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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.20%) to 7727.42, DAX (0.03%) to 17936.65, CAC40 +0.04% to 8164.35, STOXX 600 (0.32%) to 504.80

Mar 15 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets ended mixed Friday. Spain +1%, Portugal +1.2% the main outperformers while Denmark (1.9%) the main underperformer. Stoxx Europe 600 ended the session (0.3%) lower but still saw some marginal WTD gains. Path of least resistance for markets has remains to the upside despite big rate backup, anchored by the soft-landing thesis and expectations for eventual Fed rate cuts. AI optimism also remains a key tailwind. Several high-profile catalysts for market next week with NVDA GTC, Fed decision (dot debate likely to heat up following inflation data), potential BoJ NIRP exit, BoE decision.

    • Light calendar in Europe today. France Feb final CPI was revised higher. ECB speakers including Rehn, Stournaras and de Guindos all guiding towards June rate cut. In the UK, Bank of England (BoE) survey found that British public's expectations for pace of inflation over coming year have fallen over the past three months (Reuters). Median expectations for inflation for the next 12 months posted lowest since August 2021 at 3.0% in February vs 3.3% in November. Expectations for 12 months after that unchanged at 2.8%, while longer-term expectations fell to 3.1% from 3.2%. To note, CPI was 4.0% in January and December, still double BoE's target. Inflation data on 20-Mar, just a day before the BoE meeting, expected to decline further. Bank likely to reiterate rates need to "remain restrictive for sufficiently long" and for "an extended period", although chief economist Pill noted that (gradual) rate cuts still consistent with this stance. Analysts suggest first "live" meeting may be June, in line with Fed and ECB, citing Q2 data as last year's increases in services inflation through April and May was major factor in BoE's decision to re-accelerate rate hikes. However, consensus still sees August as policy easing date, given availability of fresh forecasts. BoE expected to stand pat next week with a 6-2-1 split.

    • Among European sectors today, Telecoms outperformed on back of Swisscom's acquisition of 100% of Vodafone Italia for €8B on a debt and cash free basis with the aim of merging it with Fastweb, Swisscom's subsidiary in Italy. Takeaways on the deal were positive with analysts highlighting substantial cost synergies. The planned Swisscom dividend increase by 2026 also taken positively. Tech underperformed, mainly semiconductor stocks such as Infineon (IFX.GR). Bloomberg reported China reportedly pushing its EV industry to buy domestically-sourced chips. Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores super sector slumped nearly 3% amid a () drop in Reckitt Benckiser (RKT.LN) shares. A jury in Illinois state court issued a verdict on 13-Mar finding that Reckitt Benckiser's Mead Johnson unit was negligent in failing to warn of the risk of babies using its Enfamil baby formula potentially developing necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and awarding $60M to the plaintiff, a mother whose baby died of NEC after using Enfamil. Reckitt said it will pursue all options to have the verdict overturned. Real Estate sector weighed down by German names; Vonovia fell over (10%) post FY23 numbers along with new KPIs and change of dividend policy.

    • Looking ahead to next week, apart from the BoE (see above), there are interest rate decisions in Norway and Switzerland. Also in the coming week: EU Summit, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Mar flash manufacturing/services PMIs as well as earnings/updates out from the likes of Enel (ENEL.IM), Hannover Re (HNR1.GR), Partners Group (PGHN.SW), Prudential (PRU.LN), Next (NXT.LN) and Talanx (TLX.GR). Over the weekend, Sun (17th) sees the conclusion of voting in Russia's 2024 Presidential election. Incumbent Putin (one of four candidates; other three are Leonid Slutsky, Nikolai Kharitonov and Vladislav Davankov) is largely expected to win and secure a fifth term as leader. Also of note, Portugal's President is due to announce next step in attempts to form a new government following the conclusion of talks with political party/group leaders.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Telecom +1.47%, Autos & Parts +1.11%, Banks +1.11%, Basic Resources +0.74%, Insurance +0.52%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.47%, Chemicals +0.44%, Utilities +0.43%, Financial Svcs +0.41%, Energy+0.00%, Construct & Mtls (0.00%), Travel & Leisure (0.10%)

      • Underperformers:

        • Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (2.68%), Real Estate (1.95%), Technology (1.36%), Health Care (1.33%), Consumer Products and Services (1.04%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.24%), Media (0.23%)

    • Macro:

      • Central banks

        • ECB's Lane sees easing labour market stress - Reuters

        • ECB's Vujcic Says Weaker Economy Could Boost Pace of Rate Cuts - Bloomberg

        • ECB started discussing rate cut, Rehn says - Reuters

        • Swedish central bank council picks Anna Seim as new rate-setter - Reuters

        • Czech central bank expected to keep 50-bp rate cut pace: Reuters poll

      • EU

        • EU, Egypt to Strengthen Relationship as Part of Investment Plan - Bloomberg

        • EU states vote in favour of supply chain law - Handelsblatt

      • UK

        • UK public inflation expectations fall to lowest in over 2 years - FT

        • Britain to import energy from US under plan for transatlantic power cable - Telegraph

      • Russia/Ukraine

        • Vladimir Putin's victory all but certain as Russians head to the polls - Guardian

        • Three Putin challengers but little suspense - France24

        • Ukraine war: Europe split clouds Macron talks with Scholz in Berlin - BBC

      • Greece

        • Jan-Feb primary budget surplus 70% higher than expected - ekathimerini

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers:

        • +17.9% ELN.IM (El.En. €9.77, +1.48) -- FY earnings

        • +9.5% HFG.GR (HelloFresh €7.38, +0.64) -- prelim. FY earnings

        • +8.6% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK1.43, +0.11) -- IDEX Access production order from Sentry Enterprises

