Feb 02 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mostly higher Friday with the exception, once again, of China's markets that fell sharply although off their lows after likely 'national team' intervention. Solid gains elsewhere including in Japan, Taiwan and Australia, the latter of which ended at fresh record highs. South Korea biggest gainer with more advances in its deep value stocks including HMC, Southeast Asia also higher, India trading higher. US futures up, European bourses opened with strong gains. US dollar DXY index trading around 103 level, Asia currencies generally stronger. Treasury yields higher across tenors, South Korea 10Y yield declined to month-long low after inflation data. Crude futures higher, precious metals supported by Treasury's overnight rally, industrials mixed.
Asia markets carrying on their recent pattern of gains across the region, but more losses in China. The Shanghai Composite fell sharply in the early afternoon to trade 4% lower at one point before rallying, almost certainly supported by "National Team" state-owned fund buying. The Hang Seng traded almost 2% higher in early trade before falling steadily and closing lower, with the index again testing 15.5K. Seemingly no end in sight for Greater China's stock selloff as strategists continue to say there will be no meaningful rally until a solution for its property sector is found.
Other markets reacted positively to post US market results with Meta and Amazon comfortably beating estimates. Ahead tonight, US non-farm payrolls, which is expected to show a further drop in headline unemployment growth. In regional developments, South Korea CPI slowed to a six-month low but the BOK later warned of a temporary rebound in inflation on geopolitical tensions. Australian PPI inflation rebounded on continued growth in construction costs. Indian interim budget takeaways highlighted fiscal restraint, lower borrowing and higher capex.
China Renaissance (1911.HK) CEO Bao Fan re-emerged after a year's absence and resigned from his position; stock remained suspended. WuXi AppTec (2359.HK) and WuXi Biologics (2269.HK) shares down sharply again in Hong Kong on renewed fears the companies are set to be added to a US sanctions list. Adani Enterprises (512599.IN) quarterly profit nearly doubled as earnings from new businesses spiked. Reliance Industries (500325.IN) and Bodhi Tree Multimedia (543767.IN) will take a 60% stake in a merger with Disney India, according to reports.
Digest:
China remains a challenge for Apple:
Apple (AAPL) Q1 earnings facing early scrutiny after revenue guidance underwhelmed expectations and China market continued to lag (Bloomberg). Overall revenue rose a better-than-expected 2.1% y/y in Q1 - first y/y increase in five quarters. However, revenue down 13% in China and missing analyst estimates. CEO Tim Cook told Reuters FX-adjusted China iPhone sales down mid-single digits over the quarter. While China's weak economy has dampened consumer demand, analysts highlighted loss of market share to rival Huawei following rollout of Mate 60 Pro last year and growth in foldables segment where Apple is not active. Company also facing headwinds from Beijing's attempts to reduce reliance on foreign technology after Bloomberg reported in December that China extended iPhone ban to more agencies and government-backed firms. China headwinds led AAPL to offer rare iPhone discount in January as part of promotion ahead of Lunar New Year (Reuters).
China local government work reports emphasize consumption growth:
Xinhua summarized provincial government work reports which emphasized commitments to foster new growth drivers. Noted all regions have announced 2024 growth targets ranging between 4.5% and 8% with the majority of projections above 5% (recall market expectations of a nationwide growth target will be kept at around 5%). Description of economic policy goals contained frequent mentions of "new productive forces," "boosting consumption" and "improving business environment." Reports pointed to ongoing transition toward high-quality economic growth and a greater reliance on the domestic market as China shifts focus from post-pandemic recovery to sustained expansion. The term 'new productive forces' to be essentially centered on scientific and technological advancement to develop emerging industries. Almost all regions highlighted the task of boosting consumption this year after the Central Economic Work Report pledged to expand domestic demand for the past two years. Recall that market criticism of ineffective policy support measures to date included a lack of policies to directly stimulate consumer demand.
Banking exposure to US commercial real estate jolts credit markets:
This week's banking developments reviving discussions about risks tied to faltering US commercial real estate (FT). Most of the attention has been on New York Community Bancorp after it ramped up US CRE loan loss provisions and posted surprise quarterly loss. Regional US banks have fallen sharply with KRX down 8% in past two sessions. In Europe, Deutsche Bank more than quadrupled US CRE loan loss provisions while in Asia, Aozora Bank down more than 30% since Wednesday after guiding FY loss due to US CRE exposure. Some analysts downplayed contagion risks, pointing to idiosyncratic factors. Others viewed developments as evidence of rising stress while Goldman Sachs recommended investors bolster credit hedges. Developments blamed for some of the recent volatility in bond markets. Bloomberg noted corporate spreads on track for largest weekly rise since early October. Bond yields have also fallen sharply as traders unwound bearish positions (Bloomberg).
