Mar 18 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mixed. In sectors, autos and real estate the main gainers while Telco and financials underperform.
Equity market sentiment turning cautious ahead of busy macro week. Sell-side warnings that room for further gains may be limited given the extent of the rally. Market has pared by central bank rate cut expectations for this year but has not disrupted equity market rally.
Quiet macro data calendar in Europe today. February final Eurozone CPI +2.6% y/y in line with prelim. release and +0.6% m/m, while core inflation rate y/y +3.1% y/y. Lot of data due for publication over course of the week including Eurozone PMIs and sentiment data from Germany. UK CPI data due on Wednesday ahead of BoE update, though unlikely to have a big impact on this week's decision. Latest UK Lloyds Bank monthly economic tracker showed economic growth broadened out across private sector to hit ten-month high in February. Comments from ECB's Cos and Rehn reinforce June rate cut expectations.
In notable earnings and trading updates, out of DACHs, Hannover Re (HNR1.GR) reported FY numbers in line with preliminary; proposed increased dividend distribution of altogether €7.20/sh vs year-ago €6.00/sh; FY24 guidance confirmed. In other corporate updates out of the region, LPKF Laser & Electronics (LPK.GR) received a major customer order in solar while Meyer Burger Technology (MBTN.SW) launched a CHF200M rights issue. Also, Logitech International (LOGN.SW) CFO stepped down. In the UK, Marshalls (MSLH.LN) posted FY EPS 16.7p vs FactSet 15.7p and believes 2024 revenues will be lower than previously expected and profit will now be at a similar level to 2023. Currys (CURY.LN) issued a trading update and noted in the period since peak trading, sales have been stronger than the group's expectations. Bytes Technology Group (BYIT.LN) released its FY24 trading update and updated on investigation into circumstances related to resignation on 21-Feb of BTG's former CEO, Neil Murphy. Further out of the UK, Pfizer Inc. intends to sell ~630M Haleon (HLN.LN) shares, with Haleon to repurchase shares worth £315M from Pfizer off-market. In France, Korean Air Lines is reportedly near deal to purchase around 20 A350 planes from Airbus (AIR.FP) and Kering (KER.FP) denied local press reports it was interested in Selfridges stake.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Germany Mar ZEW survey and Switzerland Feb trade balance (monthly watch data).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Autos & Parts +0.87%, Real Estate+0.60%, Oil & Gas +0.39%, Technology +0.29%, Banks +0.15%, Chemicals +0.01%, Health Care (0.02%)
Underperformers
Telecom (1.42%), Financial Svcs (0.96%), Travel & Leisure (0.80%), Food & Beverage (0.70%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.57%), Basic Resources (0.48%), Utilities (0.38%), Retail (0.33%), Construct & Mtls (0.29%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.26%), Media (0.25%), Insurance (0.17%)
Macro:
Central Banks:
EU:
EU pledges billions of euros to Egypt for help stopping illegal migrants -- Telegraph
New AI regulation in the EU seeks to reduce risk without assessing public benefit -- NatureMedicine
Polish farmers block crossings on German border again -- DW
UK:
Germany:
German living standards plummeted after Russia invaded Ukraine, say economists -- Guardian
France:
Don't trust France to lead on European security -- UnHerd
France looking at options to increase interconnection capacity with UK -- Offshore Energy
Italy:
Italy pushes back against sending troops to Ukraine -- Decode39
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+26.9% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK1.70, +0.39) -- IDEX Pay biometric payments adopted by Turkish bank
+25.0% FARN.LN (Faron Pharmaceuticals £1.73, +0.35) -- additional positive data from Phase 1 of BEXMAB
+15.9% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF1.90, +0.29) -- Viatris R&D collaboration
+6.4% ALO.FP (Alstom €13.47, +0.79) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+6.0% CURY.LN (Currys £0.59, +0.03) -- trading update
+5.1% LPK.GR (LPKF Laser & Electronics €8.95, +0.41) -- major customer order in solar
+5.0% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings £1.72, +0.08) -- BofA upgrade
+4.8% CHG.LN (Chemring Group £3.65, +0.17) -- £90M in funding awards
+4.6% MFEB.IM (MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE €3.04, +0.13) -- FY guidance; Main holder Mediaset suggests ProSieben should separate "dating" and "e-commerce" activities -- MFEB CEO tells Corriere
+3.7% ALHGR.FP (Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies €9.30, +0.33) -- FY earnings
+3.1% SYSR.SS (Systemair SEK74.00, +2.20) -- Jefferies upgrade
+2.9% TEP.LN (Telecom Plus £15.56, +0.44) -- initiated buy at Investec
+2.0% LIGHT.NA (Signify €27.00, +0.53) -- Barclays upgrade
+2.0% RKT.LN (Reckitt Benckiser £45.81, +0.89) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+2.0% DFCH.LN (Distribution Finance Capital Holdings £0.26, +0.01) -- FY trading update
Notable Decliners
-28.0% MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology CHF0.04, -0.01) -- CHF200M rights issue; Goldman Sachs downgrade
-26.0% TUNE.LN (Focusrite £2.53, -1.00) -- FY trading update
-8.5% MSLH.LN (Marshalls £2.60, -0.25) -- FY earnings
-6.8% LOGN.SW (Logitech International CHF78.70, -5.74) -- CFO Charles 'Chuck' Boynton to step down
-6.6% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.28, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
-6.2% VID.SM (Vidrala €94.00, -6.00) -- Oddo downgrade
-3.6% BOL.SS (Boliden SEK289.20, -10.50) -- updates FY investment guidance 2024
-3.1% BO.DC (Bang & Olufsen DKK9.18, -0.30) -- prelim Q3 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW), Georg Fischer (GF.SW), Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide (FRA.GR), Deutsche EuroShop (DEQ.GR), PAUL HARTMANN (PHH2.GR), DEUTZ (DEZ.GR), Amadeus FiRe (AAD.GR), Semperit (SEM.AV)
France: Virbac (VIRP.FP), Visiativ (ALVIV.FP), Haulotte Group (PIG.FP)
Nordics: Fluegger Group (FLUG.B.DC)
Southern Europe: TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN.IM), Piovan (PVN.IM), FILA - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini (FILA.IM), Sabaf (SAB.IM), B&C Speakers (BEC.IM)
UK: Trustpilot Group (TRST.LN), Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN), Essentra (ESNT.LN), Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (MAB1.LN), M.P. Evans Group (MPE.LN), Midwich Group (MIDW.LN), Sabre Insurance Group (SBRE.LN), Wickes Group (WIX.LN), Videndum (VID.LN), Fintel (FNTL.LN), DFS Furniture (DFS.LN), Eagle Eye Solutions Group (EYE.LN), Zotefoams (ZTF.LN), Personal Group Holdings (PGH.LN), Tissue Regenix Group (TRX.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone
Jan Trade Balance €11.4B vs consensus €20.0B and prior €16.8B
Feb Final CPI +2.6% y/y vs preliminary +2.6%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 24): +$1.13 or +1.39% to $82.17
€-$ (0.0015) or (0.14%) to 1.0874
£-$ (0.0010) or (0.08%) to 1.2724
€-£ (0.0001) to 0.8547
S&P 500 +0.87%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: (0.14%)
DAX: +7.05%
CAC: +8.02%
MIB: +11.83%
Stoxx 600: +5.21%
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