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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.86%, Hang Seng +2.48%, South Korea Kospi +1.34% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 16 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities closed largely higher Friday. The Hang Seng led the region higher with a 2.5% gain on encouraging LNY spending data. Japan's benchmarks closed on fresh multi-decade highs, strong gains for Singapore and Seoul too. India trading higher, Southeast Asia mostly up. Taipei saw some profit taking post yesterday's gains. Mainland China markets still closed. US futures mixed, Europe opened higher. US dollar tilting higher, yen weakened slightly. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields mixed. Crude oil flat, precious metals slightly higher, industrials mixed. Cryptocurrencies holding the week's gains.

    • Hong Kong markets surged Friday as early LNY data suggested travel and consumer spending had improved. Property stocks were also notably higher on news a Hong Kong court had ruled against Logan Group creditors over a liquidation petition, giving the company more time for financial restructuring. The Hang Seng mainland properties index rose more than 6.0% over the day.

    • Elsewhere, BOJ Governor Kuroda reiterated monetary easing measures will be reassessed when price stability target is in sight, and repeated financial conditions are likely to remain accommodative post-NIRP exit. RBNZ Governor Orr said economy moving in right direction but more work was needed to anchor inflation at 2%. Singapore non-oil export growth topped forecasts though skewed by a one-off surge in gold shipments; its budget late in the day focused on cost-of-living and retaining issues. Malaysia's economy grew by less in FY2023 than first estimates suggested; South Korea January unemployment number ticked lower from December's two-year record high to relieve some pressure on the BOK.

    • A Hong Kong court ruled against Logan Group (3380.HK) creditor petitions attempting to liquidate the company; stock sharply higher. Meituan (3690.HK) said its online platforms saw average daily consumer spending during the holiday period jump 36% y/y. San Miguel Group (SMC.PM) won a $3B contract to upgrade and operate Manila airport.

  • Digest:

    • China Lunar New Year travel resurging but purse strings still looking tight:

      • Bloomberg reported more than 61M rail trips were recorded in the first six days of the Lunar New Year holiday period, the highest in the last five years and 61% above last year's break. Xinhua, citing China State Railway, reported 14.25M trips on Wednesday alone, a daily record for the extended Spring Festival rush, and Thursday was estimated at 15.2M. Bloomberg cited local media reports noting hotel revenues on e-commerce platforms up more than 60% y/y, while average daily spending on Meituan online platforms were up some 36% from 2019. Optimism translating to stock market gains in Hong Kong featuring rallies some tourism names. However, cinema box office revenues tracking down about 2% y/y in the first four days of the holiday, suggesting lower per capita spending in an extension of consumer frugality seen last year. Article noted this year's LNY break is one day longer than last year (which will flatter y/y comparisons along with the low base as last year was still constrained by Covid restrictions). Added 26% drop in January passenger car sales as another sign of depressed propensity to spend.

    • PBOC seen keeping MLF rate unchanged:

      • Bloomberg poll found PBOC expected to keep MLF rate unchanged in the next operation that may be announced as soon as Sunday after the Lunar New Year holiday. Most see either a small net liquidity injection or little change compared with CNY499B ($69.4B) in maturing funds. Article reaffirmed ongoing predicament whereby stronger calls for stimulus are countered by yuan implications. Story recalled last month MLF rate was unchanged and met with disappointment, and PBOC announced a bigger than expected RRR cut shortly after. Cited thoughts it would be too soon to cut MLF rates after the recent RRR cut and a follow-up move would have a bigger impact on FX than economic/financial support. Also some debate over what would prompt PBOC action after MLF rate has held steady for the past five months amid weakening demand, property market turmoil and capital outflows. Recalled some mixed macro signals -- record low lending growth, Caixin manufacturing PMI expanding, official PMI in contraction. Markets still look for more easing, though policymakers may continue with piecemeal measures that are insufficient to lift sentiment.

    • Japan GDP seen remaining in contraction until Q2:

      • Narrow Nikkei poll of 10 economists found consensus looks for GDP to contract a further 0.3% q/q annualized in Q1, following the surprising 0.4% dip in the previous quarter. Some expectations of adverse impacts from the Noto Peninsula earthquake and disruptions from the Daihatsu scandal that halted shipments. However, forecasts were split between six positive and four negative. Q2 consensus looks for 1.8% growth with all respondents in positive territory. Story cited general optimism for a rebound in private demand alongside expectations corporate profit growth will feed through to pay raises in the upcoming shunto results, providing a boost to household sentiment. Forward projections in the 1.2~1.9% range through 1Q25, tracking above the Cabinet Office's estimate of 0.7% potential growth. External headwinds cited as the main risk to the outlook. Noted concerns that Trump would impose a 10% tariff on imports if he wins the next presidential election. Nomura estimated this could lift the US domestic demand deflator by 1.2% and renewed inflation pressure to erode consumer demand. Daiwa hypothesized if China real estate investment were to drop 25% in order to resolve the glut in housing stock, that would push Japan GDP down 1.1%.

