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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.28%), Hang Seng +0.57%, Shanghai Composite +0.42% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 20 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mixed Tuesday. Greater China markets reversed early losses to close higher but the rally still fragile. Gains in Taiwan, India and Singapore, most of Southeast Asia higher. Japan, South Korea and Australia all lower. US futures lower, Europe opened slightly lower. US dollar flat but yen under some pressure, yuan flat after strong daily fixing. Crude off recent highs, silver down sharply but gold higher; industrial metals mixed as iron ore futures falls sharply in China, copper steady.

    • Asia markets without a coherent direction for a second day with a lack of overnight guidance, and Chinese markets under the likely influence of 'national team' programme buying. Volumes still notably lower than in previous weeks. The PBOC today cut its mortgage-linked 5Y LPR by the most ever and kept its 1Y LPR unchanged. Together with the unchanged MLF on Sunday, it indicates Beijing's clear intention to focus on stimulating the property market over an economy-wide programme that many economists are calling for. Market reaction in China to the PBOC moves and LNY spending figures continues to underwhelm with only tepid gains again in the country's equity, bond and forex markets since LNY holidays ended.

    • Elsewhere, RBA minutes leaned hawkish with members discussing whether to hike the cash rate by 25 bp given upside inflation risks. South Korea consumer confidence rose for the third straight month giving room for the BOK to hold on rates this Thursday as it waits for inflation to subside further. Australian earnings season continues to be marred by underwhelming results while Japan earnings continue to show profit growth, expanding margins and corporate governance reform.

    • Toyota Motor (7203.JP) affiliate Toyota Industries (6201.JP) may lose a certification for an excavator and forklift truck engines over alleged emission test cheating. BHP Group (BHP.AU) said government help over collapsing nickel prices may not be enough but that demand from China remains healthy; company reported lower-than-expected H1 profits. Sony Group (6758.JP) and Zee Entertainment (505537.IN) representatives are reported to have met in a last-ditch attempt to revive their proposed merger that was officially called off last month. Star Entertainment (SGR.AU) may lose its licence to operate a Sydney casino after failing to satisfy the regulator it is suitable to hold a casino licence. Strike Energy (STX.AU) said water flowed from a second natural gas test well in a Western Australian development; shares sharply lower. India's financial crimes agency has not yet found any forex breaches at Paytm (One 97 Communications, 543396.IN).

  • Digest:

    • China 5-year LPR cut by more than expected:

      • The 5-year LPR was cut 25 bp to 3.95%, more than the 15 bp expected in the Reuters poll, while 1-year was left unchanged at 3.45% which was in line. Bloomberg noted this was the biggest cut since the rate was introduced in 2019. Attention on 5-year rate mainly reflected growing urgency for more stimulus, especially for the property market. Expectations were further enhanced by a weekend Financial News report flagging the possibility of an imminent reduction in LPR, most likely in 5y. While MLF reference rate was left unchanged last week, economists had noted recent cuts to RRR and deposit rates would open some headroom for lower loan rates. LPRs moved into the spotlight following underwhelming price action in mainland China markets Monday after the Lunar New Year holiday. Market had expected a stronger reopen on the back of positive headlines on LNY spending as well as Hong Kong strength since Wednesday. Yet press continued to highlight that this year's LNY activity was inflated by the longer break (one day longer than last year) while per-capita spending was down ~10% y/y.

    • RBA debated whether to hike cash rate by 25 bp at its February meeting:

      • February RBA minutes showed members debated whether to hike cash rate by 25 bp or leave it unchanged. Rate hike argument based on the two year timeline before inflation expected to return to target. Said hiking would reduce risk of inflation not returning to target in acceptable timeframe. Tightening now would also not prevent easing policy if growth weakened more sharply than expected. However, opted to hold given inflation timeline risk had eased while labour market and consumption data had come in weaker than expected. Members agreed appropriate not to rule out additional tightening given potentially very high cost if inflation doesn't return to target within envisaged timeframe. Stressed data-dependent approach to policymaking, also taking into account outlook for economy and evolving risks. Assessed risks as balanced with most material being potential for persistently elevated inflation, insufficient recovery productivity growth and sharper-than-expected weakness in consumption.

