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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.53%), Hang Seng +4.04%, Shanghai Composite +3.23% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 06 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities again finished mixed Tuesday but reversed its recent trends as China climbed and Japan fell. All Greater China's boards were sharply higher as several positive market supportive measures were detailed with Shenzhen's ChiNext the biggest gainer up almost 7%. Shanghai and Hong Kong were also substantially higher. Gains for India and most of Southeast Asia but Japan, Australia and South Korea were all lower. Taiwan was closed for a holiday. US futures steady, Europe opened higher as it caught up with Wall Street's late move and BP helped the FTSE. US dollar a little weaker after hitting three-month high overnight, AUD notably higher post RBA's hawkish message on rates, other Asia currencies largely unmoved. Treasury yields mixed. Crude futures higher, precious metals also caught a bid. Industrial metals higher.

    • Several markets supportive catalysts behind Greater China's equity moves Tuesday. China's sovereign wealth fund is to boost ETF holdings again following a similar move in Q4, while brokers have imposed further curbs on share sales. President Xi was reported to be meeting with China market regulators as soon as today to discuss more forceful measures to stop the rout in shares; and numerous technical indicators signaled deeply oversold positions late Monday in several markets, encouraging some bottom fishers to enter. But despite today's positive moves, China skeptics still say a structural market rally will not occur until the country's economy shows significant signs of improvement and a solution is found to the country's property crisis.

    • Elsewhere, the RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% as expected but its accompanying statement leaned hawkish. Japan real wage decline narrowed as inflation factors weakened to its lowest since Jun-2023. Japan household spending shrank further underscoring expectations of only a tepid rebound in Q4 GDP. Philippine inflation fell to its lowest in three years.

    • Toyota Motors (7203.JP) upped its FY guidance as it reported Q3 revenue and operating income above expectations. Blackstone is maybe considering a bid for L'Occitane International (753.HK), stock sharply higher. SMIC (981.HK) and Huawei are expected to begin production of next generation 5nm chips before the end of the year, just one migration away from top of the range 3nm chips. Adani Green Energy (541450.IN) is in talks to raise around $500M in dollar bonds, the Adani Group's first bond issuance since the Hindenburg report last year. The RBI approved HDFC Bank's (500180.IN) acquisition of 9.5% stakes in six banks including IndusInd Bank (532187.IN), Yes Bank (532648.IN) and Axis Bank (532215.IN).

  • Digest:

    • China sovereign fund vows to increase ETF holdings while President Xi to discuss stock market with regulators:

      • China's sovereign fund Central Huijin Investment has expanded scope of holdings of ETFs recently and will continue to increase stakes. Chinese stocks rallied on news with CSI 300 ending 3.5% higher. CSRC immediately acknowledged fund's statement and would "firmly support" its actions. Adding regulator will continue to guide other institutional investors to increase equity investments and support listed companies in share buybacks. Bloomberg added President Xi set to receive briefing from CSRC on financial markets as soon as today, underscoring urgency in top leadership to prop up markets. Noted purchase by "national team" closely watched by investors as selloff intensified this year, adding total inflows into ETFs tracking major benchmarks rose to record in January and was more than five times aggregate amount seen in market rout in Jul-15 (Bloomberg). Recall Central Huijin bought ETFs last October(Bloomberg). However euphoria from that purchase evaporated soon with key China equity gauges having kept falling to new multiyear lows ever since.

    • RBA leaves cash rate unchanged, says further rate hikes cannot be ruled out:

      • RBA left cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected. Retained mildly hawkish bias, stating that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out with rate path dependent on data and evolving assessment of risks. Noted inflation is easing but remains high with demand exceeding supply. Inflation risks judged as broadly balanced. Good inflation down substantially but RBA continues to place greater emphasis on services inflation, which is expected to ease gradually though with risk that it remains persistent. Added that labor market conditions remain tighter than is consistent with sustained full employment and target inflation. Sees labor market conditions easing with unemployment rate forecasts revised higher. RBA downgraded CPI estimates with inflation projected to return to 2-3% target range in 2025, reaching 2.5% midpoint in 2026.In post-meeting press conference, RBA Governor Bullock said won't rule in or out further changes to rates but needs to be convinced inflation will return to target in a sustained manner before considering rate cuts.

    • China adds to stock selling restrictions:

      • Reuters, citing multiple sources, reported Chinese brokerages have restricted total return swaps (TRS) for domestic investors as authorities seek to stem stock market declines. Corroborated by Bloomberg, which also noted some brokers using TRS to buy mainland shares for offshore units were told not to reduce positions. Added that some quant funds were banned from placing sell orders completely from Monday, while others were barred from cutting positions in Direct Market Access strategy (leveraged market-neutral funds). TRS has been a popular OTC product for China funds to access offshore markets, effectively side-stepping restrictions on capital flows. Measure appears to be aimed at prohibiting another short-selling channel and will also allow brokers to limit exposure to derivatives. Follows latest CSRC statement vowing to prevent abnormal market fluctuations and crack down on "ill-intended short selling." Adds to previous actions suspending lending of restricted shares for short sales and curbs on leveraged trading. CICC was highlighted among 10 major brokerages in China licensed to provide TRS services.

