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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.11%), Hang Seng (0.34%), Shanghai Composite +1.44% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 07 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities traded mostly higher Wednesday although most bourses were off their peaks by the close. Greater China markets mixed with mainland exchanges higher again but the Hang Seng reversed opening gains to trade lower by the close. Gains in Seoul, Sydney and Singapore. Tokyo was mixed as chip shares dragged on Nikkei, earnings supported Topix. India reversing opening gains to trade lower. Most of Southeast Asia higher. Taiwan remained closed for a holiday. US futures treading water, European markets opened mixed. US dollar flat, Asia currencies also largely unchanged. Treasury yields mostly higher. Oil a little higher, other commodities under pressure in afternoon trade.

    • Mainland China stocks extended their rebound following latest pledges of market support with strong returns in smaller market-cap indices relative to Shanghai's boards, while sentiment turned negative in Hong Kong as the day progressed. Skepticism remains firmly in place despite yesterday's rally as policymaker resistance to broad-based or consumer stimulus remains amid a deepening housing market downturn, as analysts suggested yesterday's rally was more technical- and sentiment-based rather than one structured on concrete measures.

    • Elsewhere Wednesday, New Zealand Q4 employment data was better than expected, heightening doubts RBNZ will back off its hawkish policy bias this month. China's relations with the west in focus with US conveying Treasury Secretary Yellen's desire to visit Beijing later this year, and Germany Chancellor Scholz confirming plans to visit Beijing in April. Bank of Thailand kept base rates on hold as expected and noted deflationary pressures not broad based in pushback on politicians' calls for a cut. Philippines unemployment rate fell to record low just as manufacturing output rose to three-month high.

    • KDDI (9433.JP) launched a takeover bid for Lawson (2651.JP) priced at ¥10,360 per share, and will run the convenience store company jointly with Mitsubishi Corp (8058.JP). Yum China (9987.HK) announced a share buyback plan just as it defied the China economic slowdown to post strong Q4 domestic sales. HMM's (011200.KS) sale to a Harim-JKL consortium fell through as sides were unable to resolve differences over several issues. Woodside Energy (WDS.AU) and Santos (STO.AU) have ended their merger talks just two days after extending due diligence by weeks.

  • Digest:

    • China bounce skepticism:

      • China stocks extending rebound into second session with small-cap focused indexes logging biggest gains. Bounce attributed to news of China's sovereign wealth fund expanding ETF purchases, while President Xi's reported engagement with regulators appeared to underscore sense of urgency among authorities. However, also thoughts rally nothing more than a bear market bounce given long-standing pessimism over direction of China's economy, lack of policymaker appetite for big/consumer-focused stimulus, property market risks and geopolitical tensions. Curbs on share sales and promises of support fell flat in January. There were rescue efforts in 2023 with China's sovereign wealth fund moving to purchase ETFs (Bloomberg), and authorities cutting stamp duty on stock trades (Bloomberg). However, these also failed to arrest year-long market slide driven by large foreign outflows. Press also recalled situation in 2015 when it took markets month to bottom following buying by 'National Team' (Reuters).

    • Bank of Thailand resists political pressure and holds interest rates steady:

      • Bank of Thailand left its 1D repo rate unchanged at 2.5% for second consecutive meeting Wednesday, despite pressure from senior politicians including PM Srettha to cut. Bank's MPC voted five to two to hold, with two dissentions voting for 25 bps trim. Bank projected economy to slow this year as exports ease, China's growth moderates; said structural headwinds impacting exports and tourism more than expected. Added current policy rate consistent with preserving macro-financial stability, a "key foundation" for long term growth. Expects headline inflation to be lower than previous projection because of extension of government subsidies; price declines not broad based. Senior politicians recently lobbied bank to lower rates 25 bps to boost consumption, growth following four consecutive months of deflation. BOT said expects inflation to level out around 1% this year, may increase in 2025, risks include Middle East conflict that could lead to higher energy prices.

    • Market debate shifting to BOJ follow-up rate hikes:

      • Nikkei discussed rate markets pricing, thought to be reflecting views that BOJ is likely to raise short-term rates further after abandoning its negative rate policy. However, article emphasized this debate is gaining particular traction among international investors and recalled uncertainties stemming from the prospect of early rate cuts by the Fed. Noted 2-year JGB yield reached three-month high 0.11% this week after receiving an initial push in mid-January on a build-up in speculation of a NIRP exit by spring. OIS market implies a BOJ policy rate of around 0.14% in December. MUFJ Morgan Stanley Securities said many (including their own house call) believe BOJ will eventually hike to 0.25%, implying a 50% probability. Still, article recalled Governor Ueda's remarks BOJ intends to minimize disruptions and policy will remain loose for the time being even after moving away from negative rates. Other analysts maintain their argument that BOJ won't hike once Fed starts cutting rates, given the risk of a spike in yen that would adversely impact stock prices and exporters. This places the window of opportunity open for BOJ hikes until June, when a Fed cut is almost fully priced in.

