Mar 20 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed after moving off earlier lows. Personal & Household Goods amidst the leading decliners with Luxury names leading following profit warning by Gucci owner Kering (KER.FP); oil & gas, financial services also under pressure. To the upside, utilities, chemicals and retail outperform. Treasuries slightly firmer after snapping a six-session losing streak on Tuesday. Dollar index up 0.5% with yen weakness again the story in FX. Gold flat. Bitcoin futures down 1.1%. WTI crude off 1.8%. US markets higher at this time. Market participants await for this afternoon's Fed meeting; expectations are for rates to be left unchanged. Updated dot plot to get most of the attention amid risk that 2024 median shifts down to two rate cuts from three. Markets pricing in ~70 bps of easing in 2024 and less than 50% chance of a June cut.
In macro headlines out of Europe today, ECB spokesman said policymakers plan to publish internal pay measures used to gauge inflation risks later this year to give greater clarity on decision making. ECB President Lagarde says latest wage data encouraging. On macro data front, UK inflation continues to ease but services prices still showing signs of stickiness. German PPI weaker-than-forecast. Survey for UK's XpertHR showing pay deals heading lower. Ahead of tomorrow's BoE meeting, Times shadow MPC voted 8-1 in keeping rates steady on Thursday, but with signal for summer rate cut.
In notable corporate updates, attention in the morning turned to luxury goods stocks after Kering (KER.FP) profit warning late Tuesday that Q1 sales likely to drop by ~ (10%), weighed down by star label Gucci. Further out of France, Bureau Veritas (BVI.FP) held its CMD today with the group presenting its 2028 strategy and financial ambitions and announces €200M buyback for FY24; company also agrees to acquire two companies in Korea and one in India. In other notable earnings updates, Prudential (PRU.LN) FY profit missed, APE sales in-line, new business profit beat; guided 2024. Poste Italiane (PST.IM) publishes 2024-2028 plan. Deutsche Wohnen (DWNI.GR) FY FFO, adj EBITDA beat; net income missed.
On the M&A news flow, Lonza (LONN.SW) to acquire large-scale biologics site in Vacaville from Roche (ROG.SW) for $1.2B in cash; as the transaction is expected to be accretive to sales growth, Lonza also updated its Mid-Term guidance 2024 - 2028. Johnson Matthey (JMAT.LN) signed agreement to sell its Medical Device Components business to Montagu Private Equity for $700M. Press reports suggest US pressuring Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI.AV) to drop plans to buy a $1.6B industrial stake of Russian tycoon in Austrian construction group Strabag (STR.AV).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Utilities +1.04%, Chemicals +0.92%, Real Estate +0.75%, Retail +0.67%, Construct & Mtls +0.55%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.49%, Telecom +0.28%, Media +0.12%, Autos & Parts +0.11%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.06%, Health Care +0.01%
Underperformers:
Consumer Products and Services (1.42%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.88%), Oil & Gas(0.61%), Financial Svcs (0.35%), Insurance (0.28%), Travel & Leisure (0.14%), Banks (0.07%), Technology (0.03%)
Macro:
Central Banks:
UK:
UK headline inflation slowest since September 2021, but services still sticky: Bloomberg
UK's Hunt says no plan to change how banks are paid to hold reserves at BoE: Reuters
Tories narrowly back Sunak to lead party into next election: The Telegraph
Chancellor hints at October election; bill for smoke-free generation to be introduced: Sky
Geopolitics:
Peripheral markets:
Ireland:
PM unexpectedly quits: Reuters
Greece:
Raises €250M from June 2028 bond reopening: Kathimerini
Poland:
Polish farmers intensify protests against 'executioner' EU: Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+17.2% LO24.GR (Lotto24 €450.00, +66.00) -- ZEAL Network reaches 95% stake in Lotto24 AG; announces squeeze-out
+9.1% ALPH.LN (Alpha Group International £17.90, +1.50) -- earnings; management change
+8.6% JMAT.LN (Johnson Matthey £18.54, +1.47) -- divestment
+8.6% BEN.FP (Beneteau €13.84, +1.10) -- earnings
+8.1% IQG.LN (IQGeo Group £4.16, +0.31) -- earnings
+6.4% SAS.SS (SAS SEK0.03, -0.00) -- court approval of chapter 11 plan
+5.9% EQLS.LN (Equals Group £1.16, +0.06) -- trading update; confirms it has received indicative non-binding proposal from consortium comprising Embedded Finance Limited and TowerBrook Capital Partners
+5.7% LONN.SW (Lonza Group CHF509.60, +27.40) -- acquisition; updates mid-term guidance
+4.5% BIOS.BB (BioSenic €0.02, -0.00) -- data presentation
+4.0% BOCH.CY (Bank of Cyprus Holdings €3.67, +0.14) -- dividend; buyback
+4.0% INH.GR (INDUS Holding €25.75, +1.00) -- earnings
