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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei 0.00%, Hang Seng +0.08%, Shanghai Composite +0.55% as of 04:10 ET

Mar 20 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities mostly higher Wednesday. Kospi was strongest, underpinned by Samsung's rise. Greater China ended higher after tepid start. Japan closed for Vernal Equinox Day. Taiex and ASX logged mild losses. India trading higher. S&P futures inching slightly lower after index finished another record high Tuesday. Muted bond market action with no trading in Treasuries in Asian hours while 10Y yields slightly down at London open. Yen weakness continued after BOJ policy change to lowest against dollar since Nov-2023. Crude oil edging lower, gold little changed, bitcoin trading higher in Asian afternoon.

    • China left 1Y and 5Y LPRs unchanged as widely expected after keeping MLF rate on hold last Friday. Easing expectations fanned recently by dovish comments from PBOC Governor Pan at NPC. Economists continue to look for further rate cuts in 2024 with additional funding from Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) facility to support housing. However, there also remain doubts about policy efficacy amid calls for fiscal stimulus to assume greater role in reviving consumption. Biden administration is weighing fresh sanctions on Chinese semiconductor firms linked to Huawei.

    • In other developments, Fed expected to leave rates unchanged Wednesday. Markets pricing in ~70 bp of easing in 2024 and less than 50% chance of a June cut after recent data showed stronger US economic growth and upside surprise in CPI and PPI data. BOJ takeaways delved into policy trajectory beyond March with Governor Ueda reiterating financial conditions to remain accommodative. Some thought more rate hikes on the table in 2024 with real rates still deeply negative and yen depreciating towards lowest since Nov-2023. Governor Ueda also flagged potential for further tightening as wage/price trends fuel rise in inflation expectations. Bank Indonesia left benchmark interest rate unchanged for fifth straight month. Taiwan exports in February shrank by more than 10% y/y, much worse than expectations.

    • Nvidia (NVDA) plans to procure high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips from Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) as Nvidia is in process of qualifying Samsung's HBM chips and will start using them in future. Samsung shares gained most in more than six months. Meanwhile, SK Hynix (000660.KS) has started volume production of next-generation high-bandwidth memory chip, HBM3E, which will first be shipped to Nvidia for use in Blackwell GPUs. Xiaomi (1810.HK) declared ambition for its maiden EV SU7, which goes on sale on 28-Mar, to become one of China's three best-selling luxury EV models. Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook seen in Shanghai, one day before opening of new Apple store in the city.

  • Digest:

    • China LPRs steady as expected:

      • LPRs were left unchanged with the 1-year rate at 3.45% and 5-year rate at 3.95%, in line with unanimous expectations. Follows steady MLF rate last week. However, recall last month when MLF rate was unchanged, yet followed by a record cut to the 5y LPR amid mounting calls for more policy support for the property sector, reaffirming persistent risk of a change in LPR independent of the MLF basis. Usual yuan depreciation risk was cited as the main constraint against rate cuts, somewhat strengthened by PBOC Governor Pan's comments at the NPC reiterating a commitment to keep yuan stable in light of recent weakness. On the other hand, Pan also touted "rich monetary policy tools at its disposal" including RRR, flagging scope for further easing. Economists look for another year of moderate reductions to MLF/LPR/RRR rates. Main addition to expectations was new funding from the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) facility with estimates ranging up to CNY1T to support public housing and infrastructure. Bulk of the onus on stimulus lies with fiscal policy, and while additional CNY1T in special treasury bond issuance was announced at the NPC, total measures were seen as insufficient for the government to achieve its growth target of around 5% this year.

    • BOJ policy normalization receives government support, joint accord to continue:

      • Kyodo reported Prime Minister Kishida met with BOJ Governor Ueda Tuesday and told reporters the central bank's decision to remove unconventional easing framework was "appropriate" and pledged to keep working with the BOJ to stabilize prices. Added BOJ "has stepped into a new phase to generate positive economic outcomes" while "maintaining an accommodative environment." Kishida refrained from confirming whether the government would declare an official end to deflation in the near-term, only saying it would make a "comprehensive judgement." Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said the government will maintain its 2013 accord with BOJ to cooperate on efforts to overcome deflation, and BOJ policy shift was an "extension" of the pact. To be sure, Nikkei editorial suggested government officials were open to an earlier move, mainly due to anxiety over yen weakness, though the Noto Peninsula earthquake pushed back the window from January to March/April. Strong shunto wage hikes, as well as government support, tipped the scales in favor of March, which a BOJ insider noted is a month they would typically avoid given the corporate fiscal year-end.

