Feb 29 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mixed Thursday in a choppy day's trading. Mainland China markets higher as Shenzhen outperformed, Hong Kong ended slightly lower. Japan markets worked their way back to the flatline after a shaky start, Seoul lower but Taipei higher post Wednesday's holiday. India tracking the flatline, Southeast Asia mixed. US futures a few points lower, Europe slightly higher at the open. US dollar unchanged, yen strengthened, AUD recovered some ground after overnight falls. Treasury and JGB yields higher, China 10Y yield at two-decade low, 30Y yield at record low. Oil lower, precious metals flat, industrial metals higher.
Asia markets struggled for direction Thursday with many benchmarks drifting into the month end, consolidating gains and ahead of key US and China economic data tonight and tomorrow. February proved to be the best month for the region's equity markets since November although gains were uneven as China and tech-orientated markets outperformed, while Australia's dipped on a wobble in commodity prices. However, overarching narrative has barely changed over the month with investors still looking for structurally supportive measures in China to aid its stuttering economy just as technology-driven exchanges benefited from another leg higher in AI-related stocks.
Today, Japan retail sales beat expectations but only just; industrial production shrank at its quickest pace since May-20, weighed by autos BOJ board member Takata the latest to voice optimism in achieving inflation target as more economists see March as 'live' meeting for a rate hike. Australian retail sales came in softer than expected, private capex came in higher than forecasts though this had mixed implications for GDP growth. New Zealand business confidence slipped while inflation metrics continued to ease; RBNZ Governor Orr reiterated bank was confident inflation is on track to return to 1-3% band in H2 2024. China's CRSC directed quant funds to phase out DMA products blamed for fueling volatility in January.
Welcia (3141.JP) and Tsuruha (3391.JP) are to merge with Aeon (8267.JP) to create the world's fifth largest drugstore company. Activist investor City Index Eleventh disclosed a 5.4% stake in Aozora Bank (8304.JP), the Japan-based US lender that reported a loss last month because of ties to commercial property. Alibaba (9988.HK) announced substantial price cuts to internet-based products and services. XPeng (9868.HK) and Volkswagen (VOWG3.GR) said their first joint venture car will be an electric SUV after they signed a platform and software collaboration agreement. Walt Disney (DIS) and Reliance Industries (500570.IN) signed a $8.5B agreement to merge their respective media operations in India, with Reliance investing $1.4B into the venture.
Digest:
BOJ's Takata says stable 2% inflation on the horizon, calls for discussion on exit strategies:
In a speech, BOJ board member Takata said conditions have reached the stage where achievement of stable 2% inflation can be envisaged. Cited meaningful changes in wage and price setting behavior -- seeing a virtuous cycle between corporate profit growth and sustained wage rises in response to elevated inflation, as well as a fundamental breakout from the historically entrenched disinflationary norm. Also noted progress in passthrough from wage hikes to prices, as well as burgeoning services price growth contributing more to headline inflation. Noted that wages have high inertia, and increases tend to push up inflation in a sustained manner. Also encouraged by growth in base wages, which have a larger impact on consumption than temporary bonuses. Looking ahead to this year's shunto talks, noted more companies are indicating bigger pay raises than last year. If this is realized on aggregate, this would be conducive for more optimism about sustained income growth. Dynamics have permeated to the final stage in the form of raising inflation expectations. Called for the need to consider exit strategies -- mentioning specific examples such as removing YCC/NIRP and reviewing the overshooting commitment -- while remaining cognizant of the balance between easing impacts and side effects.
China long-duration bonds extend rally as traders ramp up bets on further monetary easing:
China's benchmark 10Y government bond yield dipped to 2.345% in early Thursday trading, fresh low since Jun-02. Yield on 30Y notes has dropped 11 bp in past five sessions, fastest pace for such period since Aug-22 according to Bloomberg-compiled data. 2.47% yield for ultra-long bonds is also at lowest level in nearly two decades. Rally in long-duration bonds is a sign that investors are increasing bets on fresh monetary easing to consolidate nascent economic recovery. Cited OCBC strategist view that investors pushing yields lower as PBOC is firmly on easing side while additional fiscal stimulus is yet to come. SecuritiesTimes cited market watchers who attributed bond market rally to still weak economic fundamentals, larger-than-expected reduction of RRR and 5Y LPR in February and expectations of continuous monetary policy easing with more funds flowing into bonds. Added more banks allocate extra liquidity to bonds due to limited other lending channels and pressure on NIM squeeze.
Japan industrial production unravels post-pandemic recovery, retail sales remain lackluster:
Industrial production fell 7.5% m/m in January, below expectations of a 6.8% decline, and follows 1.4% rise in the previous month. Latest reading was the sharpest drop since May 2020 in the depths of the pandemic shock, bringing down index level to its lowest since August 2020. Autos the big driver, down 18.6%, while electrical machinery dropped 10.6% and tech-related electronic parts & devices fell 5.8%. Aggregate shipments fell a faster 8.3%, though still left inventories down for a second straight month. Core capital good shipments also fell sharply. METI survey projections point to gains of 4.8% in Feb and 2.0% in Mar, somewhat less bearish than last month's guidance, though remains on track for notable decline in Q1. Retail sales rose 0.8% m/m vs consensus 0.5% and follows 2.6% decline in December, marking a slow start to Q1. Growth led by sharp rebound in apparel, followed by food & beverage and appliances. Largely negated by weakness in autos (second straight decline), fuel and other category including drugs and cosmetics. Overall, combination of weak cyclical momentum and lackluster consumer demand remain consistent with recent bearish views on Q1 with early consensus polls showing expectations of a third straight quarterly contraction. Q1 output drop to some extent seen reflecting factory suspensions at Toyota group, set to fully resume operations 4-Mar.
