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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +2.06%, Hang Seng (1.27%), Shanghai Composite +1.28% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 08 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities traded mostly higher Thursday. A third consecutive day of gains for China's mainland markets but Hong Kong suffered a second day of reversals. Strong gains in Japan as Softbank shares spiked on Arm profits, smaller gains in Seoul and Sydney. India lower post RBI's hawkish hold, Singapore gave up some recent gains. Taipei and Jakarta closed for holidays. US futures flat, Europe opened slightly positive. US dollar flat, yen weakened on BOJ comments, other Asia currencies flat. Treasury yields mixed, JGB yields all lower. Crude blends higher, industrial metals mixed, precious metals mixed.

    • Mainland China equities extended their WTD gains with evidence piling up of 'national team' buying in recent sessions and with more potentially still to come. In a repeat of yesterday's action, mainland small cap boards outperformed the larger indices while Hong Kong remained in the red, with the later dragged lower by Alibaba. Muted reaction overnight to reports Beijing had replaced its head of the securities regulator following recent market turmoil.

    • China's CPI data showed deflation deepened by more than expected with prices falling at their fastest rate since 2009. Food prices led the falls with another large decline in pork prices while core inflation also moderated. PPI shrunk for a 16th consecutive month although at a slower pace than in December. The RBI held rates steady as largely expected, but it also kept its 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance against some expectations of a more dovish switch to 'neutral'. BOJ's deputy governor Uchida said it was hard to see the bank raising its policy rate continuously even after NIRP is abandoned.

    • Softbank's (9984.JP) Arm unit upped guidance following an AI sales boost; Softbank group quarterly profit also boosted by big gains in its Vision Fund to post first quarterly profit in a year. Alibaba (9988.HK) said it was postponing the IPO of its supermarket unit Freshippo, and its logistics unit Cainiao, due to market conditions; extended its share buyback by another $25B; shares sharply lower on concerns over Chinese consumer strength, loss of market share to rivals. Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI) shareholders voted in favor of a takeover proposal from private equity group Ascendent Capital Partners worth around $1.66B. LG Chem (051910.KS) signed a long-term contract with GM (GM) for the supply of cathode materials for EVs.

  • Digest:

    • RBI keeps rates steady, maintains hawkish stance:

      • Reserve Bank of India kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for sixth consecutive meeting Thursday, in line with expectations. Kept 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance against some forecasts of switch to 'neutral' to aid bank liquidity; Governor Das said RBI remains nimble, flexible in managing liquidity. Das said inflation on downward trajectory, kept FY23-24 forecast at 5.4%, FY24-25 projection at 4.5%, added uncertainty in food prices impinging on headline figure, MPC to monitor for food price pressures, monetary policy to stay vigilant to navigate last mile of disinflation. Warned geopolitical tension impacting supply chains, commodity prices especially oil. Das said economy performed 'remarkably well', expects momentum in economic activity to continue, projects Q4FY25 GDP growth 6.9%, FY24-25 at 7.0%. Said investment cycle gaining steam aided by sustained government capital expenditure. On retail sales, said urban consumption strong, rural demand gathering pace.

    • China CPI logs biggest drop since 2009, PPI deflation extends to 16th month:

      • CPI fell 0.8% y/y in January, worse than expectations of a 0.5% decline. Follows 0.3% decrease in the previous month and marks the fastest pace since September 2009. Deterioration in large part attributed to unfavorable base effects associated with last year's Lunar New Year falling in January. NBS noted this year's holiday effects led sequential prices higher for the second straight month. Double-digit y/y drops in meat (mainly pork) and fresh vegetables were the standouts, accounting for 0.78% ppt of the headline. Non-food inflation was up 0.4%, reflecting 0.5% rise in service prices, while goods fell 1.7%. Core inflation moderated to 0.4% from 0.6%. PPI declines moderated to 2.5% from 2.7% vs consensus 2.6%. Upstream and downstream prices both saw slight easing. Final demand goods dragged down by food and consumer durables while apparel and daily necessities were steady. Weakness explained by commodity prices and off-season for some industries heading into the Lunar New Year holidays. Early takeaways were bearish as PPI remained negative for the 16 straight month, further fueling concerns about a deflationary spiral (Bloomberg).

    • BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida downplays prospects for successive rate hikes:

      • In a speech, Deputy Governor Uchida discussed the bank's thinking behind current wage and inflation developments. Broke down the 'virtuous cycle' dynamic into two facets, expressing more confidence that higher inflation is translating to higher wages, while acknowledging confirmation of the reverse is more difficult though lower labor share implies some progress. Also noted there is no clear indicator of labor cost passthrough comparable to the shunto negotiations, hence judgement will be made based on broader evidence including anecdotal analysis from the branch managers meeting. Offered some detailed thoughts on eventual changes to policy settings and alluded to a restoration of the conventional framework before NIRP. On the prospects for a rate hike cycle, remarked that even if NIRP is terminated, "it is hard to imagine a path" for successive rate hikes and believes the Bank would maintain accommodative financial conditions (echoing Governor Ueda's comments). Downplayed international estimates of a 2% nominal rate or even higher when using models such as the Taylor Rule. Stressed that Japan inflation expectations still not anchored at 2%, contrasting with the US and Europe.