    • No clear consensus on follow-up BOJ rate hike or terminate rate:

      • Bloomberg discussed the division of views over the timing of the next BOJ rate hike. Alignment was limited to expectations of a gradual trajectory but Governor Ueda's remarks at his press conference prompted diverging interpretations. Dovish takes leaned toward BOJ guidance that policy would remain accommodative for the time being. But Ueda has counterbalanced that by emphasizing real rates remain deeply negative and acknowledged risks stemming from yen weakness. Consensus looks for the target rate to finish the year at 0.1%, indicating no further hikes as the main scenario. Yet, the article noted plenty of views warning of the potential for further moves. BOJ electing to raise rates in March instead of the April consensus prompted thoughts Ueda has opened the window for another move this year if warranted. Story also noted a wide range of analyst estimates for the expected terminal rate around the consensus average of 0.5%, citing a couple as high as 2% or 2.5%. Fits with Ueda's comments yesterday noting the difficulties in calculations. Some thoughts shunto pay raises were strong enough to augur for another hike this year. Contrasting views noted softening growth momentum and inflation while other central banks are on the cusp of an easing shift.

    • BOJ cutbacks to upper limit of JGB purchase range seen as meaningful:

      • Reuters discussed secondary takeaways from the BOJ meeting yesterday highlighting the accompanying Q2 JGB purchase schedule which significantly lowered the upper bound of the guidance range in key segments. Maximum for 5y~10y zone was lowered to JPY550B ($3.65B) from prior JPY900B, 3y~5y trimmed to JPY500B from JPY750B. Operation frequency remained unchanged. Policy statement noted BOJ to maintain JGB purchases at a pace "broadly the same amount as before." Footnote clarified pace currently about JPY6T per month, adding that purchase plans will continue to be announced with a range while taking account of market developments and supply-demand conditions in the JGB market. Story cited reactions from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management describing the change as "drastic"; noted yields may rise but saw this as positive for traders given the implication that BOJ has begun relinquishing control of yields to the market. No direct confirmation from Governor Ueda at his press conference, though downplayed JGB purchases as an active policy tool while promoting the restoration of the short-term rate as the main conduit for policy decisions.

    • Indian stocks struggling for traction in 2024, but election viewed as upside catalyst:

      • Indian equities have struggled for traction in 2024 with Nifty 50 little changed year-to-date, underperforming global benchmarks. Situation a notable contrast to 2023 when Indian stocks were among world leading gainers. Tepid performance has corresponded with waning foreign investor enthusiasm with Bloomberg noting monthly foreign flows have been uneven since mid-2023. Foreign ownership of Indian stocks has also eased to 17.1% from ~17.7% in mid-2023. Rich valuations, concerns over speculative excess in small-caps and increased regulatory scrutiny on non-bank financial companies partly attributed for recent underperformance. However, some sell-side analysts remain bullish on outlook, arguing Indian stocks deserve higher multiples given stronger economic growth, political stability, loftier earnings growth and geopolitical tailwinds. Expected election win by PM Modi's BJP in April elections viewed as an upside catalyst with party expected to push market-friendly policies that attract FDI. More broadly, Indian asset flows will be aided further by pending inclusion of its bonds in global indexes.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +12.2% 1821.HK (ESR Group): shareholder Redwood Investment to transfer 10.657% stake to Sequoia Investco (Starwood Capital)

      • +6.8% 2057.HK (ZTO Express): reports Q4 adjusted EBITDA CNY3.65B vs StreetAccount CNY3.61B; declares FY23 cash dividend $0.62 per ADS and ordinary share, +68% y/y; to upsize share repurchase program with $500M

      • +5.6% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): reportedly looking at buying parts of Continental's electronics business

      • +2.7% 762.HK (China Unicom (Hong Kong)): reports FY net income attributable CNY18.73B vs StreetAccount CNY18.67B; declares final dividend CNY0.1336/share vs year-ago CNY0.109/share

      • +2% 9868.HK (XPeng, Inc.): reports Q4 GAAP income from operations (CNY2.05B) vs year-ago (CNY2.52B); guides Q1 revenue CNY5.8-6.2B vs FactSet CNY10.69B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -2.6% 1810.HK (Xiaomi): reports Q4 revenue CNY73.24B vs FactSet CNY73.29B

      • -2.2% 600585.CH (Anhui Conch Cement): reports FY CAS net income attributable CNY10.43B vs FactSet CNY11.47B, operating income CNY13.14B vs FactSet CNY13.23B; declares FY dividend CNY0.96/share vs CNY1.48/share

      • -0.5% 175.HK (Geely Automobile Holdings): reports FY net income attributable CNY5.31B vs FactSet CNY4.86B, revenue CNY179.20B vs FactSet CNY178.81B

  • Data:

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 0.00 or 0.00% to 40003.60

      • Hang Seng: 13.59 or +0.08% to 16543.07

      • Shanghai Composite: 16.93 or +0.55% to 3079.69

      • Shenzhen Composite: 10.90 or +0.61% to 1806.61

      • ASX200: (7.40) or (0.10%) to 7695.80

      • KOSPI: 33.97 or +1.28% to 2690.14

      • SENSEX: 246.70 or +0.34% to 72258.74

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.63 or +0.42% to 151.4950

      • $-KRW: +2.40 or +0.18% to 1339.8800

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.14%) to 0.6524

      • $-INR: +0.08 or +0.10% to 83.1073

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1984

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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