Mar 28 ,2024
Synopsis:
The Asia Market Recap will not be published on Friday 29-Mar and will resume on 1-Apr.
Asian equities again finished mixed Thursday in another quiet session as the month and quarter draw to a close. Greater China markets among the gainers although the main benchmarks were off their highs by the bell. Australia higher as bank and mining names gained. India ending the month with solid gains. On the downside, Japan's Topix and Nikkei saw some sharp losses on re-balancing and profit taking dynamics. South Korea and Taiwan both lower. Southeast Asia also mainly lower. US futures largely unchanged, Europe opening slightly higher. US dollar unchanged, pressure on AUD and NZD but other forex quiet. Treasury yields mostly higher, JGB 10Y yield at month-long low. Crude oil higher, precious metals and industrial metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies higher.
China markets at least ended March on a high. The Hang Seng closed just 0.2% higher for the month with mainland bourses mostly down in a volatile period as more supportive economic data was eyed with skepticism by markets that questioned its sustainability just as the yuan weakened and the bond rally stalled. Today, the modest rally attributed by some to a SCMP article that said President Xi had instructed the PBOC to increase the trading of treasury bonds, last used more than 20 years ago in a prelude to a broad stimulus plan. The rally petered out in the afternoon session as traders turned cautious ahead of the long weekend.
Currencies again taking the spotlight after more BOJ-speak and March Summary of Opinions that warned over excessive moves on the yen on the one hand, yet emphasized accommodative monetary policy on the other. Markets continue to trade the yen just below the 152 per dollar mark, considered a red line for the BOJ in terms of intervention. The yuan also weakened in March amid much discussion on whether the PBOC wants to free the currency to market processes or keep a tight grip on its range. Few fresh clues today per se, although a Bloomberg article noted the five-month long CGB bond rally may end, partly as traders begin to see a weaker yuan ahead.
In macro developments, Australia retail sales slowed by more than expected despite one-off benefits from Taylor Swift concerts. New Zealand business confidence weakened again, though accompanied by drop in inflation pressures. Thailand industrial output fell by less than expected in February. Singapore producer prices contracted 2.8% y/y in February.
Authorities said to be readying fuel to be inserted into one of Tokyo Electric Power's (~9501.JP~) nuclear power plants as early as mid-April. BYD (~1211.HK~) says it targets 20% growth in annual sales including 500K overseas unit sales next year (Reuters). A Shimao Group (~813.HK~) ad hoc bondholder group "firmly opposes" the company's debt restructuring proposal while a second group is also said to be discontented with the terms. 360 Capital Group (~TGP.AU~) sold a stake in Hotel Property Investments for A$96.9M, almost A$14M above the carry value of the stake. The Adani family has injected $799M into Ambuja Cements (~500425.IN~) by increasing its stake by 3.6% to 66.7%, wants to push annual production to 140M tonnes by 2028.
Digest:
BOJ members sees shift to conventional policy as possible, future policy conduct crucial:
BOJ March Summary of Opinions showed one member said possible now to shift to conventional monetary policy where short-term rates are primary policy tool. One said important to stress March policy change does not represent regime shift to tightening, echoing another who emphasized need for cautious stance given Japan's economy not yet ready for rapid rate hikes. Another member said future policy conduct will be crucial in deliberately and steadily normalizing policy. Another warned virtuous cycle momentum at risk if expectations of future policy changes results in sudden change in financial conditions. One noted JGB purchases to be conducted flexibly with aim of avoiding rapid fluctuations in long-term interest rates, though with upper and lower allowances of around plus/minus JPY1-2T as an example. On price discussions, one member noted virtuous cycle between wages and prices has become more solid while another saw high likelihood mechanism behind price developments will remain consistent with price stability target.
Japan officials step up intervention warnings after yen fell to 34-year low:
Japan government officials stepped up intervention rhetoric after yen briefly fell to 34-year low against dollar Wednesday (Reuters). BOJ, Ministry of Finance and Financial Services Agency held meeting Wednesday to discuss yen weakness with FX chief Kanda not ruling out steps to respond to disorderly moves. Finance Minister Suzuki mentioned possibility of taking "decisive steps", marking first time he made those comments since 2022 (prior to that year's intervention). Governor Ueda also said keeping close eye on FX moves, warning of risk to economy and price outlook. While yen recovered slightly following the remarks, it remains just shy of 152-per dollar handle that some FX strategists eyeing as intervention point (Bloomberg). Recall Oct-2022 intervention occurred around this level as well. Wider Treasury-JGB yield gap attributed mostly for exerting downward pressure on yen, reflecting hawkish repricing of Fed rate path over March and dovish-leaning BOJ remarks on post-NIRP path. Bearish positioning another factor with speculative yen short contracts near six-year high (Bloomberg).