        • +8.2% SRP.FP (SRP Groupe €1.06, +0.08) -- FY earnings

        • +7.6% MAVI.E.TI (Mavi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret TRY152.00, +10.70) -- FY earnings

        • +6.9% HYQ.GR (Hypoport €214.00, +13.80) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade

        • +6.9% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £0.71, +0.05) -- announces sale of Vodafone Italy to Swisscom for €8B; announces €4B capital return via share buybacks

        • +6.3% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £1.58, +0.09) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade; BNP Paribas Exane upgrade; Raymond James upgrade

        • +5.0% INRN.SW (Interroll Holding CHF2,955.00, +140.00) -- FY revenue

        • +4.9% SKIS.B.SS (SkiStar SEK145.70, +6.80) -- Handelsbanken upgrade

        • +4.4% BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena €4.18, +0.18) -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgrade

        • +4.0% IMMU.SS (Mendus SEK0.46, +0.02) -- major shareholders and members of the board and Management to exercise warrants of series TO3

        • +3.7% KAP.LN (National Atomic Company Kazatomprom £39.10, +1.40) -- FY earnings

        • +3.6% GNC.LN (Greencore Group £1.11, +0.04) -- Hong Kong-based activist fund Oasis Management builds stake in Greencore - FT

        • +3.2% BOY.LN (Bodycote £6.52, +0.20) -- FY earnings; share buyback programme of up to £60M

        • +2.6% FAN.LN (Volution Group £4.36, +0.11) -- H1 earnings

        • +2.4% ADM.LN (Admiral Group £27.47, +0.64) -- UBS upgrade

        • +1.8% NXI.FP (Nexity €8.90, +0.16) -- Betaville rumors

        • +1.5% KMR.LN (Kenmare Resources £3.00, +0.04) -- Director Michael Carvill to step down

        • +0.8% SIFG.NA (Sif Holding €10.52, +0.08) -- Q4 earnings

        • +0.3% SZG.GR (Salzgitter €23.80, +0.06) -- FY earnings

        • +0.2% SRS.IM (Saras €1.76, -0.00) -- FY earnings

      • Notable Decliners:

        • -15.5% RKT.LN (Reckitt Benckiser £44.38, -8.14)

          • trading lower after $60M US jury verdict over company's alleged failure to warn of risks related to its Enfamil baby formula -- Reuters

          • issues statement in response to 13-Mar Illinois verdict; will pursue all options to have it overturned

        • -14.3% BICO.SS (BICO Group SEK40.96, -6.82) -- founders Erik Gatenholm and Hector Martinez leave after eight years

        • -11.9% DAL.IM (Datalogic €5.09, -0.69) -- FY earnings; Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade

        • -11.8% LNZ.AV (Lenzing €26.10, -3.50) -- FY earnings

        • -10.1% VNA.GR (Vonovia €24.11, -2.71) -- FY earnings; BofA downgrade

        • -9.9% BYW6.GR (BayWa €25.85, -2.85) -- suspension of FY23 dividend

        • -6.8% BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli €108.80, -8.00) -- FY earnings; Societe Generale downgrade; Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade

        • -6.3% SOON.SW (Sonova Holding CHF271.10, -18.20) -- UBS downgrade

        • -5.9% BGEO.LN (Bank of Georgia Group £48.75, -3.05) -- FY earnings; GEL 100M extension of buyback and cancellation programme

        • -4.8% CURY.LN (Currys £0.56, -0.03) -- JD.com does not intend to make offer for Currys

        • -4.3% IDL.FP (ID Logistics Group €336.00, -15.00) -- Stifel downgrade

        • -4.0% DIA.IM (DiaSorin €91.78, -3.86) -- FY earnings

        • -3.8% WBD.IM (Webuild €2.36, -0.09) -- FY earnings

        • -3.6% DUST.SS (Dustin Group SEK11.86, -0.44) -- Handelsbanken downgrade

        • -2.6% SLR.SM (Solaria Energia €10.04, -0.27) -- Societe Generale downgrade

        • -2.2% MEL.SM (Melia Hotels International €6.82, -0.15) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade

        • -1.8% BOL.FP (Bolloré €6.05, -0.11) -- FY earnings

        • -0.1% ENI.IM (Eni €14.51, -0.01) -- 2024-2027 overall net capex of €27B and an average net capex of €7B per year -- Strategic Plan

    • EU companies reporting Monday:

      • Earnings: Hannover Re (HNR1.GR), Industrie De Nora (DNR.IM), SECO (IOT.IM), Newlat Food (NWL.IM), Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies (ALHGR.FP), Parrot (PARRO.FP), Sigmaroc (SRC.LN), Marshalls (MSLH.LN), Team Internet Group (TIG.LN),

      • Traffic: Aeroports de Paris ADP (ADP.FP)

      • CMD/events: Boliden (BOL.SS)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Sweden Feb Unemployment Rate 8.5% vs consensus 9.0% and prior 8.5%

      • France Feb CPI +3.0% y/y vs preliminary +2.9%

      • Italy Feb Final CPI +0.8% y/y vs preliminary +0.8%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Apr 24): ($0.09) or (0.11%) to $81.17

      • €-$ +0.0005 or +0.04% to 1.0889

      • £-$ (0.0020) or (0.16%) to 1.2732

      • €-£ +0.0017 to 0.8552

      • S&P 500 (0.71%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: (0.08%)

        • DAX: +7.07%

        • CAC: +8.23%

        • MIB: +11.82%

        • Stoxx 600: +5.39%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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