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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.73%) to 7626.80, DAX +0.25% to 17600.18, CAC40 +0.04% to 7951.73, STOXX 600 (0.35%) to 494.59

Feb 28 ,2024

• Synopsis:

  • European indices ended mixed, finishing off the session's lows. Market consolidating recent gains ahead of key macro updates later this week, which include US PCE inflation data on Thursday and Eurozone CPI on Friday. Hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations (market now largely aligned with dot plot for 75 bp of easing this year) and stretched positioning (particularly CTAs) remain among the higher-profile overhangs. Ongoing worries over inflation outlook keeping policymakers cautious. Possibility remains also of a soft landing. Against this backdrop, more modest rate cut pricing seen in US, Eurozone, and UK. Regarding the ECB, the central bank may initiate rate cuts in June, but most on Governing Council suggest caution pointing to core inflation trends and wages (Reuters). Most analysts see quicker disinflation than previously forecast. After having adjusted forecasts to the upside in 2022 and 2023, ECB revised them downward quite significantly in December 2023 with analysts at BNP Paribas suggesting trend to continue. ECB may revise down 2024 headline inflation forecasts from 2.7% to 2.3%, while core inflation should be marginally revised from 2.7% to 2.6%. Lower inflation figures could lead to some downward revisions on ECB wages scenario, albeit slightly. Analysts note ECB likely to revise lower oil and gas price assumptions. Still, not all analysts agree. Natixis more hawkish, seeing slow pace of disinflation outside energy, and especially noting rise in prices of services excluding rents. Broker cited still-tight labour market, decline in labour productivity, weak supply of goods and services and structural inflationary mechanisms. Broker sees EZ inflation closer to 3% by year-end

  • On the reporting front, DACHS kicked off the session with Uniper (UN0.GR) FY earnings in line with preliminary release and guides 2024 adjusted EBITDA between €1.5-2.0B and EBITDA between €1.5-2.0B; Holcim (HOLN.SW) Q4 EBIT came in ahead of consensus and announced buyback of CHF1B for 2024; Auto1 Group (AG1.AV) FY adj EBITDA came in the middle of company's guidance of (€39M-€49M) at (€43.9M), with company also providing FY24 outlook while Implenia (IMPN.SW) numbers beat overnight. Out of France, Worldline (WLN.FP) earnings missed, Casino Guichard-Perrachon (CO.FP) metrics fell y/y with FY underlying net loss from cont ops (€1.45B) vs year-ago (€323M) with company not publishing a new 2024 outlook; Lagardere (MMB.FP) FY results mostly in line, bottom line slightly softer FY adjusted net income €252M vs FactSet €263.8M while ATOS (ATO.FP) reported prelim FY revenue €10.69B vs FactSet €10.88B and announced discussions with EPEI on the potential sale of Tech Foundations concluded with no deal reached. In the UK, Reckitt (RKT.LN) FY miss, Taylor Wimpey (TW.LN) beat while Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML.LN) FY numbers mixed. In Southern Europe, Aena S.M.E. (AENA.SM), Amadeus IT Group (AMS.SM), Indra Sistemas (IDR.SM), Endesa (ELE.SM) and EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.PL) reported FY/Q4 earnings. In Benelux, UCB (UCB.BB), Ageas (AGS.BB) and Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY.NA) issued FY earnings updates with the latter beating consensus and guiding 2024 adjusted EBITDA of ~ €450M vs FactSet €400M. Elsewhere, in Southern Europe, Aena S.M.E. (AENA.SM), Amadeus IT Group (AMS.SM), Indra Sistemas (IDR.SM), Endesa (ELE.SM) and EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.PL) reported FY/Q4 earnings

  • In M&A news, Swisscom (SCMN.SW) confirms advanced exclusive negotiations to acquire 100% of Vodafone Italia for preliminary purchase price of €8B on cash and debt-free basis. Swisscom plans to merge Vodafone Italia S.p.A. with Fastweb, Swisscom's subsidiary in Italy. Elsewhere, in the afternoon Ageas (AGS.BB) confirmed a 233p/share offer for Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG.LN); also, Glencore (GLEN.LN) exploring acquisition of (SHEL.LN) oil refinery and petrochemical units in Singapore

  • Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, a busy day in terms of earnings, with Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BB), bpost (BPOST.BB), Recticel (RECT.BB), NN Group (NN.NA), ASR Nederland (ASRNL.NA), SBM Offshore (SBMO.NA), Fugro (FUR.NA), Beiersdorf (BEI.GR), MTU Aero Engines (MTX.GR), Covestro (1COV.GR), KION GROUP (KGX.GR), AIXTRON (AIXA.GR), Nordex (NDX1.GR), Adecco (ADEN.SW), Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV), Compagnie de Saint-Gobain (SGO.FP), Veolia Environnement (VIE.FP), Getlink (GET.FP), Arkema (AKE.FP), Air France-KLM (AF.FP), Valeo (FR.FP), SES (SESG.FP), Adevinta (ADE.NO), Subsea 7 (SUBC.NO), Cellnex Telecom (CLNX.SM), Construccion y Servicios (ACS.SM), Grifols (GRF.SM), EDP-Energias de Portugal (EDP.PL), Prysmian (PRY.IM), London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.LN), CRH (CRH.LN), International Consolidated Airlines (IAG.LN), Schroders (SDR.LN) and Ocado Group (OCDO.LN)among few other companies to post updates. Macro-data will include France and Q4 final GDP, France and Spain, Feb preliminary CPI, France Jan consumer spending, UK Feb mortgage approvals and Jan M4 money supply and Greece Dec retail sales among few others

• Digest:

  • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

    • Outperformers: Autos & Parts +0.95%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.52%, Banks +0.50%, Insurance +0.43%, Construct & Mtls +0.16%, Media (0.04%), Retail (0.17%), Financial Svcs (0.30%)

    • Underperformers: Real Estate(1.82%), Technology (1.37%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.20%), Travel & Leisure (1.02%), Basic Resources (0.97%), Chemicals (0.86%), Food & Beverage (0.96%), Utilities (0.63%), Telecom (0.62%), Oil & Gas (0.54%), Health Care (0.44%)

  • Macro:

    • Nato allies reject Emmanuel Macron idea of troops to Ukraine (BBC)

    • Von der Leyen: Use Russian asset profits to buy ammo for Ukraine (Politico)

    • Germany reconsiders using nuclear weapons (Telegraph)

    • Bitcoin hits $60,000 as 'FOMO' rally gathers pace (Reuters)

    • UK Subsidies for Fossil-Fuel Power Plants Swell to Record (BBG)

    • Keir Starmer accuses Rishi Sunak's Tory party of promoting conspiracy theories (Guardian)

      • Related: UK general election poll tracker (FT)

    • Sardinia a major blow for Meloni and right-wingers ahead of EU election (Euractiv)

  • Company news:

    • Notable Gainers

      • +55.2% OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics €5.11, +1.83) -- partnership with AbbVie (ABBV)

      • +24.2% DLG.LN (Direct Line Insurance Group £2.03, +0.40) -- Direct Line Insurance's board unanimously rejected the Ageas proposal on 29-Jan-24

      • +15.8% ANCR.LN (Animalcare Group £2.26, +0.31) -- disposes majority shareholding in Identicare to BG Bidco 21 for cash consideration £24.9M

      • +13.0% ALNG.NO (Awilco LNG NOK7.92, +0.91) -- earnings

      • +13.0% VOC.SM (Vocento €0.59, +0.07) -- earnings

      • +12.4% LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group NOK44.94, +4.94) -- earnings

      • +9.6% GOGL.NO (Golden Ocean Group NOK137.45, +12.05) -- earnings

      • +9.5% SYDB.DC (Sydbank DKK354.00, +30.80) -- earnings; buyback

      • +8.2% AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood NOK78.55, +5.95) -- earnings

      • +8.0% GL9.ID (Glanbia €16.99, +1.26) -- earnings

      • +8.0% UCB.BB (UCB €104.90, +7.76) -- earnings

      • +6.5% IDR.SM (Indra Sistemas €17.07, +1.04) -- earnings

      • +5.6% COFA.FP (Coface €13.67, +0.73) -- earnings

      • +5.4% ITP.FP (Interparfums €52.40, +2.70) -- earnings

      • +4.5% NEXN.LN (Nexxen International £2.13, +0.09) -- settlement agreement, three-year strategic partnership with Alphonso Inc. and LG Electronics, Inc.