    • Small cap stocks bearing brunt of China market selloff:

      • China market selloff has been particularly intense in small-cap space with CSI 1000 down 27% year-to-date to five-year low. Losses have significantly outpaced CSI 300's 7% ytd decline. Similarly, Shenzhen Composite has lost 22% vs Shanghai Composite's 9% decline. While small-cap underperformance a reflection of broader risk-off sentiment, Bloomberg linked record trading volume in CSI 300 to speculation of state-backed intervention limiting downside on main indexes with buying focused on large-caps. Heavy selling in small caps also blamed on impact of so-called snowball derivatives that track CSI 1000 and which triggered levels that have resulted in forced selling (SCMP). Analysts say issuing brokerages have sold index futures to maintain hedges, accelerating market losses. Policymakers have tightened restrictions on share sales in a bid to stem market rout, though these are seen mostly as band-aid measures until there is a meaningful change in the bearish China narrative.

    • Japan wage growth, household spending continue to disappoint:

      • Nominal average wages rose 1.0% y/y in December, below consensus 1.4% and follows revised 0.7% in the previous month. Left real wages down 1.9% following revised 2.5% decline in November as inflation factor moderated to +3.0% from prior month's +3.3% and well off peak +5.1% in January. Scheduled earnings moderately better, offsetting declines in overtime. Major factor was 0.5% increase in special payments with weighting boosted by year-end bonuses. Total hours worked fell at a faster pace reflecting declines in both scheduled and overtime as manufacturing overtime in particular fell sharply. Recall heightened attention on this year's shunto labor talks for confirmation this year's pay raises beat last year's, seen as the key precondition for a BOJ rate hike. Household spending remained soft, down 2.5% y/y vs expected 2.0% decline and follows 2.9% drop in November. Seasonally adjusted 0.9% m/m decrease marks the third consecutive contraction. Main drivers were apparel and furniture & household goods. Latest Reuters poll found expectations of a tepid 1.4% q/q annualized rebound in Q4 GDP following the 2.9% contraction in Q3 with private demand growth seen remaining subdued.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +10.0% 002008.CH (Han's Laser Technology Industry Group): launches CNY500M-1B share buyback at up to CNY25/share to run for 3 months

      • +7.3% 973.HK (L'Occitane International): Blackstone reported to consider potential bid for L'Occitane International

      • +7.3% 9684.JP (Square Enix Holdings): reports 9M revenue ¥257.61B vs year-ago ¥255.62B

      • +4.8% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reports Q3 revenue ¥12.041T vs StreetAccount ¥11.390T, operating income ¥1.681T vs StreetAccount ¥1.352T; guides FY revenue ¥43.500T vs prior guidance ¥43.000T and FactSet ¥44.066T, operating income ¥4.900T vs prior guidance ¥4.500T and FactSet ¥4.707T

      • +3.8% 4208.JP (Ube): reports Q3 operating income ¥7.1B vs FactSet ¥5.00B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -15.3% 6645.JP (OMRON): reports Q3 revenue ¥207.3B vs FactSet ¥205.96B, operating income ¥5.90 vs FactSet ¥8.96B; guides FY revenue ¥810.00B vs prior guidance ¥850.0B and FactSet ¥842.18B, operating income ¥24.00 vs prior guidance ¥45.00B and FactSet ¥45.78B

      • -7.3% 9064.JP (Yamato Holdings Co.): reports Q3 revenue ¥500.2B, (2%) vs year-ago ¥512.2B, operating profit ¥38.0B, (21%) vs year-ago ¥48.3B; lowers FY guidance; issues medium-term management plan, targets FY27 net income attributable ¥80-100B

      • -6.3% 6503.JP (Mitsubishi Electric): reports Q3 revenue ¥1.244T vs StreetAccount ¥1.249T

      • -5.0% 096770.KS (SK Innovation): reports FY operating profit KRW1.904T vs StreetAccount KRW2.217T

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan December

        • Nominal average wages +1.0% y/y vs consensus +1.4% and revised +0.7% in prior month

          • Real wages (1.9%) y/y vs consensus (1.5%) and revised (2.5%) in prior month

        • Household spending (2.5%) y/y vs consensus (2.1%) and (2.9%) in prior month

          • Spending (0.9%) m/m vs (1.0%) in prior month

      • Australia Q4

        • Retail sales volume +0.3% vs consensus +0.1% and +0.2% in Q3

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (193.50) or (0.53%) to 36160.66

      • Hang Seng: 626.86 or +4.04% to 16136.87

      • Shanghai Composite: 87.30 or +3.23% to 2789.49

      • Shenzhen Composite: 73.68 or +5.14% to 1506.79

      • ASX200: (44.30) or (0.58%) to 7581.60

      • KOSPI: (15.11) or (0.58%) to 2576.20

      • SENSEX: 462.05 or +0.64% to 72193.48

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.08) or (0.05%) to 148.5950

      • $-KRW: (6.25) or (0.47%) to 1327.6900

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.31% to 0.6502

      • $-INR: +0.00 or +0.00% to 83.0485

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1790

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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