    • New Zealand employment data stronger-than-expected:

      • New Zealand Q4 employment rose 0.4% q/q, touch higher than consensus for a 0.3% increase and Q3's revised 0.1% decline. Unemployment rate climbed to 4.0% from 3.9%, but less than 4.3% expected. Wage inflation pressures persist with labour cost index (LCI) for public sector workers rising 5.7% - highest on record and offsetting slowdown in private sector LCI inflation. Data adds to doubts whether RBNZ will back off its hawkish policy bias at the February meeting. Separate data has offered mixed read on New Zealand's economy with Q4 inflation slowing to mid-2021 low but with non-tradeable inflation still twice as high as upper end of RBNZ's 1-3% range. Monthly business confidence highest since mid-2014 while real estate market has bottomed. Some economists argue employment data strengthens likelihood of RBNZ rate cut being delayed to later in 2024 after markets had been pricing in easing as soon as Q2.

    • StreetAccount Macro Update: Economists see higher bar for RBA rate cut

      • Hawkish-leaning takeaways from RBA's hold decision on Tuesday after central bank said further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Contrasted somewhat with thoughts RBA would more meaningfully dial back its (mildly) hawkish policy following softer-than-expected Q4 CPI. Economists highlighted central bank's emphasis on still-high services inflation and excess demand, Governor Bullock's guarding against inflation reacceleration and her comment that RBA needs to be convinced inflation is heading to 2-3% target before considering rate cuts. Bullock also suggested higher bar for rate cut by appearing to condition it on downside inflation surprises. Economists broadly maintained view of a later start to RBA's easing cycle than markets anticipating. Morgan Stanley says expects RBA to remain on hold through 2024 before easing in Feb-2025. UBS views risk skewed towards later start to easing with first cut in Nov-2024.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +21.1% 6674.JP (GS Yuasa): reports Q3 revenue ¥154.79B, +11% vs year-ago ¥139.66B, operating income ¥16.70B, +55% vs year-ago ¥10.77B; guides FY operating income ¥42.00B vs prior guidance ¥37.00B and FactSet ¥37.55B

      • +17.8% 2651.JP (Lawson): KDDI, Mitsubishi Corp agree to implement tender offer for Lawson at ¥10,360/share

      • +14.3% 9987.HK (Yum China Holdings): reports Q4 EPS $0.25 ex-items vs FactSet $0.16, revenue $2.49B vs FactSet $2.32B

      • +9.7% 8058.JP (Mitsubishi): reports 9M results; to launch up-to 417M shares buyback for up-to ¥500B, to run from 7-Feb to 30-Sep; KDDI, Mitsubishi Corp agree to implement tender offer for Lawson

      • +4.0% 323410.KS (KakaoBank): net income KRW75.66B vs FactSet KRW66.51B, revenue KRW663.67B, +37% vs year-ago KRW484.72B; proposes year-end dividend KRW150/share vs year-ago KRW80/share

      • +0.7% 1177.HK (Sino Biopharmaceutical): sells 67% of CP Qingdao to Guoxin Group for CNY1.82B cash

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -8.8% 6753.JP (Sharp Corp): reports Q3 revenue, operating income ¥2.2B vs FactSet ¥13.22B; guides FY revenue ¥2.350T vs prior guidance ¥2.560T and FactSet ¥2.479T, operating income ¥0 vs prior guidance ¥40.00B and FactSet ¥21.64B

      • -7.1% 6367.JP (DAIKIN INDUSTRIES): reports 9M net income attributable ¥193.85B, (7%) vs year-ago ¥208.95B

      • -0.5% 316140.KS (Woori Financial Group): reports Q4 net operating revenue KRW2.338T vs StreetAccount KRW2.435T, NII KRW2.143T vs SA KRW2.180T

      • -0.4% 011200.KS (HMM): negotiations for sale of HMM to Harim-JKL consortium fall through

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • New Zealand Q4

        • Employment +0.4% q/q vs consensus +0.3% and revised (0.1%) in Q3

        • Unemployment rate 4.0% vs consensus 4.3% and 3.9% in Q3

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (40.74) or (0.11%) to 36119.92

      • Hang Seng: (54.98) or (0.34%) to 16081.89

      • Shanghai Composite: 40.21 or +1.44% to 2829.70

      • Shenzhen Composite: 22.12 or +1.47% to 1528.91

      • ASX200: 34.20 or +0.45% to 7615.80

      • KOSPI: 33.38 or +1.30% to 2609.58

      • SENSEX: (90.64) or (0.13%) to 72095.45

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.10) or (0.07%) to 147.8460

      • $-KRW: (0.26) or (0.02%) to 1327.0000

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.06% to 0.6528

      • $-INR: (0.10) or (0.12%) to 82.9817

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1790

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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