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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.09%, Hang Seng (0.83%), Australia ASX (0.08%) as of 03:10 ET

Feb 09 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mostly lower Friday. Hong Kong gapped lower at the open and came under more pressure shortly after but recovered a little into the close. Japan saw the opposite, opening with gains before closing flat to slightly lower. Quiet elsewhere with those exchanges still open trading near the flatline. Mainland China, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia all closed for LNY holiday. US futures soft, Europe with a flat open. US dollar flat, NZD stronger on broker comments on rates, elsewhere quiet. Treasury yields mixed. Crude mixed, iron ore at three-month lows, precious metals flat.

    • Asia markets saw a relatively quiet day Friday with volumes dropping substantially as Lunar New Year holidays began across the region. The Hang Seng suffered an early scare, gapping lower then adding more losses before a modest recovery, saving its weekly advance. Mainland China markets were closed however commentary over the week's market events continued with many analysts still suggesting the market-supportive measures were "sticking plasters" and a substantive rally won't occur until the housing sector debt problem finds a solution and the consumer receives a significant stimulus package.

    • In macro news, RBA Governor Bullock appeared before parliament, repeating the message further rate hikes cannot be ruled out but also a 2.5% inflation print isn't a pre-requisite before cuts are possible. BOJ Governor Ueda said accommodative financial conditions to remain following the bank's first rate hike, adding to deputy Governor Uchida comments Thursday that downplayed prospects for successive rate hikes. Influential broker ANZ projected RBNZ will hike OCR in February and April, arguing the bank needs to do more to return inflation to 2% midpoint.

    • Nissan Motor (7201.JP) cut is full-year outlook after China sales slumped; shares down sharply. Panasonic's (6752.JP) energy unit secures graphite supply from Novonix (NVX.AU) for EV battery development. Seven & I (3382.JP) will close all its Yokado store in Hokkaido region, accounting for 10% of its nationwide total, as it urbanizes its stores. BHP Group (BHP.AU), Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) and BlueScope Steel (BSL.AU) are to jointly develop Australia's first electric-smelting furnace as aim to slash emissions. Grab (GRAB) and GoTo (GOTO.IJ) have resumed merger talks with Grab buying GoTo for cash, shares or both being discussed.

  • Digest:

    • China equity flows turn positive, though likely driven by state-backed offshore arms:

      • FT analysis of Hong Kong Stock Connect showed weekly inflows of CNY16.1B ($2.4B) into mainland China through Thursday. Marks the first inflow since the new year, taking YTD foreign net purchases to CNY8.9B ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. However, some participants believe state-backed institutions contributed after earlier indications of official support. Cited a Chinese investment bank in Hong Kong suggesting only some flows from long-only investors and hedge funds, but all are linked to the support announcement. Traders and analysts said inflows reflected surge in buying from offshore arms of state-linked institutions rather than a revival in foreign investor appetite. Article affirmed thoughts the sudden removal of CSRC chief Yi Huiman was a genuine signal of Beijing's acute awareness of the problem. Story added thoughts about markets after the LNY break that follow-up rate cuts would be necessary to sustain momentum from policy announcement effects (absence of which could prompt market weakness) though would still not address underlying economic weakness.

    • Hundreds of Chinese listed companies respond to government calls for stock market support:

      • Nikkei reported over 200 mainland China listed firms have publicly declared participation in the government's call to prop up the stock market and broader economy. Noted actions take various forms with most Shanghai-listed companies promising share buybacks or increased holdings among key stakeholders. Exchange filings broadly pledged to establish an action plan to "enhance corporate quality, increase efficiency and stress shareholders' returns." Shenzhen bourse disclosures featured plans for "dual enhancement of corporate quality and shareholders' returns," with less direct mention of buyback targets but more qualitative descriptions of how they aim to achieve such a goal. Article noted common slogans appeared after Premier Li's speech on 22-Jan, deemed as a watershed moment which was followed by a slew of policy measures aimed at stabilizing the stock market. Developments have led to a market rebound with foreign investors turning net buyers, though durability of remains in doubt against the backdrop of soft economic growth.