Foreign investors turned net sellers of Japan equities last week:
Reuters cited TSE data showing foreign investors sold net JPY574.94B ($3.9B) in Japanese equities last week, the biggest outflow since October last year. Entirely driven by sales of JPY985.47B in derivatives and highly concentrated in Topix futures (JPY904.56B). Outweighed net purchases of JPY410.52B in cash equities marking the fourth straight week of inflows. Article noted the retreat in benchmarks last week following the hawkish tilt by BOJ Governor Ueda. Nikkei offered a more upbeat take as cash inflows attest to foreigners' continued optimism on the market. Elsewhere, individual investors turned net buyers for the first time in seven weeks on margin trading. Some thoughts retail investors were dip-buying as the market faded later in the week. NISA flows were also mentioned, though not seen as large enough to push the market higher. Recall that NISA optimism emerged as a bullish theme late last year in anticipation that enhancements effective from January would attract more real money from individuals.
Japan capex hampered by labor shortages:
Nikkei top story discussed disruptions to Japan capital spending plans as labor shortages limit investment throughput adding to constraints from high material costs. Noted BOJ Tankan projections pointed to 15% growth in FY23 among all enterprises, though MOF data showed actual spending in H1 FY23 rose only 3.9%, leaving the widest gap since 2011 in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami. Moreover, productivity investments aimed at addressing staff shortages have also been stalled by lack of workers, though a BOJ paper published in December found software spending has grown more than twice as fast among understaffed companies than among those that had enough workers with particular interest among labor-intensive service businesses such as hotels and restaurants. According to the Cabinet Office, time required to process machinery orders stretched to the 14-month range as of November, the longest since 2010. Postponed investments expected to be realized eventually, though a BOJ official noted this is conditional on future growth expectations and expressed concern that such projects may end up being scrapped.
Notable Gainers:
+47.5% 9939.HK (Kintor Pharmaceutical): receives NMPA clearance for phase Ib/III clinical trial of KX-826 and minoxidil combination for treatment of male AGA
+21.7% 3659.JP (NEXON Co.): game Dungeon & Fighter receives approval in China
+9.7% 4902.JP (Konica Minolta): reports Q3 revenue ¥289.21B vs FactSet ¥288.35B, operating profit ¥7.78B vs FactSet ¥6.15B
+9.4% 035420.KS (NAVER): reports Q4 operating profit KRW405.50B vs StreetAccount KRW398.72B
+6.5% 251270.KS (Netmarble): game The King of Fighters All Star receives approval in China
+1.6% 361610.KS (Sk Ie Technology Co.): reports Q4 operating profit KRW26.88B vs year-ago (KRW10.30B) and FactSet KRW8.63B
+0.1% 6752.JP (Panasonic): to buy 40% stake in INNOVA; terms undisclosed
Notable Decliners:
-5.2% 7211.JP (Mitsubishi Motors): reports Q3 revenue ¥733.1B vs StreetAccount ¥721.33B, operating income ¥55.9B vs StreetAccount ¥61.69B
-3.4% 2811.JP (Kagome): reports FY revenue ¥224.73B vs guidance ¥222.00B and core operating income ¥19.48B vs guidance ¥16.00B
-2.7% 7205.JP (Hino Motors): reports Q3 net income attributable (¥10.3B) vs FactSet (¥2.20B)
Data:
Economic:
Australia
December housing finance (4.1%) m/m vs +1.0% in November
Q4 PPI +0.9% q/q vs +1.8% in Q3
PPI 4.1% y/y vs +3.8% in Q3
South Korea January
CPI +2.8% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and +3.2% in prior month
CPI ex-food & energy +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and +2.8% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 146.56 or +0.41% to 36158.02
Hang Seng: (32.65) or (0.21%) to 15533.56
Shanghai Composite: (40.59) or (1.46%) to 2730.15
Shenzhen Composite: (46.05) or (2.99%) to 1491.70
ASX200: 111.20 or +1.47% to 7699.40
KOSPI: 72.85 or +2.87% to 2615.31
SENSEX: 394.50 or +0.55% to 72039.80
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.16 or +0.11% to 146.5890
$-KRW: (6.48) or (0.49%) to 1323.2900
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.34% to 0.6594
$-INR: (0.09) or (0.11%) to 82.8637
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1522
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