Mar 11 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian equities mixed Monday. Japan ended with steep losses while selling pressure concentrated in semiconductor names following biggest NVDA sell-off since May on Friday. SK Hynix and TSMC were notable drags on Korea and Taiwan. ASX weighed down by commodity producers. Meanwhile Greater China stocks advanced with CSI 300 advancing to new YTD high and ChiNext almost recouping YTD losses. India trading lower. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures trading lower. DXY flat, while Aussie down, yen stronger against most currencies on latest BOJ tightening speculation. Crude slightly lower, gold continued to edge up, bitcoin sharply higher to hit above $70,400 as new record high in Asian afternoon.
Lots of attention on Japanese stocks which had its biggest daily drop since 4-Oct amid BOJ tightening speculation and last week's US chip stocks retreat. Selling corresponded with yen appreciation while JGB yields continued to rise with 2Y rate highest in 13 years. Latest reports noted growing number of BOJ policymakers warming to idea of March rate hike amid encouraging signs in shunto negotiations. BOJ is also weighing scrapping YCC in addition to NIRP at March's meeting, in favor of new quantitative framework targeting volume of JGB purchases than the 10Y yield. Japan also avoided technical recession with revised Q4 GDP expanding at annualized clip of 0.4% in Q4, better than 0.4% contraction in preliminary estimate but lower than consensus 1.1%.
In other developments, Saturday's data showed China CPI inflation turned positive for first time since August with February's rise the largest in 11 months due to spending linked to Lunar New Year, robust holiday travel also drove core inflation to hit more than two-year high. However, producer prices fell by more than expected for longest streak since 2016, underlining pervasiveness of deflation in upstream sectors. China's housing minister pledged to support property developers in distress with "reasonable financing" but not those facing insolvency. China's NPC session also concluded on Monday with no major change in policies. South Korea's exports fell more than 13% y/y in first ten days of March but sales of semiconductors were a bright spot.
Nintendo (7974.JP) will release a new Super Mario animated movie in April 2026 in partnership with Illumination. TSMC (2330.TT) reportedly to win more than $5B in US federal grants to support chip plant in Arizona. Chinese regulators asked financial institutions to enhance support for China Vanke (2202.HK). PE firms Hillhouse Capital, Boyu Capital and CDH Investments in advanced talks to invest $5-6M in GDS Holdings (9698.HK)'s data center business outside China
Digest:
BOJ said to be leaning towards March rate hike:
Reuters cited multiple sources indicating a growing number of BOJ board members are warming to the idea of ending negative rates this month on expectations of substantial pay hikes in this year's shunto negotiations. Likely to be part of broader overhaul of the monetary stimulus program encompassing YCC and asset purchases. However, article noted a decision is a close call with still no board consensus on whether to move in March or April. Many board members closely watching results of labor talks on 13-Mar with first Rengo tallies slated for release 15-Mar. Sources said large firm agreements still seen setting the tone for small firms and significant pay raises likely to increase probability of a March hike as board members may not need to wait until April. Another source suggested they still might wait for the next Tankan report due next month as well as the branch managers meeting before making a decision. Article cited a Jiji report Friday suggesting BOJ is considering replacing YCC with a new quantitative framework to guide future JGB purchases in order to prevent market distortions. However, this story did not gain much traction with no coverage in the Nikkei over the weekend.
Japan Q4 GDP revised to smaller than expected expansion:
GDP was revised to 0.4% q/q annualized growth in Q4 from first preliminary contraction of 0.4%, though below consensus 1.1%. Q3 contraction was revised to 3.2% from 3.3%. Main focus on Q4 private capex, revised to 2.0% q/q growth from preliminary 0.1% contraction vs consensus 2.5%, adding 0.3 ppt to headline GDP. Follows surprising strength in MOF corporate survey capex, though impact was less than expected. Remainder came from rounding errors as no other component saw an upgrade. Private consumption was revised down marginally to a 0.3% q/q decline from 0.2% while public demand was also lowered to 0.3% contraction from 0.2% -- both having negligible impact on GDP contribution. Nominal GDP growth was also revised up to 2.1% annualized from 1.2%. Overall implications limited -- while correcting a technical recession from the first print, early consensus polls pointed to another contraction in Q1 with auto sector drags from temporary halts to production and shipments prompted by certification falsifications cited as a key factor, compounding ongoing overhang from sluggish consumer demand. Prospects for auto sector rebound on resumption of activity was cited as a positive for Q2.
China housing minister pledges 'reasonable' aid for distressed developers, banks asked to step up Vanke support: :
Nikkei cited comments from housing minister Ni Hong on the sidelines of the NPC on Saturday, pledging to support property developers in distress with "reasonable financing," but not those facing insolvency. Signaled the ministry would coordinate with the financial supervision regulator to support "developers fairly on a project basis" while also warning that developers facing insolvency and unable to operate "should be declared bankrupt or undergo restructuring according to market principles." Ni disclosed that over CNY200B ($28B) in financial assistance had been approved by Chinese commercial banks as of the end of February for over 6,000 property projects with private companies accounting for about 82%. Ni cited the mantra that "housing is for living, not for speculation" (recall NPC takeaways noted the omission of this language in the Government Work Report) and reaffirmed government's goal of containing overheating in the property market, emphasizing the need to consider not only the immediate future but also the medium and long term. Separately, Reuters sources said State Council is coordinating efforts to extend more financial support to China Vanke (2202.HK) after regulators met with financial institutions.
