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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.54%, Hang Seng (0.15%), Shanghai Composite (1.02%) as of 03:10 ET

Feb 05 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia markets ended mixed Monday with another volatile session for China's stocks. The CSI 300 and ChiNext ended higher while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng were lower. Australia fell on commodity prices dip while Seoul and Singapore both fell notably. Japan ended higher along with Taiwan and several Southeast Asia boards. India trading a little higher. US and European futures soft. US dollar consolidated Friday's gains, Asia currencies flat. Treasury yields higher across tenors. Crude blends higher, gold and silver lower, commodity prices lower led by 2% fall in iron ore.

    • China benchmarks experienced another volatile and somewhat confusing trading day: the Shenzhen and Shanghai Composite slid sharply again, with the latter down almost 4%, while the Hang Seng ended a few points lower; on the positive side, the CSI 300, the ChiNext and A Share 50 boards ended higher. The mix, volatility and timing indicates possible further 'National Team' intervention in small-cap sectors and via Stock Connect to Hong Kong given outperformance. Positive reversals came after investors reacted with disdain first thing to yet more promises from state authorities, this time the CSRC, to stabilize markets without elaborating on how or when. Traders pointed to signs of panic selling late last week amid margin calls, technical chart breaches and historical lows.

    • Contrasting fortunes between China and India markets highlighted again today on several fronts: as China's markets continue to struggle, India may be seeing its largest ever IPO later this year with Hyundai Motor's India unit's potential listing. In economics , January China Caixin services PMI declined a little from last month while the equivalent in India was revised higher to six-month peaks. Former President Trump confirmed he may introduce tariffs on Chinese goods of at least 60%, while India was bracing itself for an influx of overseas investment as JP Morgan includes India sovereign bonds into its indices. This may also allow the RBI to hold rates steady later this week.

    • Elsewhere, the FT highlighted BOJ is signaling increased confidence of hitting 2% inflation target, paving way for a rate hike in March or April. Fed Chair Powell downplayed likelihood of March rate cut in a Sunday interview although Treasury and currency market reaction was muted. Indonesia's Q4 and FY GDP growth prints were in line; Thailand's inflation dropped to a three-year low; Singapore retail sales fell in December.

    • Alibaba (9988.HK) is mulling the sale of its consumer sector assets, including Freshippo and RT-Mart. Country Garden (2007.HK) said more than 30 of its projects have received approval for local government financial support. A Seoul court acquitted Samsung Electronics' (005930.KS) Chairman Lee Jae-yong over a stock manipulation scandal. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) is considering an IPO for its India unit in what could be India's biggest ever listing. The RBI found hundreds of thousands of Paytm (One97 Communications, 543396.IN) accounts were created without proper identification; bank's digital wallet may not be able to operate after 29-Feb unless RBI approves a licence transfer to One 97. Zee Entertainment (505537.IN) won an arbitration court ruling that allows it to approach an India tribunal to enforce through the merger deal with Sony's India unit.

  • Digest:

    • Another volatile session in China:

      • Mainland China markets endured another turbulent session Monday, with Shenzhen down as much as 6% at one stage and small-cap CSI 1000 index sliding more than 8% (Bloomberg). Indexes have since swung up from session lows with Hang Seng flat, Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen paring earlier losses but still closed down. ChiNext edged up, possibly due to national team directing funds toward small- and mid-cap stocks. Traders have pointed to signs of panic selling in recent sessions as indexes breached key technical levels, resulting in forced liquidation and margin calls (Bloomberg). Policymaker vows to stabilize markets have failed to spark turnaround with main criticism being a lack of detail and follow-through (Bloomberg). Bearish equity market narrative continues to be underpinned by factors such as weak economy, deepening real estate downturn, geopolitical tensions, and underwhelming policy support measures, contributing to largest monthly outflow since 2014 (Nikkei). Some analysts still eyeing a market bottom, pointing to record valuation discounts, extreme pessimism, potential for stimulus announcements at National People's Congress in March, and risk of state-backed market intervention.

    • China Caixin Services PMI expands at a slightly slower pace:

      • Caixin services PMI was 52.7 in January, slightly lower from December's five-month high of 52.9, signaling further solid increase in service sector output, which has been in expansion for 13 consecutive months. Service providers registered further increases in overall new business amid firmer underlying demand conditions and new customer wins, but rate of growth eased notably from December's seven-month record. New export business also rose at moderate pace. Employment rose for second straight month, but rate of job creation remained marginal as many were still cautious in hiring. Backlogs of work expanded amid pressure on operating capacities. Rate of cost inflation weakened while prices charged by service providers declined for first time since Apr-22 amid increased competition. Business optimism remained strongly positive but also slipped to three-month low. Caixin Composite PMI dipped to 52.5 from prior month's seven-month high of 52.6 as service providers saw a slightly faster rate of output growth than manufacturers. Economists pointed out that policy efforts should concentrate on boosting employment, income and expectations, while policy coordination among different government departments should be enhanced.

