Jan 31 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity futures point to a mixed open following a positive close on Tuesday. Another mixed session for Asian markets. Nikkei and ASX higher, but another downbeat session for China markets. US equity futures weaker with S&P down 0.4%. Bonds firmer, leaving US 10-year 3 bps lower at 4.02%. Dollar firmer. Oil down. Gold up. Industrial metals mixed.
In the UK, Chancellor Hunt playing down expectations for tax cuts after IMF calls on government to shore up public finances rather than focus on pre-election giveaways. After MPs questions on Wales, there's the weekly PMQs at 12noon GMT, whilst Home Secretary James Cleverly is before a committee at 9:30, with other committee topics including The Steel Industry in Wales (9:30, CEO Tata Steel), What did the UK achieve for global climate at COP28? (14:15) and EU Entry/Exit and the UK border (14:30).
In central banks, Bundesbank's Balz speech at 19:00CET at event at representative office in Riga as well as US Fed's interest rate decision after EU markets close. Weltmarktführer 2024 conf speakers include Fresenius SE & Co. (FRE.GR) CEO 9:15CET, Finance minister Lindner 16:30.
Macro data focus shifts to preliminary CPI releases after yesterday's Q4 GDP updates, which saw German GDP contract, but better readings from Italy and Spain. More upbeat survey data from the UK, with Lloyds monthly business confidence index reporting the highest level for January in eight years. On the macro front, Germany Jan unemployment change, preliminary CPI, Dec retail sales, Switzerland Jan economic sentiment index, Dec retail sales, France Jan preliminary CPI, Dec PPI, Spain Dec retail sales, Italy Dec unemployment rate, Denmark Dec unemployment rate, Netherlands Dec retail sales, Greece Nov retail sales, Belgium Dec PPI, Ireland Jan preliminary CPI and Portugal Jan preliminary CPI.
A busy morning for earnings kicked off with results from DACHs region companies Novartis (NOVN.SW) reporting Q4 core EPS $1.53 vs consensus $1.60, hiking divi by 3.1%, FY24 and updating medium-term forecast and ATOSS Software (AOF.GR) reporting FY EPS €4.50 vs FactSet €4.02 and expecting FY24 revenues of €170M vs FactSet €169.9M. In the Nordics, Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) reported Q4 EPS DKK4.91 vs consensus DKK4.65, hiked divi by ~52%, announced a DKK20B buyback and guides FY24. Company also issued Strategic Aspirations 2025 and sees more than DKK 25B in Obesity sales by 2025. Also out with Q4 results from the Nordics are SSAB (SSAB.A.SS), SKF (SKF.B.SS), DNB (DNB.NO), Wartsila (WRT1V.FH) and Holmen (HOLM.B.SS). In Southern Europe, Banco Santander (SAN.SM) reported Q4 underlying net income attributable €2.93B vs FactSet €2.65B and Safilo Group (SFL.IM) is out with preliminary FY revenue €1.02B vs FactSet €1.02B. Elsewhere, Corbion (CRBN.NA) presented strategic development update on 'Advance 2025' in connection with its CMD and introduced updated targets for the 2024-25 and reported prelim. FY earnings. SEB (SK.FP) reported Q4 revenue €2.47B vs FactSet €2.51B.
Politics/Macro/World News
UK businesses start 2024 with confidence at two-year high - Lloyds
ECB's Lagarde Says Wage Data Are 'Critically Important' - Bloomberg
ECB has tamed the inflation 'beast', policymaker Nagel says - Reuters
Britain set to deploy aircraft carrier to Red Sea - Telegraph
Spain congress votes against Catalan separatists amnesty bill - BBC
Netherlands Dec Retail Sales +4.2% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and prior +3.2%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Benelux:
CRBN.NA (Corbion) -- presents strategic development update on 'Advance 2025'; introduces updated targets for the 2024-25; releases prelim. FY earnings - CMD
DACHs:
CAI.AV (CA Immobilien Anlagen) -- expects net property revaluation loss for financial year 2023 of around €530M
AOF.GR (ATOSS Software) -- reports FY EPS €4.50 vs FactSet €4.02 [5 est, €3.84-4.11]; expects FY24 revenues of €170M vs FactSet €169.9M
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- reports Q4 core EPS $1.53 vs consensus $1.60; hikes divi by 3.1%; guides FY24 and updates medium-term forecast
VATN.SW (Valiant Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF144.3M vs FactSet CHF162.9M
SHF.GR (SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner) -- expects FY EBIT of around €11M vs guidance at the upper range of €5-10M or even slightly higher
CLIQ.GR (Cliq Digital) -- reports preliminary FY EBITDA €50M vs FactSet €52.1M [6 est, €50.5-53.8M]
MRX.GR (Mister Spex) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €223M vs FactSet €224.2M [6 est, €223-226.3M]
France:
SK.FP (SEB) -- reports Q4 revenue €2.47B vs FactSet €2.51B [2 est, €2.48-2.53B]
ELIS.FP (Elis) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €4.31B vs FactSet €4.32B [10 est, €4.30-4.35B]
LHYFE.FP (Lhyfe) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €1.3M vs FactSet €1.0M
Nordics:
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) --
reports Q4 EPS DKK4.91 vs consensus DKK4.65; hikes divi by ~52%, announces DKK20B buyback and guides FY24
issues Strategic Aspirations 2025; sees more than DKK 25B in Obesity sales by 2025
SSAB.A.SS (SSAB) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK1.86 vs FactSet SEK1.49 [11 est, SEK0.80-1.95]
SKF.B.SS (SKF) -- reports Q4 adj EPS SEK3.57 vs consensus SEK3.54; hikes divi by ~7%; guides Q1 and FY24
DNB.NO (DNB Bank) -- reports Q4 EPS NOK5.93 vs consensus NOK5.90
WRT1V.FH (Wartsila) -- reports Q4 EPS €0.16 vs consensus €0.23
BRG.NO (Borregaard) -- reports Q4 EPS NOK1.19 vs FactSet NOK0.99 [5 est, NOK0.78-1.14]
RILBA.DC (Ringkjøbing Landbobank) -- reports FY net income DKK2.16B vs guidance DKK1.80B-2.2B vs FactSet DKK 2.12B
ELAN.B.SS (Elanders) -- reports Q4 adjusted EPS SEK3.41 vs year-ago SEK5.11
LOOMIS.SS (Loomis) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK4.40 vs FactSet SEK6.19 [3 est, SEK5.24-7.55]
MUSTI.FH (Musti Group) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.17 vs FactSet €0.27 [3 est, €0.26-0.28]
HOLM.B.SS (Holmen) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK3.4 vs FactSet SEK3.97 [5 est, SEK3.73-4.20]; raises ordinary dividend +6.3% y/y, proposes extra dividend
Southern Europe:
SAN.SM (Banco Santander) -- reports Q4 underlying net income attributable €2.93B vs FactSet €2.65B [11 est, €2.16-2.90B]
SFL.IM (Safilo Group) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €1.02B vs FactSet €1.02B [5 est, €1.02-1.03B]
UK:
OKEY.LN (O'Key Group) -- reports prelim Q4 Net Retail Revenue RUB58.46B year-ago RUB55.59B
ALL.LN (Atlantic Lithium) -- reports Q2 net cash used in operating activities (A$4.5M) - Appendix 5B
IPO.LN (IP Group) -- expects year-and NAV per share between 111-117 pence
M&A
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- Italian government and KKR said to reach agreement on terms of proposed offer for Telecom Italia's Sparkle unit -- Reuters
AC.FP (Accor) -- Travel + Leisure agrees to acquire Accor's vacation ownership business for $48.4M (~€44.6M)
ALATA.FP (Atari, Inc.) -- completes $2M investment in tinyBuild
PPT.AU (Perpetual) -- PE firms prepping bids for Perpetual units - Australian Financial Review
PMI.LN (Premier Miton Group) -- completes acquisition of Tellworth Investments
Healthcare
SOBI.SS (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum) -- to present new data at EAHAD 2024
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) -- submits sBLA to U.S. FDA seeking approval of DARZALEX FASPRO (daratumumab and hyaluronidase-fihj)-based regimen for the treatment of patients with transplant-eligible, newly diagnosed multiple myeloma
ADCT (ADC Therapeutics) -- NICE recommends ADC's Zynlonta to treat relapsed or refractory DLBCL and HGBL after two or more systemic treatments
SDZ.SW (Sandoz Group) -- to launch first biosimilar for multiple sclerosis Tyruko (natalizumab) in Germany from 1-Feb
ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics) -- enters into ATM sales agreement for up to $2.15M of ADSs through H.C. Wainwright - 424B5
Other
BRNK.GR (Branicks Group) -- signs long-term lease with expanding themed restaurant operator KoKoNo GmbH at HELIO in Augsburg
IHG.LN (InterContinental Hotels Group) -- IHG Hotels & Resorts re-enters Swedish market with the signing of voco Stockholm Kista
VIV.FP (Vivendi) -- provides update on the study of the split project; supervisory board approves proposal to structure the split around four entities
UMG.NA (Universal Music Group) -- agreement with TikTok to expire on 31-Jan
NEX.FP (Nexans) -- announces French Competition Authority is carrying out searches at three sites in France today
DEC.FP (JCDecaux) -- wins advertising concession of Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport in China
LOOMIS.SS (Loomis) -- Loomis' board resolves to repurchase shares for up to SEK 200M
PRS.SM (Promotora de Informaciones) -- announces extraordinary conversion period for convertible notes due 2028 (post EU close 30-Jan)
Bystronic CEO Alex Waser to retire; Domenico Iacovelli named successor, effective 1-Jul
Key rating changes
Upgrades
Jefferies upgrades ELM.LN, SPX.LN, XPP.LN; downgrades ABDP.LN, VCT.LN
UCB.BB (UCB) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
Downgrades
RAA.GR (Rational) -- underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
ERIC.B.SS (Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson) -- to sell from neutral at UBS
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
MGAM.LN (Morgan Advanced Materials) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies (timing uncertain)
INSTAL.SS (Instalco) -- to hold from buy at Carnegie Securities
Data
Nikkei +0.61% to 36286.71
Hang Seng (1.37%) to 15487.92
Shanghai Composite (1.02%) to 2801.56
S&P futures (22.0) vs prior close of 4951.0
€-$ (0.0027) or (0.25%) to 1.0817
$-¥ +0.29 or +0.20% to 147.88
€-¥ (0.14) or (0.09%) to 159.96
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