Feb 01 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open in negative territory amidst Asian equities trading mixed Thursday. US futures higher whilst US dollar stronger, recapturing overnight losses, weakness in AUD, relative strength in NZD after hawkish comments from the RBNZ. Treasury yields mixed. Crude oil bouncing from week lows, precious and industrial metals slightly lower. Cryptocurrencies under pressure.
Focus on central banks with policy decisions from Riksbank and BOE. Riksbank is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged when announces policy decision at 9:30CET, with the potential for more dovish language. Also no change expected in the BOE's benchmark interest rate when decision announced at 12noon GMT, with a still cautious outlook on inflation seen in the MPC minutes that will be released at the same time.
Also on today's agenda, OPEC+ JMMC meeting and special European Council. The mid-term revision of EU long-term budget 2021-27 will be discussed by European leaders including the new financial aid to Ukraine. EU's McGuinness speech at the 21st Annual European Financial Services Conf. Weltmarktführer 2024 conf speakers include CEWE Stiftung CEO (CWC.GR) 12:40CET, Hapag-Lloyd CDO (HLAG.GR) 13:15. France, Italy and Spain Jan new car registrations are due to be released.
Macroeconomic updates today include: Greece, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland Jan manufacturing PMIs and final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany and UK, Italy Jan preliminary CPI, Netherlands Jan preliminary CPI, UK Jan house price index - Nationwide, Austria Jan preliminary CPI, unemployment rate, Eurozone Jan preliminary CPI, Dec unemployment rate, Greece Dec unemployment rate.
In corporate news, ING Groep (INGA.NA) reports Q4 net income €1.56B vs consensus €1.50B and proposed a final dividend of €0.756/share vs year-ago €0.39/share. In the DACH region, Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) Q4 net income €1.26B vs consensus €833M; plans to increase both buybacks and dividends by at least 50%. Company also updates on Global Hausbank strategy and 2025 targets and proposes FY25 dividend of €1.00/share. Roche Holding (ROG.SW) reports FY Core EPS CHF18.57 vs FactSet CHF18.43. Siemens Healthineers (SHL.GR) reports Q1 EPS €0.49 ex-items vs consensus €0.44
Out of the Nordics, Evolution (EVO.SS) posted Q4 EPS €1.32 in line with FactSet. Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS) reports Q4 EPS SEK1.04 vs FactSet SEK1.51. DSV A/S (DSV.DC) reports Q4 net income DKK2.94B vs consensus DKK2.86B, hikes divi by ~7.7% and announces DKK1.00B buyback. Tobii (TOBI.SS) reports FY EPS (SEK1.87) vs FactSet (SEK1.60) and expects to deliver a significantly improved EBIT result in 2024.
In France, BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) released Q4 earnings along with a cash dividend proposal of €4.60/share. Dassault Systemes (DSY.FP) reports Q4 non-IFRS EPS €0.36 vs consensus €0.37. Sanofi (SAN.FP) reports Q4 Business EPS €1.66 vs consensus €1.70 and appoints prior Nestlé CFO François-Xavier Roger as new CFO. In Spain, Banco de Sabadell (SAB.SM) reports Q4 attributable net profit €304M vs FactSet €283.4M
Politics/Macro/World News
How Orbán's intransigence has pushed the EU's patience to breaking point - FT
EU leaders enter showdown with Viktor Orbán over €50B Ukraine package - Guardian
In shadow of Trump, Putin and Orbán, EU struggles to get its act together on Ukraine - Politico
European farmers step up protests against costs, green rules - Reuters
PM Meloni wants middle classes to shield Italy from bond vigilantes - Bloomberg
Netherlands Jan preliminary CPI +3.2% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and prior +1.2%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- reports FY Core EPS CHF18.57 vs FactSet CHF18.43 [19 est, CHF17.44-19.94]
ADS.GR (Adidas) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €21.43B vs FactSet €21.56B [28 est, €20.86-21.83B]
ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.50 vs consensus $0.47
WAF.GR (Siltronic) -- reports preliminary FY EBIT €231M vs FactSet €230.5M [10 est, €201.9-241.4M]
COTN.SW (COMET Holding) -- reports preliminary FY revenue CHF397.5M vs prior guidance CHF380-400M and FactSet CHF385.3M [6 est, CHF379.0-392.9M]
GURN.SW (Gurit Holding) -- reports preliminary FY revenue CHF459.9M vs FactSet CHF467.4M [6 est, CHF461.5-476M]
C3RY.GR (Cherry) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue ~€38M vs FactSet €36.8M [1 est]
ATS.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik) -- reports Q3 EPS (€1.19) vs year-ago (€0.20)
DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank) -- reports Q4 net income €1.26B vs consensus €833M; plans to increase both buybacks and dividends by at least 50%
updates on Global Hausbank strategy and 2025 targets; proposes FY25 dividend of €1.00/share
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- reports FY Core EPS CHF18.57 vs FactSet CHF18.43 [19 est, CHF17.44-1
SHLTN.SW (SHL Telemedicine) -- TELE-ACS trial results selected for presentation at ACC 24
OMV.AV (OMV) -- reports Q4 Clean CCS Net Income attributable €665M vs consensus €481M
