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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.50%, Hang Seng +0.04%, Shanghai Composite +0.41% as of 03:10 ET

Mar 04 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Many Asian benchmarks finished mixed in a choppy day's trading Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 finally broke through 40K to end on a fresh record high while Australia's ASX reached an intraday record before settling back. India's Nifty adding a few points to records set in a special Saturday session. Main China benchmarks spiked into the close to finish a little higher. South Korea bounced back after a few down days, Taipei gained as TSMC reached a record high. Southeast Asia was mostly lower. US futures a few points lower, Europe opened a little higher. US dollar flat, Asia currencies also largely unchanged. Treasury and JGB yields higher across tenors. Industrial metals down with iron ore sharply lower, crude futures lower, precious metals also weaker. Cryptocurrencies sharply higher.

    • Asia stocks trending higher in another technology-driven rally. A notable split between tech-orientated bourses in South Korea, Taiwan and the Nikkei 225, set against non-tech exchanges in Southeast Asia and the broad Topix. China markets with their own drivers and showed caution ahead of the National People's Congress that formally opens tomorrow, trading down for most of the day before a pre-close rally. Economists expect the NPC to set a FY GDP growth target of 5.0%, a CPI target of 3.0% despite the current deflation, and a budget deficit of 3.0-3.3% of GDP. They'll also be watching for stimulus signals, especially those to help the consumer but deep reform announcements are thought unlikely.

    • In macro developments, South Korean industrial production unexpectedly fell while manufacturing PMI expansion eased amid softer growth in output and demand. Japan corporate survey showed unexpected surge in Q4 capex growth, boding well for positive GDP revisions. Negative implications for GDP from surprise contraction in Australian business inventories; job advertisements and building approvals also fell. Thailand the latest country to consider regulation against naked short selling as its stockmarket continues to sell off.

    • Electric Power Development (J-Power) (9513.JP) launched a A$380.9M ($248.7M) bid for Genex Power (GNX.AU); Genex stock up sharply. Toyota Motor (7203.JP) is to invest $2B over the next few years in Brazil, according to the country's VP. China Vanke (2202.HK) is considering the spin off and listing of three logistical parks in mainland China as it seeks to raise funds. Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) is preparing a liquidation lawsuit in Hong Kong against Shimao Group (813.HK) after finding the debt restructuring terms unacceptable. A Manila Electric (MER.PM), San Miguel (SMC.PM ) and Aboitiz Power (AP.PM) joint venture have acquired a Philippine LNG unit worth $3.3B.

  • Digest:

    • China stimulus expectations remain modest ahead of NPC:

      • Reuters preview indicated expectations of modest stimulus ahead of the NPC commencing Tuesday and may disappoint calls for a detailed roadmap of bold policies to address deep structural imbalances. Analysts and policy advisers anticipate more focus on near-term economic support -- Premier Li may approve measures to improve the business environment and changes to promote technological innovation but is unlikely to roll out major reforms. Government growth target seen remaining at around 5% this year, though accompanied by longstanding calls that this would require more fiscal stimulus after last year's 5.2% growth was likely flattered by low base effects due to the pandemic in the prior year. Budget deficit target seen at 3% of GDP with particular attention on plans for CNY1T ($139B) in off-budget special sovereign bonds. Cited Citi estimates that fiscal thrust in combination with flat LGSB quota of CNY3.8T would contribute ~1 ppt to GDP growth. Policy advisers suggested public investment may be steered towards "new infrastructure" such as 5G, AI and big data given diminishing returns on traditional projects. PBOC projected to continue with gradual easing, citing usual constraints from capital outflow and yuan risks. Market looks for expansion in pledged supplementary lending (PSL) scheme to support the property market.

    • Japan MOF survey capex spikes, positive implications for GDP revisions:

      • MOF corporate survey showed headline capex grew 16.4% y/y in Q4, much stronger than consensus 2.8%, following 3.4% in the previous quarter. Strength was broadly based across manufacturers and nonmanufacturers, both logging double-digit growth with many subsectors surging. Result was much stronger than the Q4 GDP first estimates that showed 2.2% growth in nominal capex and upward revision could be enough to turn overall GDP growth positive. Seasonally adjusted measure accelerated to 10.4% q/q following 2.3% in Q3. Investment strength comes against the backdrop of mixed profit cycle dynamics as current profit growth slowed in year-ago terms and fell sequentially for the second straight quarter despite steady expansion in topline sales. Survey confirmed transportation equipment as a key driver reflecting auto demand, showing sales up 19.2% y/y and current profits up 80.7%. Another focus area has been food & beverages as prices hikes helped sales growth of 18.9% (third straight quarter in double digits) though translated to the first decline in current profits in a year. Aggregate current profit margins were steady at 6.5% as softer manufacturing was offset by improvement in nonmanufacturing.

    • OPEC+ extends output cuts in Q2:

      • OPEC+ statement said several countries to extend voluntary cuts of 2.2M bpd in Q2. Russia also extended cutbacks by 471K bpd mostly via production than exports. Added that voluntary cuts will be returned gradually subject to market conditions. Announcement was largely expected though Reuters noted Russia's contribution was a surprise, adding to positive announcement effects. Outlook remains uncertain as OPEC projection of 2.25M bpd in demand growth this year contrasting with IEA forecast of 1.22M bpd, while IEA sees oil supply to grow a record ~103.8M bpd, almost entirely driven by countries outside OPEC+. Bloomberg focused on price dynamics as current crude level of ~$80 per barrel compares with Fitch Ratings estimates that Saudis need $90 level to fund economic policies and Russia seeking revenue to continue the war against Ukraine. Still, article noted the ongoing compliance issue, as countries have not fully delivered on commitments as Russian output in January aligned with cutbacks promised almost a year ago. Story flagged tougher collective decision to come at the next scheduled meeting on 1-Jun which will set policy for H2.