    • Bullish and bearish China market narratives:

      • Bullish: President Xi's involvement and replacement of CSRC head underscores growing sense of urgency among policymakers to halt market slide. State-backed ETF buys and curbs on short selling among flurry of market support headlines. Mainland stocks saw first week of inflows this year. Indexes trading at record valuation discount to global peers. Contrarian signaling from deeply oversold conditions and extreme pessimism Deflation persistence reinforced bets of additional rate cuts. Bearish: Doubts that stabilization efforts will have lasting impact given China's economic problems more entrenched compared to past rescue episodes. Risk appetite remains dampened by absence of comprehensive stimulus to revive consumption. Deflationary pressures worsening amid gloomy economic backdrop. Risk of geopolitical tensions intensifying with Trump leading in polls and threatening more tariffs.

    • RBA Governor Bullock not ruling out more rate hikes, leaves door open to cut:

      • Remarking before House of Representatives committee, RBA Governor Bullock said while recent developments encouraging inflation remains too high and still some way to go to achieve 2.5% midpoint target. Said inflation with a '4' in front of it is not good enough and RBA needs it to be quite a bit lower than current levels. Hasn't ruled out additional tightening, but also notes rate cuts possible before inflation falls to 3%. Highlighted progress in terms of cooling labour market, but noted aggregate demand remains above supply and labour market too tight to be consistent with sustained full employment and target inflation. Recall RBA's updated forecasts assume trimmed inflation not returning to top end of target until mid-to-late 2025, and to 2.5% midpoint until 2026. Sell-side takeaways were mixed with some economists maintaining view of a later start to RBA's easing cycle than markets anticipating. Futures pricing in two rate cuts by year-end with first reduction occurring August.

    • Economists see RBA and RBNZ remaining hawkish for longer:

      • ANZ economists predict RBNZ will hike OCR by 25 bp in February and April, which would take rate to 6.00%. Argued RBNZ needs to do more to return inflation to 2% target midpoint, citing strong consumption growth, higher non-tradables inflation, and a resilient labour market (Interest.co.nz). RBNZ delivered a hawkish hold in November and ANZ says there have been additional developments since then that calls for more tightening. Recall Q4 employment came in hotter with wage inflation pressures persisting, while non-tradeable inflation remains well outside RBNZ's target range. Meanwhile, UBS delayed timing of first RBA rate cut to November from August following this week's RBA developments. Noted hawkish elements of Tuesday's policy statement, including retention of tightening bias and the downplaying of Q4 CPI miss. Added that Bullock's parliament comments also implied need for unemployment rate to rise further.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +23.8% 5803.JP (Fujikura): reports 9M results; guides FY revenue ¥790.00B vs prior guidance ¥760.00B and FactSet ¥765.49B, operating income ¥63.00B vs prior guidance ¥54.00B and FactSet ¥56.78B

      • +8.7% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): reports Q3 net income attributable ¥950.00B vs year-ago (¥783.42B), revenue ¥1.775T vs StreetAccount ¥1.773T

      • +8.2% 9843.JP (Nitori Holdings): reports 9M revenue ¥663.75B, +5% vs year-ago ¥631.77B, operating income ¥97.87B, +3% vs year-ago ¥95.05B

      • +1.4% 4502.JP (Takeda Pharmaceutical): reports positive topline results from phase 2B trial trials of TAK-861; initiates phase 3 trials in H1

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -19.1% 8876.JP (Relo Group): reports Q3 net income attributable ¥3.81B, (15%) vs year-ago ¥4.47B

      • -11.7% 3659.JP (NEXON Co.): reports Q4 revenue ¥84.58B vs FactSet ¥94.74B, operating income ¥4.55B vs FactSet ¥16.07B

      • -11.6% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): reports Q3 revenue ¥3.108T vs StreetAccount ¥3.321T, operating income ¥141.63B vs StreetAccount ¥178.90B

      • -6.1% 543396.IN (One 97 Communications (Paytm)): reportedly in advanced discussions to acquire e-commerce firm Bitsila

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 34.14 or +0.09% to 36897.42

      • Hang Seng: (131.49) or (0.83%) to 15746.58

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: 5.60 or +0.07% to 7644.80

      • KOSPI: Closed

      • SENSEX: 35.46 or +0.05% to 71463.89

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.14 or +0.09% to 149.4570

      • $-KRW: (1.62) or (0.12%) to 1330.9300

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.15% to 0.6503

      • $-INR: +0.03 or +0.03% to 83.0096

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1790

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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