China's bond rally set to end as yields hover at record lows:
China's government bond yields set to end March only marginally lower following near five-month descent on easing monetary policy, high liquidity levels. CGB rally seen 10Y yield fall from nearly 2.75% in mid-October to 2.31% now, 30Y yield 3.0% to 2.5% in same period however prices largely stalled in March as traders grappled with expected further PBOC easing, versus expectations of higher debt issuance and potential yuan weakness ahead. Bloomberg noted traders reconsidering bond positions considering rally, as well as their risk profile given possibility of extra stimulus to support property sector; this could trigger move to riskier assets leaving them exposed and start sell-off. Beijing's stated aim to issue more debt could place upward pressure on yields, article said. Economists views split over whether markets have too aggressively priced in PBOC rate cuts as 10Y yields around 20 bps lower than 1Y policy loans, could correct sharply if economic fundamentals improve.
China's property downturn putting pressure on banks' asset quality:
Somewhat unsurprisingly, early results from China's largest state banks revealed balance sheet pressures from exposure to nation's troubled property market. Bank of Communications (3328.HK) NPL ratio for property loans climbed to 4.99% at end of 2023 from 2.8% a year earlier, while ICBC's (1398.HK) residential loan NPL ratio rose from 0.39% to 0.44% against company-wide fall. Interest rate cuts also weighed on earnings with Bocom's net interest margin falling to 1.28% from 1.48% and ICBC's dropping to 1.61% from 1.92%. Banks continue to face pressure from China's authorities to extend financing for approved development projects. However, China's deteriorating housing market and expectations of further rate cuts seen an ongoing risks to asset quality and interest margins. Early 2024 China housing data has shown showed continued large declines in new construction starts, value of new home sales and home prices. While Beijing has signaled more support for property market, measures have fallen short of the kind of large-scale measures considered necessary to revive homebuying activity.
Taylor Swift boosts Australian retail sales, New Zealand business confidence eases:
Australian February retail sales growth fell to 0.3% m/m from January's 1.1% increase, near consensus for a 0.4% lift. However, weakness masked by one-off boosts to clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (+4.2%), department stores (+2.3%) and spending on cafes, restaurants and takeaway services (+0.5%), mostly due to Taylor Swift concerts. Excluding these one-off impacts, underlying retail turnover up just 0.1% in trend terms. Household goods retailing (-0.8%) and other retailing (-0.4%) were the notable drags. New Zealand ANZ business confidence index eased to +23 in March from +34.7 in February. Accompanied by softening in firms' own activity outlook as export, investment and employment intentions fell noticeably. Inflation measures eased with services pricing intentions registering a drop and inflation expectations falling below 4% for first time since late 2021. Survey consistent with hard data showing disinflation momentum and deteriorating economic growth.
Notable Gainers:
+17.8% TGP.AU (360 Capital Group): Sells stake in Hotel Property Investments for A$96.9M
+9.6% 363.HK (Shanghai Industrial Holdings): Reports FY net income attributable HK$3.42B, +48% vs year-ago HK$2.31B
+4.3% 8088.JP (Iwatani): Reportedly to double domestic production of liquid hydrogen
+3.7% 1926.JP (Raito Kogyo Co.): Increases buyback to up to 3.7M shares from up to 1.1M shares
+2.5% 9501.JP (Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings): Nuclear fuel reportedly to be put into Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant No.7 reactor as early as mid-April
Notable Decliners:
-34.2% 867.HK (China Medical System Holdings): Reports FY adjusted net income CNY2.71B vs FactSet CNY3.23B
-22.1% 392.HK (Beijing Enterprises Holdings): Reports FY net income attributable HK$5.50B vs year-ago restated HK$6.51B
-18.8% 6855.HK (Ascentage Pharma): Reports FY net income attributable (CNY925.6M) vs year-ago (CNY882.9M)
-7.8% 581.HK (China Oriental Group): Reports FY net income attributable (CNY160M) vs year-ago CNY808M
-3.2% CU6.AU (Clarity Pharmaceuticals): Completes placement and institutional offering raising A$110M at A$2.55/share
Data:
Economic:
Australia February
Retail sales +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and +1.1% in January
Private sector credit +0.5% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and +0.4% January
New Zealand March
ANZ Business Confidence +22.9 vs +34.7 in February
Markets:
Nikkei: (594.66) or (1.46%) to 40168.07
Hang Seng: 148.58 or +0.91% to 16541.42
Shanghai Composite: 17.52 or +0.59% to 3010.66
Shenzhen Composite: 29.36 or +1.72% to 1732.61
ASX200: 77.30 or +0.99% to 7896.90
KOSPI: (9.29) or (0.34%) to 2745.82
SENSEX: 911.65 or +1.25% to 73907.96
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.10 or +0.07% to 151.4050
$-KRW: (1.55) or (0.11%) to 1349.0100
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.53%) to 0.6499
$-INR: (0.05) or (0.05%) to 83.3958
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 7.2263
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