Mar 08 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian equities finished higher across the region Friday. Greater China bourses all stronger with Hang Seng leading although it finished the week with a small loss. Fresh record highs in Australia and Taiwan, South Korea at 21-month high on tech gains. Japan's Nikkei and Topix recovered some of Thursday's losses but finished off their peaks of the day. Southeast Asia all higher. India closed for a holiday. US futures a little higher, Europe opened flat. US dollar flat, AUD and yen strengthened, yuan unchanged again. Treasury yields mixed. Crude oil higher, gold pushing higher again, industrial metals mixed.
Asia equities finished the week with solid gains across the region with stronger sentiment coming through from US indices overnight. Tech stocks and related benchmarks the big movers Friday with Taiwan higher again today to take its weekly gain to more than 5%, and successive daily record highs. Today, TSMC posted a more than 9% y/y gain in Jan-Feb sales and gave a rosy outlook statement, sending the stock 3% higher and give an almost 14% weekly advance.
Quiet in terms of macro developments. Japan household spending shrunk by most since Feb-2021 amid heavy fall in auto sales but market focus still on BOJ's potential exit from NIRP. Ahead this weekend, China inflation data out Saturday with CPI forecast to have turned positive for first time since Aug-23. Producer prices expected to have shrunk at a similar pace to January, marking 17th straight month of deflation.
Nikon Corp (7731.JP) is to buy California-based cinema camera manufacturer RED.com for undisclosed terms. Nissan Motor (7201.JP) faces scrutiny over underpayment to subcontractors relative to agreed contractual terms. Kaisa Group (1638.HK) will face a new liquidation petitioner after a major group of bondholders asked the bond trustee to replace the original petitioner Broad Peak. TSMC (2330.TT) revenue rose 9.4% in Jan-Feb period as AI development offset declining iPhone-related sales. Indosat (ISAT.IJ) is to sell a minority stake in its fiber business in a deal worth potentially more than $1B.
Digest:
Japan labor union wage demands consolidate, seeking biggest pay hikes in 31 years:
Nikkei, citing a Rengo announcement, reported average wage hikes demanded by affiliate unions came to 5.85% for this year's shunto talks, up 1.36 ppt from last year and the biggest since 1993. Overwhelming 92.6% of unions calling for higher monthly wages. Rengo President Tomoko Yoshino confirmed a strong consensus among unions to raise real wages and cited acute labor shortages, especially at small and midsize firms. Also noted there was a large variance in corporate financial performance last year due to lingering Covid effects, while majority of companies seeing improvement this year. Article reiterated most major companies expected to conclude wage negotiations on 13-Mar, with Rengo planning to announce its first tally of results on 15-Mar. Developments follow yesterday's market recalibration of BOJ rate hike expectations as board member Nakagawa added to hawkish rhetoric and revived speculation of a March move credited for yesterday's yen strength and equity weakness (Nikkei).
Asia-ex equities attract surge of fresh capital on AI and China reforms:
Reuters reported overseas investors spent net $10.82B buying shares in Asia ex-China and ex-Japan in February just as China stocks rebounded and regional technology stocks surged on AI boom. Said stock exchanges in South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, India, Thailand, Vietnam and Philippines saw net inflow that contrasted with $779M net selling in January. South Korea attracted most new funds with $6.1B and Taiwan with $3.7B, reflecting technology's dominance among long investors, and leading to Kospi and Taiex outperformance over other benchmarks during February; noted MSCI Asia Pac-ex Japan index also bounced back from steep losses January. Said Indonesia attracted $647M, India $186M, Philippines 129M, and Thailand $93M. Cited analyst who said India's relative low investment total possibly due to upcoming general election, while overall pattern of overseas investment may turn more conservative given Fed staying higher for longer on rates, rising trade tensions.
China adds gold reserves for 16th straight month as price hits record high:
China increased holdings of gold to its reserves for 16th straight month in February, adding 390K troy ounces last month to a total of 72.58M troy ounces, as country seeks to diversify foreign reserves beyond US Treasuries (SCMP). Demand from global central banks has partly fueled gold's recent rally with Singapore and Poland also stepping up purchases. Prices have also been boosted by growing bets on Fed rate cuts later this year, geopolitical tensions and China's economic woes. Reuters noted surge in gold prices to record highs could hurt consumption during wedding season in India, which is an intrinsic part of country's marriage ceremony. Meanwhile retail demand in China is robust as consumers have chased the precious metal as alternative to investments in stocks and properties, both languished in past years. However HSBC cautioned retail buying in emerging markets might not be sustained as central banks might slow purchases of gold at record-high prices.
