable Decliners

        • -30.1% SPEC.LN (Inspecs Group £0.61, -0.26) -- FY trading update; Peel Hunt downgrade

        • -14.0% ETL.FP (Eutelsat Communications €3.52, -0.58) -- cuts FY Guidance

        • -10.2% ACS.SM (ACS SA €36.09, -4.03) -- Spanish Supreme Court reportedly rejects most of the claim made by the concessionaire of the AP-7 highway

        • -9.1% HOT.GR (Hochtief €100.00, -9.95) -- Spanish Supreme Court reportedly rejects most of the claim made by the concessionaire of the AP-7 highway

        • -4.7% PHIA.NA (Koninklijke Philips €19.96, -0.98) -- Q4 earnings; agreement with the FDA over a large-scale recall of ventilators

        • -4.4% BAYN.GR (Bayer AG €30.64, -1.43) -- $2.25B glyphosate litigation award

        • -3.7% ALCAR.FP (Carmat €4.28, -0.17) -- completes €16.5M capital increase

        • -2.5% STAB1L.GR (Stabilus €62.60, -1.60) -- Q1 earnings

        • -2.4% EKF.LN (EKF Diagnostics Holdings £0.30, -0.01) -- FY trading update

        • -2.3% CLA.B.SS (Cloetta SEK18.42, -0.43) -- Handelsbanken downgrade

        • -1.7% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €4.37, -0.08) -- CEO tells about dealings with Daniel Kretinsky, Airbus - Challenges

        • -1.4% BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group CHF47.20, -0.69) -- to write off at least CHF400M related to Signa - SZ

        • -1.2% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo £0.84, -0.01) -- Ukrainian court of appeal confirms ~$125M claim against Ukrainian subsidiary

        • -1.1% FIA1S.FH (Finnair €0.04, -0.00) -- strike

        • -1.1% MRK.GR (Merck KGaA €154.65, -1.75) -- chairman Wolfgang Büchele to step down

        • -0.8% INRN.SW (Interroll Holding CHF2,430.00, -20.00) -- prelim. FY revenue

        • -0.4% NWG.LN (NatWest Group £2.24, -0.01) -- UK government seeks City input for NatWest share sale, eyeing March announcement - Bloomberg

        • -0.1% AIR.FP (Airbus SE €149.10, -0.16) -- United CEO initiates discussions with Airbus due to Boeing delays - Reuters

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • DACHs: KPS (KSC.GR)

      • France: Kaufman & Broad (KOF.FP), Groupe Partouche (PARP.FP)

      • Nordics: Kesko (KESKOB.FH), Ambu (AMBU.B.DC), Tele2 (TEL2.B.SS), Nordnet (SAVE.SS), NCC (NCC.B.SS), Arjo (ARJO.B.SS), Jm (JM.SS), RVRC Holding (RVRC.SS), Nordic Paper Holding (NPAPER.SS)

      • Southern Europe: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA.SM)

      • UK: Diageo (DGE.LN), SThree (STEM.LN)

      • Trading Update: SEB (SK.FP), Elis (ELIS.FP), Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Eurobio-Scientific (ALERS.FP), Balyo (BALYO.FP), Safilo Group (SFL.IM), Pets At Home Group (PETS.LN), Luceco (LUCE.LN), Synthomer (SYNT.LN), Saga (SAGA.LN), Diaceutics (DXRX.LN)

      • CMD/events: Assicurazioni Generali (G.IM), WPP (WPP.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Ireland Dec Retail Sales +3.9% y/y vs consensus (0.5%) and prior revised +1.1% from +0.8%

      • Belgium Q4 Preliminary GDP +1.6% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior +1.4%

      • Sweden

        • Q4 Preliminary GDP 0.0% y/y vs consensus (2.0%) and prior (1.4%); +0.1% q/q vs consensus +0.3% and prior (0.3%)

        • Dec Retail Sales (2.2%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior (1.7%); (0.2%) m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior (0.5%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Mar 24): ($0.99) or (1.27%) to $77.02

      • €-$ (0.0042) or (0.39%) to 1.0805

      • £-$ (0.0028) or (0.22%) to 1.2675

      • €-£ (0.0014) to 0.8525

      • S&P 500 +0.06%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: (1.28%)

        • DAX: +1.10%

        • CAC: +1.27%

        • MIB: (0.49%)

        • Stoxx 600: +1.21%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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