Feb 23 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mostly higher Friday in a quiet session relative to recent days. Greater China markets mostly positive but lacked recent conviction. Seoul and Taipei carried on the week's positive momentum in tech-orientated boards, Australia ended higher as metal prices found a base. Singapore notably lower on more earnings misses. India a few points higher for now led by financials. Japan closed for a holiday. US futures higher, Europe flat in opening trades. US dollar regaining composure, AUD higher again but struggling against a technical barrier. Treasury yield curves mostly higher. Crude oil lower, precious metals lower, industrial metals finding support as an Australian port shuts for a cyclone.
Asia markets relatively quiet with few fresh catalysts to stir traders. Greater China closed mostly higher as markets shrugged off another set of dismal home prices for January, as well as a spike in property foreclosures and weak car sales. Nevertheless, China indices higher for the week on improved sentiment, likely 'national team' buying and selling restrictions. Separately, a Bloomberg report noted China's bond markets are signaling the PBOC is being too slow to cut rates just as the 10Y bond yield hit a 21-year low Friday.
Elsewhere, Singapore's inflation lower than forecasts despite January including a GST hike; New Zealand retail sales contracted for eighth straight quarter; Thailand exports were better than expected; RBI minutes leaned hawkish, joining the RBA and BOK this week on warning over inflation complacency.
US authorities are examining Nippon Steel's (5401.JP) China assets in a potential roadblock for its proposed acquisition of US Steel (X). A group of offshore creditors of China South City (1668.HK) are to launch a lawsuit against state-owned Shenzhen SEZ Construction & Development, which owns a 29% stake. Standard Chartered (2888.HK) announced a $1B share buyback as Q4 profits beat estimates. Woodside Energy (WDS.AU) is to sell a 15% stake in its Scarborough development to JERA, a Tokyo Electric (9501.JP) and Chubu Electric Power (9502.JP) joint venture, for A$2.14B ($1.4B). Vodafone Idea (532822.IN) is to consider raising funds via a rights issue, SPO or private placement with proceeds potentially used for 5G deployment.
Digest:
CSRC denies report that it imposes trading curbs on net selling at market open and close:
In response to an earlier Bloomberg report, CSRC said regulators do not limit share selling and only conduct regulatory measures against abnormal trading behaviors that seen as disruptive, denying trading curbs would be imposed on net selling of stocks during opening and closing hours of each trading day. Added it would guide exchanges to improve regulatory standards for abnormal trading and pledge crackdown on market manipulation, insider trading. Noted here have been raft of policy measures from Chinese authorities to prop up stock market, including stock purchases by state funds and clampdown on quant trading, after sharp falls that dragged benchmark indexes to five-year lows in early February. Recall Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses froze accounts of major quant fund Lingjun Investment for three days for breaching trading rules, adding pressure on broader hedge funds that deploy quantitative strategies (Reuters). Shanghai Composite extended gains into eighth session Friday, topping key psychological 3k level and erasing all YTD loss.
China new home prices decline for seventh consecutive month in January:
New home prices in China fell for seventh straight month in January with pace of decline narrowing to 0.3% m/m from 0.4% in December (worst since Feb-15), based on Reuters calculation of NBS data. However, prices were down 0.7% y/y, compared with 0.4% decline in December. 68 out of the 70 major cities saw declines in second-hand home prices from previous month, while all 70 were down from Jan-23. Price declines also narrowed in the second-hand market. Bloomberg noted China has been stepping up efforts to combat property market woes. Latest measures included policymakers' increased pressure on banks to boost property loans through so-called whitelists, which state-owned lenders have earmarked at least CNY124B ($17B) of such loans for projects qualified for support. Recall China also implemented largest-ever cut to 5Y LPR earlier this week in effort to support property sector, which will allow more cities to trim minimum mortgage rates for new homebuyers, though impact on existing ones will be limited given repricing will only be done by next year.
Singapore inflation eases unexpectedly as car ownership fee falls sharply:
Singapore's January headline and core inflation fell more than expected as 1% hike in GST was more than offset by a drop in 'Certificate of Entitlement' (CoE), a car ownership tax, as well as lower transport and housing costs (BusinessTimes). Headline inflation was 2.9% versus expectations of 3.8%, and 3.7% in December; core inflation used by MAS to determine monetary policy and which excludes CoE, fell to 3.1% y/y versus forecast 3.6%, and 3.3% in December. On m/m basis, headline CPI fell 0.7%, core inflation rose 0.6%. By sector, demand-pull inflation on balance eased, will give MAS more scope to loosen policy later in 2024: private transport prices fell to 2.9% from 5.0% as car prices, CoE premiums fell; housing fell to 2.1% y/y from 4.1% in December. Food 3.3% from 3.7% last month, other retail prices nudged higher. Energy prices surged 5.3% from 1.3% (Bloomberg).