+4.0% TRN.IM (TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale €7.88, +0.30) -- earnings; Goldman Sachs upgrade
+3.6% INVP.LN (Investec £5.09, +0.18) -- trading update
+3.1% ETL.FP (Eutelsat Communications €3.80, +0.12) -- partnership
+2.8% PZS.GR (Scherzer & Co. €2.24, +0.06) -- comments on Lotto24 AG squeeze-out
+2.7% PCZ.GR (ProCredit Holding €8.40, +0.22) -- earnings
+2.4% BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas €27.45, +0.65) -- issues 2028 strategy and financial ambitions; announces €200M buyback for FY24; acquisitions - CMD
+2.3% CPHN.SW (CPH Chemie + Papier Holding CHF87.60, +2.00) -- to split into two companies; holders to receive dividend in kind
+2.1% TIT.IM (Telecom Italia €0.22, -0.00) -- minority investor Merlyn Partners considering putting forward alternative slate of board candidates - Bloomberg
+2.0% ALCOX.FP (Nicox €0.40, +0.01) -- trial results publication
+1.4% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF2.28, +0.03) -- FDA approval for Tryvio
+1.4% OXB.LN (Oxford BioMedica £1.89, +0.03) -- updates on CDMO Services Including New Commercial Agreement
+1.2% PAY.LN (PayPoint £4.88, +0.06) -- expands long-standing relationship with Lloyds Bank Cardnet Merchant Services (LLOY.LN)
Notable Decliners
-17.0% FDM.LN (FDM Group (Holdings) £3.24, -0.67) -- earnings
-13.9% ETH.IM (Eurotech SpA €1.86, -0.30) -- earnings
-11.5% VLA.FP (Valneva €3.34, -0.44) -- earnings
-11.2% KER.FP (Kering €378.15, -47.80) -- profit warning
-5.8% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £3.45, -0.21)
-3.0% BRBY.LN (Burberry Group £11.93, -0.37)
-2.2% CFR.SW (Richemont CHF136.80, -3.05)
-2.2% SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo €11.10, -0.25)
-1.4% MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton €848.40, -11.80)
-10.7% EKF.LN (EKF Diagnostics Holdings £0.24, -0.03) -- final earnings
-6.5% CCC.LN (Computacenter £27.50, -1.92) -- earnings
-6.2% TPE.GR (PVA TePla €19.97, -1.33) -- earnings
-3.8% PST.IM (Poste Italiane €11.48, -0.45) -- publishes 2024-28 Strategic Plan; confirms 2023 prelim earnings
-3.7% PRU.LN (Prudential £7.52, -0.29) -- earnings
-3.0% NOHO.FH (NoHo Partners €7.74, -0.24) -- CEO steps down
-2.7% VIRP.FP (Virbac €329.00, -9.00) -- earnings
-2.5% DWNI.GR (Deutsche Wohnen €17.86, -0.45) -- earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Ion Beam Applications (IBAB.BB)
DACHs: Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW.GR), Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3.GR),United Internet (UTDI.GR), Talanx (TLX.GR), Nemetschek (NEM.GR), 1&1 (1U1.GR), IONOS Group (IOS.GR), Vossloh (VOS.GR), STRATEC (SBS.GR), Hamburger Hafen und Logistik (HHFA.GR), LPKF Laser & Electronics (LPK.GR), init innovation in traffic systems (IXX.GR), IVU Traffic Technologies (IVU.GR), technotrans (TTR1.GR), The Swatch Group (UHR.SW), DocMorris (DOCM.SW), PORR (POS.AV)
France: Innate Pharma (IPH.FP), Wallix Group (ALLIX.FP)
Nordics: SP Group (SPG.DC)
Southern Europe: Enel (ENEL.IM)
UK: Next (NXT.LN), M&G (MGN.LN), Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG.LN), Energean (ENOG.LN), Ithaca Energy (ITH.LN), Centamin (CEY.LN), Judges Scientific (JDG.LN), Hostelworld Group (HSW.LN), Aptitude Software Group (APTD.LN), Aquis Exchange (AQX.LN), Tribal Group (TRB.LN)
CMD/events: Iberdrola (IBE.SM) ESG, Indra Sistemas (IDR.SM),ENAV (ENAV.IM), doValue (DOV.IM), Bayer (BAYN.GR) Pharma media day, ProCredit Holding (PCZ.GR), Mentice (MNRC.SS), TBC Bank Group (TBCG.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone
Mar Flash Consumer Confidence (14.9) vs cons (15.0) and prior (15.5)
Jan Construction Output +0.8% y/y vs cons +2.0% and prior revised +2.8% from +1.9%
UK Feb
CPI +3.4% y/y vs consensus +3.5% and prior +4.0%; +0.6% m/m vs consensus +0.7% and prior (0.6%)
Core +4.5% y/y vs consensus +4.6% and prior +5.1%
RPI +4.5% y/y vs cons +4.5% and prior +4.9%; +0.8% m/m vs cons +0.7% and prior (0.3%)
Output PPI +0.4% y/y vs cons (0.1%) and prior revised (0.3%) from (0.6%); +0.3% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior revised 0.0% from (0.2%)
Input PPI (2.7%) y/y vs cons (2.7%) and prior revised (2.8%) from (3.3%); (0.4%) m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior revised (0.1%) from (0.8%)
Germany Feb PPI (4.1%) y/y vs cons (3.8%) and prior (4.4%); (0.4%) m/m vs cons (0.1%) and prior +0.2%
Italy Jan Industrial Production (3.4%) y/y vs cons (2.8%) and prior revised (1.5%) from (2.1%); (1.2%) m/m vs cons (0.5%) and prior revised +1.2% from +1.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 24): ($1.82) or (2.18%) to $81.65
€-$ (0.0008) or (0.07%) to 1.0859
£-$ (0.0009) or (0.07%) to 1.2714
€-£ (0.0004) to 0.8539
S&P 500 (0.02%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +0.05%
DAX: +7.54%
CAC: +8.20%
MIB: +13.00%
Stoxx 600: +5.47%
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