    • RBNZ Governor Orr says more work needed to anchor inflation at 2%:

      • Bloomberg and NZ Herald cited RBNZ Governor Orr's remarks on Friday noting New Zealand's economy moving in right direction, but more work needed to anchor inflation at 2%. Orr pointed out headline inflation of 4.7% still well outside 1-3% target band and RBNZ preferred core inflation also still too high. Orr was speaking earlier on RBNZ's policy remit, making case that targeting 2% midpoint of 1-3% target range remains appropriate for New Zealand. Recent macro developments have fueled debate over RBNZ rate outlook with ANZ arguing more tightening needed to return inflation to midpoint. UBS also pushed out expected timing of first rate cut to November from August while raising terminal OCR forecast by 25 bp. However, others warned additional rate hikes amplify risk of policy mistake. Separate data has shown resilient consumption and labor market, while non-tradeabales inflation remains elevated. At the same time, 2Y inflation expectations fell to lowest since mid-2021, which led markets to pare back odds of RBNZ resuming its tightening cycle.

    • More Japanese blue chips committing to share price improvements:

      • Corporate governance enhancements remain an underlying tailwind for Japan equities as Nikkei cited TSE's monthly update showing the list of companies committing to stock performance enhancements grew to 726 among Prime Market constituents at January-end versus 660 in December. Additions include Daikin Industries (6367.JP), Rohm (6963.JP), Yakult (2267.JP) and Kagome (2811.JP). However, article noted ongoing absence of Toyota, (7203.JP), Keyence (6861.JP), Fast Retailing (9983.JP) and SoftBank (9984.JP). Recall some disappointment over the initial tally which was less than half the number of Prime names, though was generally seen as an encouraging starting point. Separately, Nikkei also discussed drive to minimize cross-shareholdings gained further traction after Sompo (8630.JP) on Thursday announced plans to divest all such stakes currently totaling about JPY1.3T ($8.6B). Follows FSA pressure to accelerate sales on the grounds that cross-shareholdings are conducive for price fixing of insurance premiums. Tokio Marine (8766.JP) has also reportedly indicated similar plans, signaling a meaningful shift within the casualty insurance sector.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +12.5% 3380.HK (Logan Group): Hong Kong court rules against creditor petitions to liquidate Logan Group

      • +9.4% 011780.KS (Kumho Petrochemical Co.): former executive reportedly initiates proxy battle at Kumho Petrochemical

      • +1.5% 8591.JP (ORIX): to acquire all issued shares in Santoku Senpaku by the end of March; terms undisclosed

      • +0.3% 4666.JP (Park24 Co.): reports January Japan Times PARKING net sales ¥13.14B, +6.7% y/y

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -17.2% 4704.JP (Trend Micro): reports FY revenue ¥248.69B vs guidance ¥248.50B and FactSet ¥250.76B, operating income ¥32.60B vs guidance ¥34.80B and FactSet ¥36.95B

      • -1.6% 2587.JP (Suntory Beverage & Food): Q4 revenue ¥398.3B vs FactSet ¥408.87B, operating income ¥25.0B vs FactSet ¥25.69B [8 est, ¥23.63-28.10B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • South Korea January

        • Unemployment Rate 3% versus 3.2% in prior month

      • Singapore January

        • Non-oil exports +16.8% y/y vs consensus +5.4% and (1.5%) in prior month

          • Non-oil exports +2.3% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and (2.8%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 329.30 or +0.86% to 38487.24

      • Hang Seng: 395.33 or +2.48% to 16339.96

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: 52.60 or +0.69% to 7658.30

      • KOSPI: 34.96 or +1.34% to 2648.76

      • SENSEX: 429.02 or +0.60% to 72479.40

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.34 or +0.22% to 150.2720

      • $-KRW: +7.63 or +0.58% to 1334.3700

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.05%) to 0.6520

      • $-INR: +0.02 or +0.03% to 83.0214

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1639

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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