Australian retail sales recover, but growth remains tepid:
Australian retail sales rose 1.1% m/m in January, recovering from December's upwardly revised 2.1% drop (from 2.5% drop). Discretionary categories rebounded from December with household goods +2.3% (from -8.5%), clothing, footwear and personal accessories +2.4% (from 5.7%), and department stores +1.7% (from -8.1%). Recall sharp fall in discretionary goods retailing in December widely viewed as payback for November Black Friday sales bump. Café, restaurant and takeaway food services spending saw modest growth in January, though boosted by sporting events ABS noted when smoothing out month-to-month volatility, retail turnover has been virtually unchanged over recent months. Retail sales grew 1.1% through year to January, well down on 7.7% growth recorded same period year earlier. Retail trend remains illustrative of households under pressure from cost of living, reinforcing views RBA will remain on hold in March.
New Zealand business confidence slips, RBNZ Governor Orr confident on inflation trajectory:
New Zealand ANZ business confidence index eased to 34.7 in February from 36.6 in January, then highest since mid-2014. Details more positive with firms' own activity outlook continuing to improve. There were further increases in export intensions while investment intentions rose to highest since late 2021. Inflation pressures continued to ease, albeit at a mild pace. Cost expectations and pricing intentions remain very high and trending sideways, while inflation expectations fell but are still above 4%. Speaking earlier RBNZ Governor Orr reiterated central bank is confident OCR is restricting demand but will need to remain at current restrictive level to ensure inflation returns to 1-3% target (Reuters). Said economy performing as expected while expressing high degree of confidence inflation will return to target band later this year. RBNZ meeting takeaways leaned dovish with economists continuing to anticipate rate cuts beginning in H2 2024.
Notable Gainers:
+23.5% 968.HK (Xinyi Solar Holdings): reports FY net income attributable HK$4.19B vs FactSet HK$3.74B, revenue HK$26.63B vs FactSet HK$25.63B; CEO Lee Yau Ching resigns, effective 1-Apr; vice chairman Lee Shing Put appointed new CEO
+9.5% 8304.JP (Aozora Bank): activist City Index Eleventh discloses 5.42% stake
+6.2% 3382.JP (Seven & i): reportedly considering selling Ito-Yokado store as part of reform
+3.1% 6770.JP (Alps Alpine Co.): reportedly to divest 46.7% stake in Alps Logistics
+2.0% 8725.JP (MS&AD Insurance): four major Japanese nonlife insurers reportedly to sell entire cross-shareholdings worth around ¥6.5T following price-fixing scandal
+0.6% 028260.KS (Samsung C&T): ISS reportedly supports proposal of activist funds related to shareholder return policies
Notable Decliners:
-18.9% AWX.SP (AEM Holdings): reports FY net income attributable (SG$1.2M) vs year-ago SG$126.8M,revenue SG$481.3M, (45%) vs year-ago SG$870.5M; CFO Leong Sook Han resigns to pursue new interests, effective 16-Ap
-6.6% 9888.HK (Baidu): reports Q4 revenue CNY34.95B vs FactSet CNY35.11B, adjusted EBITDA CNY8.12B vs FactSet CNY8.65B
-4.4% 1515.HK (China Resources Medical Holdings): guides FY net income attributable CNY250M vs restated year-ago CNY270M
-4.1% 3391.JP (TSURUHA Holdings): Tsuruha to acquire all of Welcia Holdings and AEON to acquire at least 27.2% and less than 51% of Tsuruha
-2.4% 4062.JP (IBIDEN Co.): launches ¥70B EUR-JPY convertible bonds due Mar-31, conversion price set at ¥8,983/share
Data:
Economic:
Japan January
Retail sales +0.8% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and (2.6%) in prior month
Retail sales +2.3% y/y vs consensus +2.0% and +2.4% in prior month
Industrial production (7.5%) m/m vs consensus (6.8%) and +1.4% in prior month
METI survey projections +4.8% in February, +2.0% in March
Australia
Q4 private capital expenditure +0.8% q/q vs consensus +0.5% and revised +0.3% in Q2
Equipment, plant and machinery capex (0.1%) vs +0.5% q/q in Q3
January private sector credit +0.4% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and +0.4% December
January retail sales +1.1% m/m vs consensus +1.5% and revised (2.1%) in December
New Zealand February
ANZ Business Confidence +34.7 vs +36.6 in January
Markets:
Nikkei: (41.84) or (0.11%) to 39166.19
Hang Seng: (25.41) or (0.15%) to 16511.44
Shanghai Composite: 57.32 or +1.94% to 3015.17
Shenzhen Composite: 55.49 or +3.36% to 1706.98
ASX200: 38.30 or +0.50% to 7698.70
KOSPI: (9.93) or (0.37%) to 2642.36
SENSEX: 157.69 or +0.22% to 72462.57
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.98) or (0.65%) to 149.7110
$-KRW: (2.53) or (0.19%) to 1332.8500
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.18% to 0.6507
$-INR: +0.01 or +0.01% to 82.9259
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.07%) to 7.1927
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