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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Hang Seng Closed, India Sensex (0.62), Australia ASX (0.39%) as of 03:10 ET

Feb 12 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia markets quiet Monday with many exchanges closed and those that were open mostly lower. Australia, New Zealand and India all fell a little, with only Jakarta advancing somewhat. Greater China, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Singapore among the markets closed for holidays. US futures a little soft, Europe opened higher. US dollar slightly lower, Asia currencies quiet. Treasuries not trading, Australia yields a little higher. Crude holding last week's gains, precious and industrial metals lower. Cryptocurrencies small down after bitcoin hit three-year highs last week.

    • A quiet day in Asia as much of the region celebrates lunar new year with newsflow light. Over the weekend, China January new loans were better than expected but outstanding loan growth fell to a record low. Early data from new year travel and leisure activity in China appeared encouraging although weak comparisons may have inflated headline figures. BOJ-speak again downplayed bank's exit from NIRP while RBNZ Governor Orr said New Zealand inflation was still too high. Indonesia Presidential election Wednesday, with frontrunner Prabowo tracking towards a first-round victory.

    • South City Holdings (1668.HK) said it is likely to default on the mandatory redemption payment for 9% Senior Notes due Oct-24. Xiaomi (1810.HK) says India's scrutiny of Chinese firms is unnerving smartphone component suppliers. Hibiscus Petroleum (5199.MY), Jadestone Energy (JDE.LN) and Carlyle Group (CG) are the final contenders to acquire Woodside Energy's (WDS.AU) Macedon oil and gas assets. CSL's (CSL.AU) phase three trial cardiovascular medication drug failed to meet primary endpoint; shares down sharply.

  • Digest:

    • Early China LNY travel activity encouraging:

      • Reuters discussed early indicators of China Lunar New Year travel activity on Friday. Cited Global Times noting record 1,873 passenger trains were added on one day across the railway network. Xinhua reported some 195.24M passenger trips recorded Friday, up 26.7% from the same day a year earlier. Highway traffic jumped 24.2% to 184.62M, while railway travel spiked 137.7% to 8.257M. However, recall that LNY fell in late January last year. Xinhua also reported box office revenues of CNY1.14B ($160M) as of 6 pm Saturday though with no comparisons. Still, Reuters article cited local media estimates Shanghai railway expected to see 475K passengers on Friday, up 61.7% on the same period in 2019 as an indication of recovery in the first holiday season free of Covid restrictions. However, also mentioned turbulent winter weather in central and southern regions has been the worst in years and expected to spoil hometown migration for hundreds of millions. Weather forecasts predict normal seasonal temperatures in most areas over the next few days.

    • China new loans reach record-high:

      • New loans totaled record CNY4.92T in January, above consensus CNY4.50T and follows CNY1.17T in the previous month. Capped off all-time high CNY22.75T for 2023, though 6.8% growth was the lowest in more than 20 years against the backdrop of weak macro environment (Reuters). Furthermore, outstanding loan growth of 10.4% y/y in January matched expectations though was the softest on record (Bloomberg). Main bright spots were noted in sequential sharp improvement, particularly in household loans. Policy support was broadly cited as a factor, though combined with seasonal buoyancy in the new year as lending quotas are replenished. Upside surprise in new loans contributed to aggregate total social financing of CNY6.5T vs consensus CNY5.55T and CNY1.94T in December. Outstanding growth remained steady at 9.5% y/y. Yet M2 money supply expanded 8.7% y/y, below consensus 9.3% and prior 9.7%. Some optimism on narrower gap vs in M1 (+5.9%), albeit latter typically sees technical volatility reflecting Lunar New Year effects. Overall takeaways remained subdued and largely focused on ongoing calls for further stimulus.