    • Beijing replaces head of its securities regulator but market reaction muted:

      • Beijing replaced Yi Huiman, head of its securities regulator (CSRC) late Wednesday in another sign of Beijing's angst over equity market selloff. Veteran banker Wu Qing named as successor, known as "broker butcher" in mid-2000s following crackdown on traders. Analysts said replacement "long overdue" as Yi's style too low key, favored light-handed approach in market still in early development. Yi's replacement similar to that of markets head after significant selloff in 2016. Ousting announced in very short Xinhua post and was unexpected, comes days after Xi said to have been briefed on market selloff and as China equities rally extends with indices 7-11% above January lows. Bloomberg noted broker Goldman Sachs said "national team" may have bought CNY70B ($9.7B) over past month, further CNY130B need for stability. Market reaction to news mixed as Hang Seng opened slightly lower Thursday, Shanghai higher, small cap indices strong to continue recent trends.

    • Alibaba share buyback fails to lift sentiment:

      • Alibaba (BABA) sold off 5.87% as key Q3 earnings metrics were mostly below FactSet consensus -- EPS and adjusted EBITDA missed, revenue in line. However, press reports attributed reactions to disappointing revenues citing higher consensus figures and slower growth. Core commerce revenues were below expectations, mainly due to Taobao and Tmall with analysts pointing to lower sales per transaction. CNBC noted one bright spot in international commerce with segment revenue up 44% y/y. Sharp drop in net profit mainly attributed to mark-to-market adjustments to equity investments and impairments related to Youku and Sun Art. Highlight was expanded share buyback worth $25B through March 2027 following completion of $2.9B as of December-end. Main focus of the earnings call was on Chairman Joe Tsai's remarks the company is "not in a hurry" to proceed with IPOs for Cainiao Smart Logistics and Freshippo, citing challenging market conditions. Clarified ongoing aim to sell non-core physical retail businesses but "this will take time" (Nikkei).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +19.4% 4151.JP (Kyowa Kirin): reports Q4 revenue ¥136.2B vs FactSet ¥119.56B, core operating profit ¥35.9B vs FactSet ¥25.97B; BridgeBio Pharma and Kyowa Kirin announce partnership with upfront payment of $100M for exclusive license on infigratinib in skeletal dysplasias in Japan

      • +7.1% 6723.JP (Renesas Electronics): reports Q4 non-GAAP revenue ¥361.9B vs StreetAccount ¥361.49B, non-GAAP operating margin 31.9% vs guidance 30.5%; declares year-end dividend ¥28/share vs year-ago nil

      • +6.9% 4543.JP (Terumo): reports 9M revenue ¥682.95B, +11% vs year-ago ¥617.99B, adjusted operating profit ¥119.73B, +9% vs year-ago ¥109.61B

      • +6.6% 500251.IN (Trent Ltd): reports Q3 standalone EPS INR9.67 vs year-ago INR4.53, revenue from operations INR33.12B vs FactSet INR33.11B

      • +1.5% 051910.KS (LG Chem): signs KRW24.749T mid- to long-term contract with GM for supply of cathode materials for EVs

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -10.2% 2432.JP (DeNA Co.): reports Q3 revenue ¥29B vs year-ago ¥30.2B, operating income (¥32.4B) vs year-ago (¥2B)

      • -6.3% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): reports Q3 EPS CNY18.97 ex-items vs FactSet CNY19.12

      • -5.8% 7269.JP (Suzuki Motor): reports Q3 revenue ¥1.283T vs FactSet ¥1.353T, operating income ¥117.2B vs FactSet ¥120.17B

      • -4.0% 036570.KS (NCsoft): reports Q4 operating profit KRW3.85B vs StreetAccount KRW13.30B

      • -1.3% 030200.KS (KT): reports Q4 operating profit KRW265.60B vs StreetAccount KRW288.79B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China

        • January CPI (0.8%) y/y vs consensus (0.5%) and (0.3%) in prior month

          • PPI (2.5%) y/y vs consensus (2.6%) and (2.7%) in prior month

      • Japan

        • January bank lending +3.1% y/y vs revised +3.0% in prior month

        • December current account balance ¥744.3B vs consensus ¥1,139B and ¥1,925.6B in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 743.36 or +2.06% to 36863.28

      • Hang Seng: (203.82) or (1.27%) to 15878.07

      • Shanghai Composite: 36.21 or +1.28% to 2865.90

      • Shenzhen Composite: 48.42 or +3.17% to 1577.33

      • ASX200: 23.40 or +0.31% to 7639.20

      • KOSPI: 10.74 or +0.41% to 2620.32

      • SENSEX: (532.47) or (0.74%) to 71619.53

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.57 or +0.39% to 148.7570

      • $-KRW: (1.44) or (0.11%) to 1327.2100

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 0.6518

      • $-INR: (0.01) or (0.01%) to 82.9879

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1790

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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