Big week in Asia:
AI tailwinds: Nvidia's blockbuster results translated to outsized gains in Asian chip stocks, building on AI enthusiasm that followed TSMC's January update and strong sales forecast. Nikkei's record high: Nikkei hit all-time Thursday with bullish catalysts including strong Japan profit season, corporate governance reform push, yen weakness and dovish-leaning BOJ rhetoric. China markets higher: Regulatory intervention cited as a key driver of this week's rally on China benchmarks following reports authorities tightened restrictions on share sales. Dovetailed with positive takeaways from record 5Y LPR cut. Lunar New Year spending growth and latest policy support pledges were also highlighted. Central bank caution: Central banks pushed back against dovish expectations with RBA minutes not ruling out additional tightening, RBI minutes reinforcing hawkish bias and BOK saying premature to talk about rate cuts.
Sharp fall in New Zealand retail sales fuels recession concerns:
New Zealand retail sales shrunk 1.9% q/q in Q4, worse than 0.2% decline expected and Q3's downwardly revised 0.8% contraction (from 0.0%). Core retail sales dropped 1.7%, larger than 0.1% forecast and reversing Q3's downwardly adjusted 0.4% increase (from +1.0%). Nearly all industry groups went backwards with discretionary categories such as clothing footwear and personal accessories, and recreational products seeing some of the biggest declines, reflecting cost of living pressure on goods demand. Marked eighth consecutive quarterly fall in retail sales with magnitude of Q4's contraction raising risk New Zealand's economy entered recession at end of 2023 (recall New Zealand GDP unexpectedly shrunk 0.3% q/q in Q3). Data increases policy uncertainty leading into RBNZ policy decision on Wednesday. Economists mixed on likely outcome with ANZ recently calling for rate hike and others seeing RBNZ retaining its tightening bias. Hawkish views based on sticky inflation and wage growth, though weak consumption likely to heighten concerns of policy mistake.
Notable Gainers:
+11.2% 532822.IN (Vodafone Idea): board to meet on 27-Feb to consider raising of funds
+3.3% 6823.HK (HKT Trust & HKT): reports FY net income attributable HK$4.99B vs FactSet HK$4.91B
+2.6% 9922.HK (Jiumaojiu International Holdings): guides FY net income attributable CNY450M vs FactSet CNY448.6M
+2.3% 2888.HK (Standard Chartered): reports Q4 underlying EPS $0.30 vs FactSet $0.26; launches new $1B share buyback
+1.6% 9690.HK (Tuhu Car): guides FY adjusted net income attributable no less than CNY450M vs FactSet CNY271.4M
+1.1% 033780.KS (KT&G Corp): CEO candidate recommendation committee selects Kyung-man Bang as final CEO candidate
+0.4% 006800.KS (Mirae Asset Securities Co.): declares FY dividend KRW150/share; StreetAccount notes year-ago figure was KRW200/share
Notable Decliners:
-9.2% G13.SP (Genting Singapore): reports FY adjusted EBITDA SG$1.03B vs FactSet SG$1.08B
Data:
Economic:
China January
New house prices (0.3%) m/m vs (0.4%) in prior month (Reuters)
New Zealand Q4
Retail sales (1.9%) q/q vs consensus (0.2%) and revised (0.8%) in Q3
Core retail sales (1.7%) q/q vs revised +0.4% in Q3
Singapore January
CPI +2.9% y/y vs consensus +3.8% and +3.7% in prior month
Core CPI +3.1% y/y vs consensus +3.6% and +3.3% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: Closed
Hang Seng: (17.09) or (0.10%) to 16725.86
Shanghai Composite: 16.52 or +0.55% to 3004.88
Shenzhen Composite: 19.75 or +1.20% to 1669.85
ASX200: 32.40 or +0.43% to 7643.60
KOSPI: 3.43 or +0.13% to 2667.70
SENSEX: 68.37 or +0.09% to 73226.61
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.04 or +0.03% to 150.5770
$-KRW: +1.53 or +0.12% to 1329.0700
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.21% to 0.6570
$-INR: +0.04 or +0.05% to 82.8897
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.03% to 7.1969
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