China CPI logs surprising rebound on LNY effects, but PPI deflation deepens:
CPI rose 0.7% y/y in February, above consensus 0.3%. Follows 0.8% decline in the previous month, marking the first positive reading since August 2023 and the highest since March. NBS largely cited Lunar New Year effects led by elevated food and service prices as pork prices turned positive for the first time in ten months while various travel and entertainment categories rose well in double digits in sequential terms. Also noted headline CPI Jan-Feb average was flat on the year. Overall service prices rose 1.9% while goods edged down 0.1%. Core inflation accelerated to 1.2% from 0.4%. In contrast, PPI fell 2.7% vs consensus and prior month's 2.5% decline. On the margins, deterioration was led by upstream prices, outweighing slightly narrower decrease in downstream prices, though both stably tracking in negative territory. NBS said base effects accounted for 2.3 ppt of the decline, while underlying momentum added 0.4 ppt. Press takeaways indicated caution against calling a trough given domestic demand remains weak. Focus turns to stimulus permeation though recall that economists concurred that policy announcements to date would be insufficient to turn momentum positive with 2024 CPI forecasts below 1%.
Iron ore sell-off continues amid disappointment over China policy support:
Iron ore futures sharply lower Monday with Dalian contracts down 4%, extending year-to-date fall to almost 20%. Pullback attributable to stimulus disappointment at China NPC with authorities appearing to favor new economy sectors than commodity-intensive infrastructure (Bloomberg). Non-manufacturing PMI's construction sub-index continued softening trend in February with activity near lowest since mid-2023. Construction new orders also remain in contraction. This has corresponded with continued buildup of iron ore inventories with port stockpiles hitting highest levels in a year (Bloomberg). Iron ore's outlook also intrinsically linked to China's property market which accounts for ~35% of nation's steel consumption. However, leaders signaled only targeted property market support, while reappearance of phrase "housing is for living, not for speculation" viewed as further indication main focus is on bubble prevention. Moreover, China's property market stuck in a deep downturn with value of new home sales down 60% y/y in February (Bloomberg).
Notable Gainers:
+18.2% 9698.HK (GDS Holdings): Hillhouse, Boyu, CDH reportedly in advanced talks to invest in GDS Holdings's ex-China data-center business
+14% UD2.SP (Japfa): confirms holders Santosa family regularly engage in exploratory discussions regarding various corporate actions
+5.4% 034020.KS (Doosan Enerbility): reportedly receives KRW150.0B order for supply of steam turbine equipment to Saudi Arabia
+3.4% 2202.HK (China Vanke): China reportedly asks financial institutions to improve funding support to China Vanke
+2.5% 7733.JP (Olympus): agrees with Taewoong Medical to rescind the acquisition of Taewoong Medical, effective 7-Mar
+1.3% 960.HK (Longfor Group Holdings): guides FY core net income, net income attributable to decline 45-50% y/y
+1% 7974.JP (Nintendo): creating new animated film based on world of Super Mario Bros planned for release in theaters on 3-Apr-26
Notable Decliners:
-9.7% 489.HK (Dongfeng Motor Group): guides FY net loss attributable to not exceed (HK$4.0B); reports February vehicle production 108,801 vs year-ago 171,322
-2.8% 8309.JP (Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings): completes 6.7M-share buyback for ¥20.0B
-1.2% 763.HK (ZTE): reports FY revenue CNY124.25B vs StreetAccount CNY126.06B, EBIT CNY10.26B vs StreetAccount CNY11.09B
Data:
Economic
China
February CPI +0.7% y/y vs consensus +0.3% and (0.8%) in prior month
PPI (2.7%) y/y vs consensus (2.5%) and (2.5%) in prior month
Japan
Q4 revised GDP +0.4% q/q annualized vs consensus +1.1% and preliminary (0.4%)
GDP +0.1% q/q vs consensus +0.3% and preliminary (0.1%)
Markets:
Nikkei: (868.45) or (2.19%) to 38820.49
Hang Seng: 234.18 or +1.43% to 16587.57
Shanghai Composite: 22.44 or +0.74% to 3068.46
Shenzhen Composite: 36.47 or +2.12% to 1756.18
ASX200: (142.80) or (1.82%) to 7704.20
KOSPI: (20.51) or (0.77%) to 2659.84
SENSEX: (332.41) or (0.45%) to 73786.98
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.36) or (0.25%) to 146.7100
$-KRW: (9.91) or (0.75%) to 1307.3200
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.11%) to 0.6619
$-INR: (0.02) or (0.02%) to 82.7333
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.07%) to 7.1810
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