Feb 20 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity futures indicate a flat to lower open. Follows mixed session on Monday. Asian equity markets mostly higher. Nikkei and ASX little changed, but mild gains for Greater China, Seng Seng and Taiex. Kospi an outlier with moderate selloff. US equity futures lower with S&P off 0.2%.
No change in broader market themes. Markets still influenced by push-and-pull from fluctuations in central bank rate expectations. Disinflation narrative still largely intact despite firmer than expected US CPI and PPI releases, which saw a reduction in rate cut expectations. Fed rhetoric still supportive of rate cuts, but less than 50% chance for a May move. In Europe, no updated ECB-speak
of note. Remarks from BoE chief economist Pill sounded cautious on Monday. BoE Governor Bailey to testify to lawmakers with deputy Broadbent and MPC members Greene and Dhingra today.
Also in central banks today, Riksbank's Flodén speech at 9:45CET at an event organised by MSCI whilst Riksbank's Breman speech at 12:00CET at a seminar organised by the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce. Bundesbank's Balz speech at 15:45CET at event organised by Int'l Bankers Forum and Riksbank's Thedéen speech at 15:55CET at an event organised by Swedbank. BOE's Mutton panelist ay 18:30GMT at GBBC European Parliament event.
On today's agenda, EU's von der Leyen attends the European Industry Summit, hosted by Belgium PM de Croo whilst EU's Borrell co-chairs the EU-Georgia Association Council. Chancellor Scholz will take part in the Federal Association of German Employers' Associations (BDA) conf and in the evening delivers a speech at event in Hamburg, where Estonia PM Kallas will be a guest. UK MPs debate remaining stages Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill whilst committee topics include Trade (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) Bill, BOE Monetary Policy Reports at 10:15GMT (BOE's Bailey, others), industrial policy 11:00, Northern Ireland 11:30, one-off evidence session on flooding 14:30.
European macro data releases due today include Switzerland Jan trade balance, Finland Jan unemployment rate, Denmark Q2 preliminary GDP, Eurozone Dec construction output.
In earnings news, DACHs names kicked off the session with Temenos (TEMN.SW), ALSO Holding (ALSN.SW), Fresenius Medical Care (FME.GR) and Hamburger Hafen und Logistik (HHFA.GR) reporting Q4/FY numbers. In France, Bic (BB.FP) and Air Liquide (AI.FP) reported Q4/FY earnings with the latter hiking dividend by +8.5% and announcing free share attribution and loyalty bonus.
In Nordics, Bakkafrost (BAKKA.NO), Aker ASA (AKA.NO), Norconsult (NORCO.NO) and New Wave Group (NEWA.B.SS) are amongst others in the region to update investors with their latest numbers. Also due to report today are Barclays (BARC.LN), Antofagasta (ANTO.LN), InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG.LN), Carrefour (CA.FP) and The Navigator Co. (NVG.PL).
Politics/Macro/World News
UK Plc Seeks Share of Voter Tax Cuts Planned by Hunt in Budget - Bloomberg
EU Industry Calls for Green Shift Help to Keep Up With China, US - Bloomberg
TUC urges UK business to 'get on board' with Labour's worker rights plans - FT
China ready to work with EU to uphold free trade, multilateralism, foreign minister says - Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
TEMN.SW (Temenos) -- reports Q4 non-IFRS EPS $1.03, +4% y/y; guides FY24 EPS growth of +6-8%
SFZN.SW (Siegfried Holding) -- reports FY core net profit CHF128.1M vs FactSet CHF132.4M [9 est, CHF122.6-166.9M]
OERL.SW (OC Oerlikon Corp.) -- reports Q4 operational EBIT CHF47M, (35%) vs year-ago CHF72M
HHFA.GR (Hamburger Hafen und Logistik) -- reports preliminary FY EBIT €109M vs guidance €115-135M and FactSet €103M [1 est]
CPHN.SW (CPH Chemie + Papier Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF79M vs FactSet CHF80.6M
ALSN.SW (ALSO Holding) -- reports FY net income attributable €123.7M vs FactSet €145.8M [5 est, €135.1-152.2M]; raises dividend +4.3% y/y
FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care) -- reports Q4 EPS €0.88 ex-items vs consensus €0.62
D6H.GR (Datagroup) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.73 vs FactSet €0.72