    • China local government projections imply nationwide growth of 5.5%:

      • Caixin article published 1-Feb reviewed 2024 local government economic growth targets. Cited analyst calculations the weighted average GDP target of the 28 provincial-level governments that had announced their goals through 28-Jan came to 5.5%, basically unchanged from last year. According to ITG Futures, the national target is typically set about 0.5 ppt lower than the local average. Recall market expectations the national growth target will be kept at 'about 5%.' Official announcement to be made by Premier Li Qiang at the NPC opening on 5-Mar. Story noted narrow majority of provincial governments have set lower GDP growth targets for 2024 than last year, although many are aiming for faster expansion than they achieved in 2023. Moderation in growth expectations partly reflect a more cautious outlook after many regions missed their 2023 growth targets that were made on expectations that the economy would rebound quickly from 2022 when the government's zero-COVID policies hit economic activity. Separately, IMF Article IV takeaways broadly echoed private sector views, forecasting 4.6% GDP growth, and recommended budget neutral reorientation of expenditures toward households to support consumption, additional monetary easing via interest rates, as well as reforms to enhance monetary policy transmission.

    • Hyundai Motor considering India unit listing, could be largest IPO in Mumbai's history:

      • Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) is considering IPO of its India unit, may be India's largest ever listing if it materializes. EconomicTimes said parent company mulling listing around Deepavali in late October, said global investment banks visited Seoul last week to pitch IPO deals to Hyundai board; valued company between $22B and $28B may result in 15-20% dilution to raise $3.3-5.6B. Previous largest IPO was LIC of India in 2022 for $2.53B; article said if stake sold at top of range, will have market valuation just under Tata Motors (500570.IN) and Maruti Suzuki (532500.IN). India third largest market for HMC in 2023, listing would be part of South Korea's recent pledge to improve shareholder value, which helped HMC stock spike 20% last week (Bloomberg). Separately Friday, India government official said it wants to raise $2.2-2.4B in stake sales of state-run firms by end of fiscal year in Mar-24 (Reuters).

    • Indian equity market bull run expected to continue:

      • Indian stocks have propelled higher following last week's interim budget and analysts are eyeing more upside in 2024 with Goldman Sachs predicting Nifty 50 year-end target of 23,500 (implying 7% gain from current levels). Indian equity market strength has shone spotlight on lofty valuations with Nifty 50 trading at 22.8 forward P/E, 10% higher than S&P 500's (Reuters). Some analysts argue rich valuations justified, with earnings projected to grow at compounded annual rate of 16.3%. Outperformance has invited usual contrast with China, which experienced heavy outflows in January as stocks slid towards five-year lows. Indian economy expected to outperform in 2024, underpinned by domestic demand, geopolitical tailwinds, expected RBI rate cuts, while predicted victory by ruling BJP at upcoming election widely seen as a market-friendly outcome. Interim budget was also positively received with takeaways praising fiscal restraint and leeway it provides for an RBI pivot (Bloomberg).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +8.3% 003410.KS (SSANGYONGC&E.Co.): SSANGYONG C&E, Hahn & Co. Cement Holdings to launch up-to-100.3M (20.1%) delisting tender offer at KRW7,000/share

      • +6.6% 3099.JP (Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings): reports Q3 operating income ¥20.7B vs FactSet ¥20.40B, guides FY revenue ¥527.00B vs prior guidance ¥525.00B and FactSet ¥528.36B, operating income ¥50.00B vs prior guidance ¥48.00B and FactSet ¥49.40B

      • +6.6% 8801.JP (Mitsui Fudosan Co.): holder Elliott Management reported calls for ¥1tn ($6.8bn) buyback

      • +4.8% 005380.KS (Hyundai Motor): reportedly considering listing India unit to raise INR273.90-464.80B (KRW4.411-7.487T)

      • +4.6% 6752.JP (Panasonic): reports Q3 revenue ¥2.181T vs StreetAccount ¥2.112T, operating income ¥127.5B vs StreetAccount ¥103.65B

      • +4.2% 8411.JP (Mizuho Financial): reports 9M ordinary income ¥6.160T, +43% vs year-ago ¥4.308T, ordinary profit ¥882.85B, +34% vs year-ago ¥658.15B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -7.0% 4005.JP (Sumitomo Chemical): reports 9M revenue ¥1.807T, (20%) vs year-ago ¥2.257T, operating income (¥160.63B) vs year-ago ¥71.44B; guides FY operating income (¥285B) vs prior guidance (¥125.0B) and FactSet (¥108.52B)

      • -5.8% 6479.JP (Minebea Mitsumi): reports Q3 revenue ¥381.21B vs FactSet ¥388.00B, operating income ¥24.03B vs FactSet ¥28.56B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China

        • Caixin Services PMI 52.7 vs 52.9 in prior month

        • Caixin Composite PMI 52.5 vs 52.6 in prior month

      • Japan January

        • Final services PMI 53.1 vs preliminary 52.7 and 51.5 in prior month

          • Composite PMI 51.5 vs preliminary 51.1 and 50.0 in prior month

      • Australia December

        • Trade balance A$10.95B vs consensus A$10.50B and revised A$11.764B in November

          • Exports +1.8% m/m vs +1.7% in November

          • Imports +4.8% m/m vs revised (8.4%) in November

      • Singapore December

        • Retail sales nominal y/y (0.4%) versus +2.4% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 196.14 or +0.54% to 36354.16

      • Hang Seng: (23.55) or (0.15%) to 15510.01

      • Shanghai Composite: (27.97) or (1.02%) to 2702.19

      • Shenzhen Composite: (58.60) or (3.93%) to 1433.10

      • ASX200: (73.50) or (0.95%) to 7625.90

      • KOSPI: (24.00) or (0.92%) to 2591.31

      • SENSEX: 152.46 or +0.21% to 72238.09

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.07 or +0.04% to 148.4550

      • $-KRW: (5.83) or (0.44%) to 1332.6600

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.04% to 0.6513

      • $-INR: +0.04 or +0.05% to 83.0422

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.07% to 7.1967

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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