    • Prabowo closes in on first-round victory in Indonesia's Presidential election:

      • Indonesia's presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto said he is confident of winning more than 50% of vote that would secure office in first round Wednesday. Needs more than half of vote plus at least 20% of vote in half of Indonesia's provinces to win (AlJazeera). Weekend poll showed Prabowo on 51.8%, first time above 50% threshold, Anies Baswedan on 24.1%, Ganjar Pranowo 19.6%; second vote required in June if one candidate does not win outright vote in first round (Reuters). Prabowo strategists accused of using TikTok to rebrand former defense minister strongman, covering up dark past, to appeal to young voters (TheTimes). On final day of campaigning before cool-off period, Prabowo skipped press freedom event, last week failed to respond to rights questionnaire that Anies and Ganjar attended / responded to (Reuters). More than 205M people set to vote Wednesday in presidential, legislative elections.

    • BOJ's post-NIRP remarks imply rate hike is drawing closer:

      • Nikkei discussed perceptions that BOJ is implicitly sending policy normalization signals against the backdrop of consensus forecasts looking for negative rates to be scrapped in April. Suggested that BOJ's communication strategy appears to be shifting to managing forward expectations, offering as much detail as possible while maintaining enough ambiguity to preserve flexibility on future actions. Cited observations that BOJ rhetoric has advanced to the post-NIRP phase emphasizing the message that a rate hike cycle will be gradual, recalling Deputy Governor Uchida's speech last week. Article cited a BOJ source noting Uchida's skepticism toward 'rapid' hikes came as a result of internal discussions that stressed caution against cornering themselves into a pre-determined path. Also suggested board members careful not to go beyond signals offered by Governor Ueda. Story cited a speech by former board member Kiuchi remarking that the amount of time spent on explaining monetary policy was unusual, highlighting Uchida's discussion of wage-inflation cycle dynamics, which is directly linked to BOJ decisions.

    • Japan key earnings mixed:

      • Mazda (7261.JP) rounded out strong 9M performance among automakers with aggregate net profits among seven major names up 86% y/y to a record JPY5.907B ($39.6B) (Nikkei). Main support came from price hikes and higher output, accounting for more than JPY2T. Global sales growth led by US. FX windfall contributed about JPY650B. US exposure somewhat mixed in other sectors -- a notable tailwind for Daiwa House (1925.JP), logging record net earnings despite higher US home loan rates. However, FY guidance was reaffirmed below FactSet consensus. Recruit (6098.JP) reported above-guidance Q3 results and FY projected at a record-high, though blemished by bearish views on HR Technology division as US labor market cools (Nikkei). China factor also remains a focus -- Tokyo Electron (8035.JP) reported a sharp drop in 9M earnings though upgraded FY guidance, underpinned by China demand. Shiseido (4911.JP) embarked on major cost restructuring amid weak China sales including plans to slash its product line-up by a third. Unlisted Kioxia continues to attract attention, posting record 9M net loss of JPY254.0B, reflecting poor growth in NAND division.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +20.6% AD8.AU (Audinate Group): Reports H1 EBITDA A$10.1M vs year-ago A$4.3M

      • +16.1% APX.AU (Appen): To implement measures to achieve $13.5M in annualised cost savings to mitigate impact of loss of Google contract

      • +9.4% FID.AU (Fiducian Group): Reports H1 underlying NPAT A$8.2M vs year-ago A$7.0M

      • +7.1% JBH.AU (JB Hi-Fi): Reports H1 NPAT A$264.3M vs StreetAccount A$246.3M

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -12% SML.NZ (Synlait Milk): Guides H1 NPAT (NZ$21M)-(NZ$17M) vs prior guidance of down y/y and FactSet (NZ$6.2M)

      • -4.8% CSL.AU (CSL): Receives top-line results from Phase 3 AEGIS-II trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of CSL112; study did not meet primary efficacy endpoint of MACE reduction at 90 days

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: Closed

      • Hang Seng: Closed

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: (29.90) or (0.39%) to 7614.90

      • KOSPI: Closed

      • SENSEX: (450.30) or (0.63%) to 71145.19

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.33) or (0.22%) to 149.0240

      • $-KRW: (2.54) or (0.19%) to 1328.9900

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.02% to 0.6525

      • $-INR: (0.02) or (0.03%) to 82.9912

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.17% to 7.1922

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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