      • +4.3% CPI.LN (Capita £0.21, +0.01) -- contract extension

      • +4.2% CAF.SM (Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles €33.35, +1.35) -- earnings

      • +4.1% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings £1.84, +0.07) -- earnings

      • +3.9% VICO.SS (Vicore Pharma Holding SEK14.54, +0.54) -- earnings

      • +3.8% AFC.LN (AFC Energy £0.15, +0.01) -- ammonia cracker milestone achieved

      • +3.6% GMS.LN (Gulf Marine Services £0.18, +0.01) -- contract extension; raises FY24 adj EBITDA guidance

      • +3.6% SINT.SS (SinterCast SEK100.50, +3.50) -- earnings

      • +3.5% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €2.40, +0.08) -- FY market update; discussions with EPEI on potential sale of Tech Foundations concluded with no deal reached

      • +2.7% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK4.69, +0.12) -- earnings; initiated spin-off and separate listing of its Fueling division

      • +2.5% HICL.LN (HICL Infrastructure £1.25, +0.03) -- to dispose of its entire equity interest in US Northwest Parkway toll-road project to VINCI Highways SAS for net consideration of c. $232M; buyback

      • +2.2% TCM.DC (TCM Group DKK50.60, +1.10) -- earnings

      • +1.6% G24.GR (Scout24 €67.98, +1.04) -- earnings

      • +1.4% AENA.SM (Aena S.M.E. €176.25, +2.45) -- eanrings

      • +1.0% GLE.FP (Societe Generale €22.56, +0.23) -- Societe Generale in advanced talks with BPCE SA over sale of its equipment-finance unit SGEF -- Bloomberg; Credit Agricole (ACA.FP) preparing bids for SocGen's German-consumer finance business Hanseatic Bank as well as Swiss private-banking assets -- Bloomberg

      • +1.0% IMPN.SW (Implenia CHF31.35, +0.30) -- earnings

      • +0.7% DG.FP (VINCI SA €118.46, +0.82) -- HICL Infrastructure to dispose of its entire equity interest in US Northwest Parkway toll-road project to VINCI Highways SAS for net consideration of c. $232M;

      • +0.7% MMB.FP (Lagardere €20.70, +0.15) -- earnings; LVMH (MC.FP) offer to acquire magazine title Paris Match

      • +0.6% PAT.GR (Patrizia €8.22, +0.05) -- proposes a dividend of €0.34/share for FY23, +3% y/y; updates the group's dividend policy

      • +0.5% VID.SM (Vidrala €94.40, +0.50) -- Vidrala sells its Italian subsidiary to Verallia for €230M

      • +0.4% AD.NA (Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize €27.80, +0.10) -- will provide more details on its strategic initiatives at the Strategy Day in May - Annual Report

      • +0.4% DLN.LN (Derwent London £19.22, +0.08) -- earnings

      • +0.3% ADOC.FP (Adocia €9.76, +0.03) -- prelim FY sales

      • +0.3% ALV.GR (Allianz €248.70, +0.70) -- Allianz Australia seeking to sell Hunter Premium Funding - Australian Financial Review

      • +0.3% CLCO.NO (Cool Co. NOK120.30, +0.40) -- earnings

      • +0.2% GLEN.LN (Glencore £3.73, +0.01) -- Glencore exploring acquisition of Shell's oil refinery and petrochemical units in Singapore; CNOOC opts out - Reuters

      • +0.1% DLG.IM (De'Longhi €28.50, +0.04) -- De'Longhi finalizes business combination between Eversys and La Marzocco

    • Notable Decliners

      • -26.0% HFD.LN (Halfords Group £1.48, -0.52) -- trading update

      • -24.5% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.54, -0.17) -- earnings

      • -22.8% ALPHA.FP (Pharnext €0.44, -0.13) -- study update

      • -18.4% STJ.LN (St. James's Place £5.07, -1.14) -- earnings; provisions

      • -15.4% XBRANE.SS (Xbrane Biopharma SEK0.56, -0.10) -- prospectus in connection with partially guaranteed rights issue of ~ SEK 343M

      • -13.7% TEP.FP (Teleperformance €115.30, -18.30) -- focus on Klarna AI update

      • -13.1% RKT.LN (Reckitt £50.72, -7.66) -- earnings

      • -9.6% WLN.FP (Worldline €11.05, -1.18) -- earnings

      • -8.5% SOL.SM (Soltec Power Holdings €2.79, -0.26) -- earnings

      • -7.6% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF2.64, -0.22) -- collaboration with Viatris (VTRS)