France
DSY.FP (Dassault Systemes) -- reports Q4 non-IFRS EPS €0.36 vs consensus €0.37; guides Q1 and FY24
KOF.FP (Kaufman & Broad) -- reports FY net income €60.2M vs FactSet €59.5M [5 est, €58.4-60.9M]
VLTSA.FP (Voltalia) -- reports Q4 revenue €170.0M, +20% vs year-ago €142.0M
MEDCL.FP (MedinCell) -- Teva provided guidance for UZEDY in 2024 and update on treatment-candidate of Olanzapine LAI
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- reports Q4 net income attributable €1.07B unclear if comparable to consensus €1.75B
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- reports Q4 Business EPS €1.66 vs consensus €1.70
Benelux
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- reports Q4 net income €1.56B vs consensus €1.50B
Nordics
AXFO.SS (Axfood) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK2.42 vs year-ago SEK1.62
PROT.NO (Protector Forsikring) -- reports Q4 net income NOK675.8M vs FactSet NOK379M [3 est, NOK324-429M]; to distribute NOK 5.00 per share special dividend
ENEA.SS (Enea) -- reports Q4 EPS from cont ops SEK0.60 vs year-ago SEK1.81
VOLAR.B.SS (Volvo Car) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK1.04 vs FactSet SEK1.51 [5 est, SEK1.32-1.66]; for 2024 expects a higher y/y growth rate in retail sales than in 2023
TOBII.SS (Tobii) -- reports FY EPS (SEK1.87) vs FactSet (SEK1.60) [4 est, (SEK1.78)-(1.17)]
MTRS.SS (Munters Group) -- confirms previously reported Q4 results posted in advance due to a ransomware attack
DSV.DC (DSV A/S) -- reports Q4 net income DKK2.94B vs consensus DKK2.86B; guides FY24, hikes divi by ~7.7% and announces DKK1.00B buyback
Southern Europe
OVS.IM (OVS) -- provides FY23 preview; expects slight y/y increase in adj. EBITDA
MFEB.IM (MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE) -- MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE's Mediaset reports 2023 advertising revenues in Italy +2.1% y/y
SAB.SM (Banco de Sabadell) -- reports Q4 attributable net profit €304M vs FactSet €283.4M [9 est, €248-325M]
M&A
ASRNL.NA (ASR Nederland) -- BAWAG Group to acquire Knab from ASR Nederland for consideration of €510M payable at closing
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- CEO Carlos Tavares preparing for era of auto-industry consolidation; questions Renault's strategy and scale - Bloomberg
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- confirms receipt of offer from Ministry of Economy and Finance for acquisition of Sparkle; terms undisclosed
G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- completes acquisition of Liberty Seguros from Liberty Mutual
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- SoftwareONE to acquire Medalsoft; terms undisclosed
VAR.NO (Vår Energi) -- completes acquisition of Neptune Energy's Norwegian oil and gas assets
GLJ.GR (GRENKE) -- announces intention to sell factoring companies
EPR.NO (Europris) -- to exercise option for remaining 80% of Runsvengruppen/ÖoB
GMAA.LN (Gama Aviation) -- agrees to purchase the business of Specialist Aviation Services
Healthcare
GLPG.NA (Galapagos) -- completes previously announced transaction to transfer Jyseleca (filgotinib) business to Alfasigma S.p.A.
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Genentech Vabysmo New Long-Term Data shows sustained detinal drying and vision improvements in retinal vein occlusion (RVO)
ALSEN.FP (Sensorion) -- announces recruitment of the patient in its Phase 2a clinical trial of SENS-401 for residual hearing preservation in adult patients following cochlear implantation
Other
BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group) -- deputy CEO Nic Dreckmann to replace Philipp Rickenbacher as CEO - FT
BALN.SW (Baloise) -- enters into a reinsurance transaction of its Belgian life business with RGA International
AXFO.SS (Axfood) -- to accelerate the pace of its phase-out of fossil fuels
DOKA.SW (dormakaba Holding) -- has started operating three photovoltaic power plants in the last three months
NEOEN.FP (Neoen) -- begins construction of 93.9 MW Isbillen Power Reserve in Sweden
DSV.DC (DSV) -- announces Jens H. Lund to assume new CEO position on 1-Feb
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- appoints prior Nestlé CFO François-Xavier Roger as new CFO effective 1-Apr
Key rating changes
Upgrades
EZJ.LN (EasyJet) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
SSAB.A.SS (SSAB) -- to hold from sell at Pareto
Downgrades
CFR.SW (Richemont) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
GIVN.SW (Givaudan) -- to neutral from outperform at Davy (timing uncertain)
NXT.LN (Next) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
ENEL.IM (Enel) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
BYIT.LN (Bytes Technology Group) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
SAF.FP (Safran) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
Data
Nikkei (0.76%) to 36011.46
Hang Seng +0.51% to 15564.38
Shanghai Composite (0.51%) to 2774.33
S&P futures +9.5 vs prior close of 4870.5
€-$ (0.0016) or (0.15%) to 1.0802
$-¥ (0.07) or (0.05%) to 146.85
€-¥ (0.33) or (0.21%) to 158.62
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