Japan household spending off to a slow start in Q1:
Household spending fell 6.3% y/y in January, below expectations of a 4.1% decline. Follows 2.5% drop in the previous month, marking the 11th straight slide and the sharpest since February 2021 in the depths of the pandemic shock. Most categories were weaker, led by housing, transportation & communications and leisure. Autos were notably down 30.4%, much weaker than the nominal 3.5% decrease according to previously reported METI retail sales data. Seasonally adjusted spending also fell 2.1% m/m following a 0.5% decline in December, marking a soft start to Q1. MIIC ceased publication of seasonally adjusted real components. BOJ's real consumption activity index released yesterday rose 0.6% m/m in January though also softer than Q4 average. Outsized weakness in durable goods spending was generally consistent with auto drags, though offset by growth in non-durables and services. Recall that early consensus polls pointed to a contraction in Q1 GDP reflecting domestic demand weakness amid inflation pains, compounded by temporary effects from automaker shipment suspensions amid the certification scandal among Toyota units.
China market regulators probes bond investments at rural banks:
Bloomberg reported PBOC is investigating bond investments made by rural financial institutions amid concern banks choosing securities' speculation over lending to small firms. China's sovereign bond prices spiked sharply this week to send 10Y yield to 2.28% and 30Y to 2.43%, both historical lows, after growth stimulus at this week's NPC disappointed investors and PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng said RRR cuts were possible, monetary toolbox 'still ample'. PBOC said to have requested banks' bond-trading activities over past three years, counterparty details, investment necessity, and plans on how they intend to support small companies. Authorities also said to be worried market reversal could expose banks to capital-eroding losses especially given likely glut of CGBs later this year that will include CNY1T ($139B) of ultra-long special government bonds. CGB yields stabilized Thursday; yuan almost unchanged this week against notably weaker dollar.
Notable Gainers:
+14.8% 1913.HK (Prada): reports FY revenue €4.73B vs SA €4.67B, EBIT €1.06B vs SA €1.03B
+7.8% 9532.JP (Osaka Gas): issues business plan for FY25; guides FY25 operating profit ¥123.5B vs FactSet ¥120.50B; upgrades dividend guidance, guides FY final dividend ¥40.00/share vs prior guidance ¥32.50/share
+4.2% 000660.KS (SK Hynix): reportedly invests $1B (KRW1.324T) in advanced chip packaging aiming to grow, improve final steps of chip manufacturing process
+2.3% 1928.JP (Sekisui House): reports FY revenue ¥3.107T vs FactSet ¥3.087T, operating income ¥270.96B vs FactSet ¥268.60B
+2.0% 6098.HK (Country Garden Services Holdings): guides FY revenue CNY42.40-42.81B vs FactSet CNY42.77B
+1.0% 5802.JP (Sumitomo Electric Industries): expects to record ¥63.0B extraordinary gain from sale of investment securities
+1.0% 8306.JP (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial): CFO Tetsuya Yonehana to step down, deputy CFO Jun Togawa appointed replacement, effective 1-Apr.
+0.6% 66.HK (MTR Corp.): reports FY underlying business profit HK$6.36B vs StreetAccount HK$6.11B
Notable Decliners:
-2.9% 4661.JP (Oriental Land Co.): Keisei Electric Railway to sell 16.4M shares in Oriental Land; terms undisclosed
-2.6% 9626.HK (Bilibili): reports Q4 adjusted EPADS (CNY1.34) vs FactSet (CNY1.49)
-0.0% 7731.JP (Nikon Corp): to acquire cinema camera manufacturer RED.com; terms undisclosed
Data:
Economic:
Japan
January household spending (6.3%) y/y vs consensus (4.1%) and (2.5%) in prior month
Spending (2.1%) m/m vs revised (0.5%) in prior month
February bank lending +3.0% y/y vs +3.1% in prior month
January current account balance ¥438.2B vs consensus (¥330.4B) and ¥744.3B in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 90.23 or +0.23% to 39688.94
Hang Seng: 123.61 or +0.76% to 16353.39
Shanghai Composite: 18.62 or +0.61% to 3046.02
Shenzhen Composite: 18.27 or +1.07% to 1719.71
ASX200: 83.30 or +1.07% to 7847.00
KOSPI: 32.73 or +1.24% to 2680.35
SENSEX: Closed
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.13) or (0.09%) to 147.9280
$-KRW: (5.93) or (0.45%) to 1318.2600
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.19% to 0.6631
$-INR: (0.04) or (0.05%) to 82.6850
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.06%) to 7.1885
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