    • BOJ March vs April rate hike debate revived by latest rhetoric:

      • Nikkei discussed latest BOJ rate hike expectations, noting March calls regained some confidence after board member Takata's speech last week. Article noted dissonance versus Governor Ueda's remarks at the San Paulo G20 that stable achievement of the inflation target is still not yet in sight and work continues to confirm a virtuous wage/price cycle. Shunto results from 13-Mar remains the critical factor. Recalled some thoughts that Q4 GDP contraction would dampen rate hike expectations, but Ueda described the soft print as a "temporary lull" after the Covid reopening and still saw a gradual recovery in place. Story highlighted the March camp is slowing growing, citing a Friday Nikkei poll that found four out of 13 economists picked March, while three of the eight in the April camp acknowledged the possibility of a March move. Debate continues with March forecasts implying BOJ has reached a sufficient confidence level while others see the benefit of waiting for more information available by April. JGB market reflected elevation in March risks with 2-year yield reaching 0.19% Friday, its highest since May 2011. Furthermore, recent comments from Prime Minister Kishida and Finance Minister Suzuki expressed a laissez-faire stance with no particular objection to a hike in either month.

    • South Korea industrial output unexpectedly falls, services activity firmer:

      • January activity data were mixed. Industrial production fell 1.3% m/m in January, contrasting with expectations of a 0.9% rise. Prior month was revised to a 0.5% decline from preliminary 0.6% increase, leaving manufacturing activity lower for the second straight month. Shipments fell a sharper 5.6% though only translated to a slight 0.4% rise in inventories. Year-ago comparisons were broadly buoyant amid LNY effects, showing domestic manufacturing shipments rebounded 9.7% y/y from a 2.8% decline in December while exports grew 9.1% from prior 14.3%. Recall the growing optimism toward customs trade exports, which gained further momentum in February after adjusting for calendar effects (Reuters). Service sector output edged up 0.1% m/m following 1.1% in December with retail sales up 0.8% after prior month's 0.6%. Investment activity was also mixed with equipment down 5.6% following prior 2.3% growth, while construction bounced a sharp 12.4% to mark the first rise in three months. More timely data showed February manufacturing PMI eased to 50.7 in February from 51.2 in January, remaining in expansion territory for the second straight month. Output, new orders and exports grew at a slower pace. Anecdotal responses indicated rising demand linked to increased confidence and new product launches.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6.7% 2057.HK (ZTO Express): added to SZSE-HKEX stock connect

      • +4.8% 4185.JP (JSR Corp): reportedly to commence tender offer for JSR Corp within this month

      • +3.0% 7733.JP (Olympus): sees earlier recovery than anticipated from Noto Peninsula earthquake

      • +2.2% 8801.JP (Mitsui Fudosan Co.): to implement 3-for-1 stock split

      • +1.8% 533278.IN (Coal India): reportedly "very confident" about reaching FY production target of 780M

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -7.6% 2202.HK (China Vanke): proposes spin-off and separate listing on SZSE of 3 warehouse logistic parks in PRC

      • -2.0% 068270.KS (Celltrion): reports Q4 operating profit KRW18.42B vs year-ago KRW100.63B, revenue KRW382.60B vs FactSet KRW503.42B

      • -1.0% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): Japan's FTC reportedly to warn company for underpaying over 30 subcontractors; reportedly in advanced talks to partner with Fisker, which could include investing $400M

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan Q4

        • MOF corporate survey capex +16.4% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and +3.4% in prior quarter

          • Ex-software capex +11.7% y/y vs +1.7% in prior quarter

          • Total capex +10.4% q/q sa vs revised +2.3% in prior quarter

      • Australia

        • Q4 Business inventories (1.7%) vs consensus 0.0 vs +1.2% in Q3

          • Q4 company profits +7.4% vs consensus +1.1% and revised (1.6%) in Q3

        • January building approvals (1.0%) m/m vs consensus +4.0% and revised (10.1%) in December

        • January ANZ-Indeed job advertisements (2.8%) m/m vs revised +3.4% December

      • South Korea January

        • Industrial production (1.3%) m/m vs consensus +0.9% and revised (0.5%) in prior month

          • Industrial production +12.9% y/y vs consensus +10.0% and revised +6.1% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 198.41 or +0.50% to 40109.23

      • Hang Seng: 6.53 or +0.04% to 16595.97

      • Shanghai Composite: 12.28 or +0.41% to 3039.31

      • Shenzhen Composite: 3.12 or +0.18% to 1728.52

      • ASX200: (9.80) or (0.13%) to 7735.80

      • KOSPI: 31.91 or +1.21% to 2674.27

      • SENSEX: 119.43 or +0.16% to 73864.78

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.22 or +0.14% to 150.3370

      • $-KRW: (2.19) or (0.16%) to 1329.7400

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.06%) to 0.6523

      • $-INR: +0.05 or +0.06% to 82.8929

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.02% to 7.1981

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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