    • China securities watchdog pledges prompt response to market concerns:

      • CSRC said it held series of seminars over last two days with market participants who proposed tighter scrutiny of IPOs and trading behavior to revive market confidence (Reuters). Regulator said it will respond to market concerns promptly and work together with all sides, including small investors, listed companies, asset managers and accounting firms, to promote capital market development (Xinhua). Seminars chaired by newly-installed CSRC head Wu Qing, who worked overtime without resting during LNY holiday (ShanghaiSecuritiesNews). Added CSRC would intensify inspection of companies planning to go public. Financial reports will be scrutinized and those who fabricate results will be severely punished. More supervision will be on securities lending practices as well. Noted urgency for Chinese leaders to stabilize stock market that dropped to five-year lows earlier this month. Bloomberg noted state-backed funds continued to purchase ETFs tracking China's stocks on first trading day after holiday break as traded values of several ETFs surged to record highs.

    • Iron ore slides as concerns over Chinese steel demand fester:

      • Iron ore futures down another 4% in China, extending Monday's pullback following run of gains that led into Lunar New Year break. SGX-listed iron ore at three-month low (Bloomberg). MySteel data showed rise in iron ore inventories at Chinese ports over holiday break while steel mill profitability dropped to lowest since mid-November (Mining.com). Iron ore strength has largely been underpinned by hopes that rate cuts and other property support measures will revive a real estate market that accounts for some ~35% of Chinese steel demand. However, property contraction deepened in December, reinforcing calls for stronger policy response that authorities have repeatedly shied away from. No signs yet policy measures translating to pick up in construction activity with non-manufacturing PMI's construction sub-index slowing sharply in January. China state researchers in late December predicted steel demand to contract further in 2024 amid construction weakness (Reuters).

    • Japanese firms positioned for stronger yen:

      • Nikkei analysis of 108 companies with a fiscal year ending in December found the average assumed year-end USD/JPY rate was 139.9 compared to prevailing market level of ~150. Follows 140.6 average in 2023. While current gap points to sizable windfall gains, most firms anticipate this to evaporate as US-Japan yield differentials narrow. Modal projection was also at 140, accounting for some 40% of estimates while remainder skewed somewhat towards lower levels. Article cited examples of firms signaling a swing to FX losses this year such as Canon (7751.JP), DMG Mori (6141.JP), while Yamaha Motor (7272.JP) sees windfall profit diminishing from JPY46.8B ($312M) in 2023 to JPY0.7B this year. Some are working to insulate against FX risk -- JT (2914.JP) deals in local currencies abroad while foreign currency bonds are basically fully hedged. Bridgestone (5108.JP) utilizing forward and currency swaps. Story briefly mentioned March FY-end companies that make up ~70% of listed names also largely expect yen to strengthen. Cited Daiwa Securities estimates that a JPY1 appreciation would push down current profits by 0.4%.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +8.2% 505537.IN (Zee Entertainment Enterprises): Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Sony reportedly hold talks to revive merger

      • +7.0% 3918.HK (NagaCorp): reports FY net income attributable $177.7M vs StreetAccount $162.0M

      • +5.0% 543396.IN (One 97 Communications (Paytm)): Enforcement Directorate reportedly has yet to find any FX management act violations by Paytm bank

      • +4.0% 1801.HK (Innovent Biologics): meets primary endpoint in Phase 3 clinical study (RESTORE-1) of IBI311 in Chinese subjects with TED

      • +1.0% 4568.JP (Daiichi Sankyo): BLA for Dato-DXd has been accepted in US for patients with previously treated advanced nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -1.2% 500238.IN (Whirlpool of India): promoter reportedly considering selling up to 24% stake in block deal via Goldman Sachs at floor price INR1230/share

      • -1.0% 6758.JP (Sony): Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Sony reportedly hold talks to revive merger

      • -0.7% 6201.JP (Toyota Industries): Japan's transport ministry reportedly set to take regulatory action as soon as this month against Toyota Industries over cheating on engine emissions standards

      • -0.2% 2433.JP (Hakuhodo DY Holdings): guides FY net income attributable ¥14.00B vs prior guidance ¥24.00B and FactSet ¥13.42B

      • -0.2% 753.HK (Air China): reports January traffic +69.1% y/y

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (106.77) or (0.28%) to 38363.61

      • Hang Seng: 91.90 or +0.57% to 16247.51

      • Shanghai Composite: 12.19 or +0.42% to 2922.73

      • Shenzhen Composite: 8.29 or +0.52% to 1612.46

      • ASX200: (6.10) or (0.08%) to 7659.00

      • KOSPI: (22.47) or (0.84%) to 2657.79

      • SENSEX: 250.87 or +0.35% to 72959.02

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.16 or +0.11% to 150.3710

      • $-KRW: +4.30 or +0.32% to 1336.8800

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.02% to 0.6533

      • $-INR: (0.06) or (0.07%) to 82.9605

      • $-CNY: +0.08 or +1.10% to 7.1975

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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