Feb 12 ,2024
Synopsis
European futures indicate a higher open. Asia markets quiet Monday as China and other markets in APAC are closed for Lunar New Year while Japan is shut for National Foundation Day. Those that are open are tilting downwards with the ASX and NZX both lower; India opened lower. US futures soft. US dollar slightly lower, Asia currencies quiet. Crude oil, precious and industrial metals lower. Cryptocurrencies small down after bitcoin hit three-year highs last week.
On the agenda for today, EU Commission due to publish its latest economic forecasts. Chancellor Scholz hosts Poland's PM Donald Tusk. EU's Dombrovskis participates in the European Semester Conf as part of EPW whilst EU's McGuinness meets with ECB's Cipollone, Central Bank of Ireland's Donnery and participates in EPW. ECB's Cipollone in panel discussion at 16:50 CET on 'Euro@25: What's next for the EMU?' during EPW. EU's Schinas delivers opening remarks and participates in a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conf. Kick Off event (begins 16-Feb when EU's von der Leyen, Vestager, Schinas, Johansson, Simson, Hoekstra, Schinas and Hahn among the participants). In central banks, ECB's Lane speech at 10:45CET and panelist at 14:15 at conf organised by BIS, ECB, Banco of Spain. ECB's Buch speech at 17:00CET at event at the House of the Euro. BOE's Bailey lecture at 18:00GMT at Loughborough University. Of note, in Finland the conservative former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb won Sunday's presidential election, securing 51.6% of votes according to final results. Stubb is pro-European and a strong supporter of Ukraine; this was the first election since Finland joined NATO.
Light earnings calendar for today; of note, Nordex (NDX1.GR) reports prelim FY EBITDA €2.0M vs FactSet €2.3M. Due to report are Michelin (ML.FP), from Nordics: Investment AB Latour (LATO.B.SS), Ratos (RATO.B.SS), Alimak (ALIG.SS), Humble (HUMBLE.SS), also Galp Energia (GALP.PL) and traffic stats from Flughafen Zurich (FHZN.SW).
In M&A, Tod's major holder, the Della Valle family, and L Catterton have entered into a framework agreement and launch voluntary tender offer over 36% stake in Tod's (TOD.IM) at €43/share; company to delist. Further out of Italy, Massimo Moratti S.a.p.A. di Massimo Moratti, Angel Capital Management S.p.A., and Stella Holding S.p.A. and Vitol B.V. have entered into a sale and purchase agreement pursuant to which the Moratti family has undertaken to sell to Vitol, shares of Saras S.p.A. (SRS.IM) representing ~ 35% of Saras's corporate capital, at a price per share equal to €1.75/sh.
Regional macro data releases out today are light with Jan CPI for Denmark and Portugal due.
Politics/ Macro/ World News
ECB's de Cos says March inflation, economic data will be key to assessing policy path (Bloomberg)
ECB's Panetta says disinflation at an advanced stage, sees rapid progress toward 2% target (Bloomberg)
Nato chief says Trump remarks may put US and EU lives at risk (Reuters)
UK-India trade deal talks hit impasse over social security payments (FT)
EU members strike deal to loosen stringent fiscal rules (Reuters)
German economy probably stalled at start of 2024,survey shows (Bloomberg)
UK set to learn if recession started after months of stagnation (Bloomberg)
Italy central bank chief says time for interest rate cuts is 'fast approaching' (FT)
Centre-right's Stubb wins close-fought Finnish presidential election (Reuters)
Hungary's president resigns in unusual setback for ruling party (Reuters)
Top company news
Earnings/updates
NDX1.GR (Nordex) -- prelim FY EBITDA €2.0M vs FactSet €2.3M [11 est, (€38)-39.5M]
ACAST.SS (Acast) -- Q4 EPS (SEK0.65) vs year-ago (SEK0.41)
IBE.SM (Iberdrola) -- provisional Q4 Net Electricity Production 43,071 GWh, +4.5% y/y
RATO.B.SS (Ratos) -- final FY earnings in line with preliminary release
VOS.GR (Vossloh) -- on track to achieve 2023 guidance - Börsen-Zeitung
M&A
TOD.IM (Tod's) -- L Catterton launches voluntary tender offer over 36% stake in Tod's at €43/sh; company to delist
TRN.IM (TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale) -- Terna reportedly weighing bid for up to €1.5B of high-voltage assets -- Bloomberg
SRS.IM (Saras) -- Moratti's family sells 35% stake in Saras to Vitol at €1.75/sh
BLV.FP (Believe) -- Consortium formed by TCV, EQT, together with Denis Ladegaillerie to make cash offer for all outstanding shares of Believe at €15/sh; board unanimously welcomes the proposal
UKCM.LN (UK Commercial Property REIT) -- Tritax Big Box in advanced talks to merge with UK Commercial Property REIT for shares - London Times
RNO.FP (Renault), 175.K (Geely) -- reportedly planning to close engine JV by end of February -- Reuters
ADE.NO (Adevinta) -- announces preliminary results of voluntary offer for all outstanding ordinary class A shares
SMS.LN (Smart Metering Systems) -- KKR on course to buy Smart Metering Systems - Telegraph
TLGO.SM (Talgo) -- Ganz-MaVag confirms talks with Talgo
EWIND.NO (Edda Wind) -- announces sale of vessel Edda Passat; terms not disclosed
Virgin Media O2 in early-stage discussions with TalkTalk - Telegraph
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- launches three new Factor Xa inhibitor coagulation tests to meet growing patient need
Other
SAP.GR (SAP) -- SAP and designated Chair successor Punit Renjen mtually agree to part ways
BATS.LN (British American Tobacco) -- releases combined performance and sustainability report
PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe) -- to repurchase 2M shares to cover employee Long term incentive plans
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- CEO defends pursuit of new oil and gas projects alongside investment in renewable power - FT
NWG.LN (NatWest Group) -- to lower bonus pool ahead of share offer - Sky News
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- SoftwareOne to combine the requested EGM with the upcoming AGM
Golden Goose, Puig, others among European firms looking to IPO as early as H1 -- Reuters
SBTi actions in the past month include net zero approval for Maersk; Carbon markets set to expand as China relaunches voluntary market (9-Feb)
Key rating changes
Upgrades
JUP.LN (Jupiter Fund Management) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
RSW.LN (Renishaw) -- to buy from sell at UBS
HTRO.SS (Hexatronic Group) -- to buy from hold at Danske Bank
Downgrades
AKRBP.NO (Aker BP) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
Initiations
ROO.LN (Deliveroo) -- buy at Deutsche Bank
PLX.FP (Pluxee) -- overweight at JPMorgan
Data
Nikkei closed
Hang Seng closed
Shanghai Composite closed
S&P futures (2.3) vs prior close of 5044.0
€-$ +0.0009 or +0.09% to 1.0793
$-¥ (0.08) or (0.05%) to 149.20
€-¥ +0.04 or +0.02% to 161.02
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