      • -7.4% AG1.AV (Auto1 Group €3.72, -0.30) -- earnings

      • -7.1% FTK.GR (flatexDEGIRO €9.56, -0.73) -- earnings

      • -7.0% ALCOX.FP (Nicox €0.42, -0.03) -- ends mandate of CEO Andreas Segerros; appoints Gavin Spencer as new CEO with immediate effect

      • -6.8% UN0.GR (Uniper €55.44, -4.02) -- final earnings

      • -6.7% CNV.FP (Cnova €1.46, -0.11) -- earnings

      • -6.2% PION.B.SS (PION Group SEK6.54, -0.43) -- earnings

      • -4.8% PHM.SM (Pharma Mar €32.00, -1.62) -- earnings

      • -4.7% EDPR.PL (EDP Renovaveis €12.74, -0.63) -- earnings

      • -4.4% TW.LN (Taylor Wimpey £1.34, -0.06) -- earnings

      • -3.8% GEST.SM (Gestamp Automoción €3.06, -0.12) -- earnings

      • -3.7% GRE.SM (Grenergy Renovables €25.72, -1.00) -- earnings

      • -3.4% KENDR.NA (Kendrion €12.04, -0.42) -- earnings

      • -3.2% AGS.BB (Ageas €38.04, -1.27) -- earnings; Direct Line Insurance's board unanimously rejected the Ageas proposal on 29-Jan-24

      • -3.2% LXS.GR (Lanxess €23.31, -0.78) -- announces Impairment of goodwill and adjustment of at-equity book value of minority interest in Envalior

      • -3.1% DECB.BB (Deceuninck €2.23, -0.07) -- earnings

      • -2.8% BOSN.SW (Bossard Holding CHF205.50, -6.00) -- earnings

      • -2.5% ELE.SM (Endesa €16.16, -0.41) -- earnings

      • -2.4% ASM.NA (ASM International €566.30, -14.10) -- earnings

      • -1.9% RED.SM (Redeia Corporacion €14.54, -0.28) -- earnings

      • -1.7% TKWY.NA (Just Eat Takeaway.com €14.82, -0.26) -- earnings; Management, together with its advisers, continues to actively explore the partial or full sale of Grubhub.

      • -1.4% PHP.LN (Primary Health Properties £0.88, -0.01) -- earnings

      • -1.4% SCMN.SW (Swisscom CHF503.00, -7.00) -- Swisscom confirms advanced exclusive negotiations to acquire 100% of Vodafone Italia S.p.A for 8B in cash

      • -1.1% ABDP.LN (AB Dynamics £18.80, -0.20) -- trading update

      • -1.0% EDR.SM (eDreams ODIGEO €6.86, -0.07) -- earnings

      • -1.0% RBREW.DC (Royal Unibrew DKK466.10, -4.80) -- earnings

      • -0.9% FER.SM (Ferrovial €34.50, -0.30) -- earnings; buyback

      • -0.8% DRX.LN (Drax Group £4.16, -0.04) -- announces capacity market agreements

      • -0.6% SHEL.LN (Shell Plc £24.60, -0.14) -- Glencore exploring acquisition of Shell's oil refinery and petrochemical units in Singapore; CNOOC opts out - Reuters

      • -0.5% NORCO.NO (Norconsult NOK27.37, -0.13) -- Norconsult acquires consulting company Concreto AS; terms undisclosed

      • -0.4% GKP.LN (Gulf Keystone Petroleum £0.95, -0.00) -- Shaikan Field local sales update

      • -0.4% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF1.58, -0.01) -- renews CHF 50M share subscription facility with GEM; provides corporate update

      • -0.2% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £0.68, -0.00) -- Swisscom confirms advanced exclusive negotiations to acquire 100% of Vodafone Italia S.p.A for 8B in cash

      • -0.2% VRLA.FP (Verallia €34.16, -0.06) -- Verallia to acquire Vidrala's Glass Business in Italy for €230M in enterprise value

  • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

    • Benelux: Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BB), Ackermans & van Haaren (ACKB.BB), bpost (BPOST.BB), Recticel (RECT.BB), Van de Velde (VAN.BB), NN Group (NN.NA), ASR Nederland (ASRNL.NA), SBM Offshore (SBMO.NA), Fugro (FUR.NA)