France
BB.FP (Bic) -- reports Q4 adj. EPS €1.23 vs consensus €1.31; announces extraordinary dividend of €1.42 per share and up to €40M Share Buyback program
AI.FP (Air Liquide) -- reports FY net income €3.32B vs consensus €3.29B; hikes divi by +8.5% and announces free share attribution and loyalty bonus
Nordics
BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- reports Q4 Operational EBIT DKK356M vs FactSet DKK421.3M [9 est, DKK357-485M]
AKER.NO (Aker ASA) -- reports Q4 NAVPS NOK851 vs year-ago NOK900
BICO.SS (BICO Group) -- reports Q4 EPS (SEK12.42) vs year-ago (SEK3.29)
NORCO.NO (Norconsult) -- reports Q4 net income NOK74M vs year-ago NOK 56M
NEWA.B.SS (New Wave Group) -- releases updated financial goals; equity ratio should not fall below 40% vs prior target 30% over one business cycle
BNOR.NO (BlueNord) -- reports Q4 net income $27.1M vs FactSet $22.9M [5 est, $18-29M]; announces Distribution Policy for 2024 to 2026
DVYSR.SS (Devyser Diagnostics) -- reports Q4 EPS (SEK0.80) vs year-ago (SEK1.04)
TRUE.B.SS (Truecaller) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK0.33 vs FactSet SEK0.35
NOBI.SS (Nobia) -- reports Q4 EPS (SEK1.04) vs FactSet (SEK0.31) [4 est, (SEK0.75)-(0.02)]; no divi for FY23
Benelux
ACOMO.NA (ACOMO NV) -- reports FY EPS €1.52 ex-items vs FactSet €1.50 [1 est]; cuts dividend (8%) y/y
GREEN.BB (Greenyard) -- reports Q3 net sales €1.27B, +13% vs year-ago €1.12B
Southern Europe
ENG.SM (Enagas) -- reports FY net income €342.5M vs prior guidance €310-320M and FactSet €319.9M
Also due to report today
Earnings:
DACHs: JOST Werke (JST.GR),
Finland: Ponsse (PON1V.FH), Gofore (GOFORE.FH)
France: Carrefour (CA.FP)
Southern Europe: The Navigator Co. (NVG.PL)
Sweden: VBG Group (VBG.B.SS), SyntheticMR (SYNT.SS)
UK: Barclays (BARC.LN), Antofagasta (ANTO.LN), InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG.LN), Springfield Properties (SPR.LN), Petra Diamonds (PDL.LN)
M&A
SPGI (S&P Global) -- nearing deal to acquire Visible Alpha for more than $500M - FT
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- European Commission preparing to issue statement of objections cataloging certain risks arising from Lufthansa's investment in ITA Airways - Bloomberg
MEL.SM (Melia Hotels International) -- Moon GC&P Investments, S.L.U. to acquire 38.2% stake in Melia Hotels International for €300M
SDRY.LN (Superdry) -- co-founder Julian Dunkerton in talks with Davidson Kempner about supporting an offer for the company - Sky News
FNM.IM (FNM) -- signs the sale and purchase agreement for the previously disclosed acquisition of an 80% stake in Viridis Energia (post EU close 19-Feb)
Other
ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA) -- Michelin publishes global tire market data for January
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- warns of demand slump in construction sector - FT
Key rating changes
Upgrades
DOM.LN (Domino's Pizza Group) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
PAF.LN (Pan African Resources) -- to buy from add at Peel Hunt
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- to hold from reduce at HSBC
BZU.IM (Buzzi SpA) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
HEI.GR (Heidelberg Materials) -- to overweight from underweight at Barclays
Downgrades
HEIA.NA (Heineken) -- to underperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
SDZ.SW (Sandoz Group) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
SSAB.B.SS (SSAB) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
ICAD.FP (Icade) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
VCT.FP (Vicat) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
HOLN.SW (Holcim) -- to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
Initiations
TE.FP (Technip Energies) -- buy at Berenberg
Others
VIE.FP (Veolia Environnement) -- relaunched outperform at BNP Paribas Exane; prior rating was outperform
Data
Nikkei (0.28%) to 38363.61
Hang Seng +0.29% to 16203.07
Shanghai Composite +0.52% to 2925.80
S&P futures (11.0) vs prior close of 5019.8
€-$ (0.0007) or (0.06%) to 1.0772
$-¥ +0.23 or +0.16% to 150.37
€-¥ +0.13 or +0.08% to 161.96
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