    • DACHs: Beiersdorf (BEI.GR), MTU Aero Engines (MTX.GR), Covestro (1COV.GR), SCHOTT Pharma & Co. (1SXP.GR), KION GROUP (KGX.GR), AIXTRON (AIXA.GR), Nordex (NDX1.GR), Befesa (BFSA.GR), PATRIZIA (PAT.GR), Villeroy & Boch (VIB3.GR), Adecco (ADEN.SW), Emmi (EMMN.SW), VZ Holding (VZN.SW), Clariant (CLN.SW), Bystronic (BYS.SW), Meier Tobler (MTG.SW), Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV), Andritz (ANDR.AV), EVN (EVN.AV)

    • France: Compagnie de Saint-Gobain (SGO.FP), Veolia Environnement (VIE.FP), Getlink (GET.FP), Arkema (AKE.FP), Air France-KLM (AF.FP), Valeo (FR.FP), SES (SESG.FP), Exclusive Networks (EXN.FP), Bonduelle (BON.FP), Atos (ATO.FP)

    • Nordics: Adevinta (ADE.NO), Subsea 7 (SUBC.NO), Solstad Offshore (SOFF.NO), Magnora (MGN.NO) Elekta (EKTA.B.SS), NTG Nordic Transport Group (NTG.DC)

    • Southern Europe: Cellnex Telecom (CLNX.SM), Construccion y Servicios (ACS.SM), Grifols (GRF.SM), Acciona (ANA.SM), Grupo Catalana Occidente (GCO.SM), Vidrala (VID.SM), Viscofin (VIS.SM), Acerinox (ACX.SM), Melia Hotels International (MEL.SM), Prosegur Compania de Seguridad (PSG.SM), ATRESMEDIA Corporacion de Medios de Comunicacion (A3M.SM), EDP-Energias de Portugal (EDP.PL), Prysmian (PRY.IM), HELLENiQ ENERGY (ELPE.GA)

    • UK/Ireland: London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.LN), CRH (CRH.LN), Haleon (HLN.LN), International Consolidated Airlines (IAG.LN), Schroders (SDR.LN), The Weir Group (WEIR.LN), Howden Joinery Group (HWDN.LN), Ocado Group (OCDO.LN), Spectris (SXS.LN), Man Group (EMG.LN), Shaftesbury Capital (SHC.LN), Serco Group (SRP.LN), Drax Group (DRX.LN), Hammerson (HMSO.LN), Vesuvius (VSVS.LN), CVS Group (CVSG.LN), Spire Healthcare (SPI.LN), PPHE Hotel Group Ltd. (PPH.LN), Hunting (HTG.LN), Dalata Hotel (DHG.ID), Cairn Homes (C5H.ID)

    • Trading Update: Genfit (GNFT.FP), ABIONYX Pharma (ABNX.FP)

    • CMD/events: PUMA (PUM.GR), Komplett (KOMPL.NO)

• Data:

  • Economics:

    • Italy Feb

      • Business Confidence 87.3 vs consensus 88.7 and prior revised 88.1 from 88.3

      • Consumer Confidence 97.0 vs consensus 96.9 and prior 96.4

    • Belgium

      • Q4 GDP +1.5% y/y vs preliminary +1.6%; +0.3% q/q vs preliminary +0.4%

      • Feb CPI +3.2% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior +1.8%

    • Switzerland Feb ZEW Expectations 10.2 vs consensus (17.0) and prior (19.5)

    • Ireland Jan Retail Sales +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and prior revised +2.7% from +3.9%

    • Finland Jan PPI (5.4%) y/y vs consensus (6.2%) and prior (7.6%)

    • Denmark Jan Retail Sales +5.8% y/y vs consensus +4.0% and prior revised +4.7% from +4.5%

    • Sweden Jan

      • Trade Balance SEK13.3B vs consensus SEK3.0B and prior SEK3.8B

      • PPI (2.3%) y/y vs consensus (3.7%) and prior (7.7%)

  • Markets:

    • WTI Crude (Apr 24): ($0.38) or (0.48%) to $78.49

    • €-$ (0.0007) or (0.06%) to 1.0837

    • £-$ (0.0029) or (0.23%) to 1.2655

    • €-£ +0.0013 to 0.8564

    • S&P 500 (0.12%)

    • Performance year-to-date

      • FTSE 100: (1.38%)

      • DAX: +5.07%

      • CAC: +5.42%

      • MIB: +7.51%

      • Stoxx 600: +3.26%